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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,801
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:56am Feb 4, 2010 10:56am
Quoting black_sheep
What was the reason for that enourmous drop??

couse USD is higher against other currencies right now except for YEN...

dont really understand this...
I was wondering the same too ...
  • #14,802
  • Feb 4, 2010 10:56am Feb 4, 2010 10:56am
shit happend..long buy bye.. lol
  • #14,803
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:00am Feb 4, 2010 11:00am
Quoting moonrider
shit happend..long buy bye.. lol
Long buy 17 minutes ago would give you a 50 pips profit. When did you enter ?
  • #14,804
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:01am Feb 4, 2010 11:01am
Quoting pqt
Good point. But between now and then, they'll try to push it down as low as they could to buy for cheap!
  • #14,805
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:04am Feb 4, 2010 11:04am
Quoting moonrider
shit happend..long buy bye.. lol
Can I ask what made you go for a long shot ? I attached my graph. There was clearly a bearish move coming.

What was causing the fast drop.. Big players saw a perfect pattern ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,806
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:04am Feb 4, 2010 11:04am
Quoting black_sheep
What was the reason for that enourmous drop??

couse USD is higher against other currencies right now except for YEN...

dont really understand this...


Edit:
OK, i see now. It was something, that push Yen up in the sky...

Risk aversion is the answer. The eur and commodities are risk appetite pairs and the usd pairs and jpy pairs are risk aversion pairs. So when the euro zone, uk and other countries have issues investors become risk adversed. The jpy is considered safer so it would right now because they aren't expected to raise interest rates like we are expecting to do. This means when investors go risk adversed usd will gain strength and jpy will gain even more strength. It will go back up so I wouldn't worry too much. Plus the big guys wanna set little guys like me and you up to make us think we should be short. My advice is go long on usdjpy because I believe it will pay off big time for not weeks to come but for months to even years but definitely months.

For better understanding, look for a thread named: how to identify medium and long term market trends or look for the thread creator Razorjack. He explains it. Until I read is thread last week I didn't understand fundies at all. A week ago I would be freaking out right now.
  • #14,807
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:07am Feb 4, 2010 11:07am
This thing will probably retrace back to the point where it started plunging ...
  • #14,808
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:08am Feb 4, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Schminner
This thing will probably retrace back to the point where it started plunging ...
Are you making this trade ?
  • #14,809
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:12am Feb 4, 2010 11:12am
Hey guys ! what happened?is it back to 90.80?when?
Be cool in trade
  • #14,810
  • Feb 4, 2010 11:13am Feb 4, 2010 11:13am
Quoting alidoust
Hey guys ! what happened?is it back to 90.80?when?
Not on Oanda.
Your broker is ripping you off.
  • #14,811
  • Feb 4, 2010 12:59pm Feb 4, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Kas1
I wouldn't say the downtrend is over, look at the daily chart...the retracement we've seen the last couple days looks exhausted from the 4hr...too soon to short for me, but I think we may see a drop to 8875 area in the next week or so...
After a small breakout north, the drop came...but too fast for me to short anything...I doubt it will move down much more this week.
  • #14,812
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:17pm Feb 4, 2010 1:17pm
May have been the end to the swing started on Dec 30th or it may be the start of a test for the market to see if we are really out of this recession or not. We knew we were due in for a correction in the new york market... just don't know how big it will be.
  • #14,813
  • Feb 4, 2010 1:46pm Feb 4, 2010 1:46pm
My view on how its going to go
Attached Image
  • #14,814
  • Feb 4, 2010 3:49pm Feb 4, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting dre3029
Risk aversion is the answer....
Hey i completely agree with what you've written, today's big move was a result of risk avesrion in the markets on the back worse than expected gloabal data which had trader running for the safety of the USD and JPY! Thought i might add a bit to support you

As the U.S and global economy teetered on the edge of financial meltdown the FED entered into a cycle which resulted in interest rates falling to almost zero, as a consequence they have depreciated the value of the greenback to historical and unsustainable levels against the Japanese Yen.
During this period of near zero interest rates the Usd replaced the Jpy as the funding currency for the so called carry trade where investors borrow one currency on the cheap and invest in to higher yielding instruments. When the U.S recovery gradually gains traction and turns the corner towards sustainable positive growth, inflationary issues will come to light as a result of the billions of dollars that have entered the markets through the numerous stimulus packages. At this juncture the FED will begin to hike rates from the current historical lows. This will in ensure the traditional interest rate differential return to pro Usd and we will witness the unwinding of Usd funded carry trades.


I fully expect the Usd/Jpy to reach at least 100, 110 or possibly 124 (the pre crisis high!). Me personally, i'll be buying dips, cost averaging. I think this is a great long term play!
  • #14,815
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:16pm Feb 4, 2010 4:16pm
I'm still long also. Don't like it with NFP tomorrow tho hah.
  • #14,816
  • Feb 4, 2010 4:49pm Feb 4, 2010 4:49pm
Yep i know, the NFP will be interesting! But the further it falls, the cheaper it will be
  • #14,817
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:50pm Feb 4, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting Juneman
My view on how its going to go
it's nicer if you cite your charts from trading central, instead of saying my veiw
  • #14,818
  • Feb 4, 2010 7:03pm Feb 4, 2010 7:03pm
looks like what i posted monday could stil play out:

i dont know what you guys say
but as long we are under dayly 50ma and in the bear channel
and a kind of H/S it stil look bearish to me
and a break of 89.30 could still take it down to
88.20 or even 87 before a move up
but thats my vue
what are yours?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,819
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:08pm Feb 4, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting bshcom
looks like what i posted monday could stil play out:

i dont know what you guys say
but as long we are under dayly 50ma and in the bear channel
and a kind of H/S it stil look bearish to me
and a break of 89.30 could still take it down to
88.20 or even 87 before a move up
but thats my vue
what are yours?
prepared to take more long then. he3. this pair is scary, but it make my adrenalin pump more. phew. hopefuly i have enough shot to make profit in this pair.
  • #14,820
  • Feb 4, 2010 8:36pm Feb 4, 2010 8:36pm
closed my long +65
it could maybe retrace to 90.00-90.50
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