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EUR/CHF

  • #161
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:26am Feb 4, 2010 11:26am
Everyone be ready for risk aversion to continue when Asia opens, especially yen pairs. Will probably see eur/chf fall more and possibly below last weeks low. "Dear SNB, please don't be an SOB, and push this pair back up." :oP
  • #162
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:53am Feb 4, 2010 11:53am
Quoting dual-c
Everyone be ready for risk aversion to continue when Asia opens, especially yen pairs. Will probably see eur/chf fall more and possibly below last weeks low. "Dear SNB, please don't be an SOB, and push this pair back up." :oP
This is like asking the BOJ to intervene. It does work, at least temporarily, but in effect it's like asking them to support the dollar. Not viable long term.

Likewise the Euro... Having said that, I expect them to have another go.
Gone to a better place
  • #163
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:01pm Feb 4, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting smikester
This is like asking the BOJ to intervene. It does work, at least temporarily, but in effect it's like asking them to support the dollar. Not viable long term.

Likewise the Euro... Having said that, I expect them to have another go.
Ya I know it isn't viable long term. In fact, we all know that if/when SNB intervenes again, it will descend right away. For me though, if they did intervene, I can catch it on the way up and be able to reduce or even eliminate what I have left of my drawdown. Here's only hoping. I never ever trade like this as I always use strict money management rules, but b/c of the interventions of the past, I allowed my assumptions override my rules.
  • #164
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:03pm Feb 4, 2010 12:03pm
looking at their trade balance, i would think they may well do something about their exchange levels, but not before nfp tomorrow, and i also would expect some more down side tonite on eurchf, for the risk aversion at japan opening. I imagine now how would the exporters of switzerland be screaming and making a few telephone calls. Anyway, what i do not understand is the intervention of last week. Like a wet powder shot. The timing was really good, nobody was expecting it, but they stopped the intervention half way, loosing all the possible momentum they could have created. and now, we are where we were. To me, a waste of money.
  • #165
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:10pm Feb 4, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting jackdan
Anyway, what i do not understand is the intervention of last week. Like a wet powder shot. The timing was really good, nobody was expecting it, but they stopped the intervention half way, loosing all the possible momentum they could have created. and now, we are where we were. To me, a waste of money.
I totally agree with you. Why didn't SNB shoot this thing back up closer to the 1.50 area? Knowing full well that they would have to do this again if 1.46-.47 area is the new threshold. My thinking is shoot this pair back up high enough so that in a few more months, by the time it drifts back down, their economy is strong enough to handle it where it's at. I dunno. I'm just a measly retail trader...lol
  • #166
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:12pm Feb 4, 2010 12:12pm
eur/chf ssi is 21:1 right now

21 long traders to every 1 short trader. Thats an insane ammount
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #167
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:22pm Feb 4, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting defariak
eur/chf ssi is 21:1 right now

21 long traders to every 1 short trader. Thats an insane ammount
Swiss banks deleveraging still overrides retail longs.
  • #168
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:23pm Feb 4, 2010 12:23pm
agreed normally, but its always good to know what the mob is doing.
But in a case like this when its 20:1 it starts to hold water
Im a zombie.. "Rawr"
  • #169
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:30pm Feb 4, 2010 12:30pm
Kinda waiting to see how Tokyo goes. Cause SNB never intervenes during Tokyo, or hasn't so far. And the big boys there know it.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #170
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:36pm Feb 4, 2010 12:36pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Kinda waiting to see how Tokyo goes. Cause SNB never intervenes during Tokyo, or hasn't so far. And the big boys there know it.
The earliest I have seen SNB intervene is 10 pm mountain time Canada (where I'm at) towards the latter end of Asia. That's 2 hours before Frankfurt opens.
  • #171
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:46pm Feb 4, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting jackdan
but they stopped the intervention half way, loosing all the possible momentum they could have created. and now, we are where we were. To me, a waste of money.
My theory is that it was a test. Had that trade run into substantial buy orders then the momentum would be self fulfilling. Maybe they had even set proxy buy orders higher up. But it fizzled out. What to do now?
Gone to a better place
  • #172
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:02pm Feb 4, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting smikester
My theory is that it was a test. Had that trade run into substantial buy orders then the momentum would be self fulfilling. Maybe they had even set proxy buy orders higher up. But it fizzled out. What to do now?

For my understanding, the momentum was up at 1.4850, from there, the buys would have taken the pair up above 1.50.

I dunno what they did. I read around, and still does not understand it.
  • #173
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:26pm Feb 4, 2010 1:26pm
So is anyone on this thread or reading this thread long right now on this pair? or going to get long if it drops down some more?
  • #174
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:30pm Feb 4, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting dual-c
So is anyone on this thread or reading this thread long right now on this pair? or going to get long if it drops down some more?
Hi Dual-c
im watching this pair but now seems to me strong bearish trend specially from daily chart...
Still there isn't seems to me any chance to go long...
Later on i,ll see...Maybe tomorrow
  • #175
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:31pm Feb 4, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting dual-c
So is anyone on this thread or reading this thread long right now on this pair? or going to get long if it drops down some more?
Yes, I have a long at 1.466 with a TP @ 1.475

I will add more at 1.46
  • #176
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:34pm Feb 4, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting PipHacker
Hi Dual-c
im watching this pair but now seems to me strong bearish trend specially from daily chart...
Still there isn't seems to me any chance to go long...
Later on i,ll see...Maybe tomorrow
Ya, it really makes no sense to be long right now, fundamentally speaking. However, with possible SNB intervention, there should be no reason to get in, as long as you're not risking too much.
  • #177
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:35pm Feb 4, 2010 1:35pm
Ya today very strong fundamentals moved this pair down like a rocket
  • #178
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:37pm Feb 4, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting mikekneip
Yes, I have a long at 1.466 with a TP @ 1.475

I will add more at 1.46
Hope it works out for ya. I have a buy stop 30-35 pips above where price is and will move it down as price goes down and try to catch on the way up if/when SNB jumps in.
  • #179
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:42pm Feb 4, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting dual-c
Hope it works out for ya. I have a buy stop 30-35 pips above where price is and will move it down as price goes down and try to catch on the way up if/when SNB jumps in.
no probs, only a small position ... and in case it goes wrong I sell it ... i am risking the money i made on last weeks intervention. no risk no profit
  • #180
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:44pm Feb 4, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting smikester
My theory is that it was a test. Had that trade run into substantial buy orders then the momentum would be self fulfilling. Maybe they had even set proxy buy orders higher up. But it fizzled out. What to do now?
I think they were trying to make their line in sand. They're basically saying... "either you're with the SNB or not". We could see a very massive intervention soon.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
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