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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,721
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:31am Jan 30, 2010 2:31am
Quoting deanbo
Nikkei is down as well. 85.00 not too far away?
The downtrend is over dude....wake up. Daily candle closed above the previous for the last 2 days.
  • #14,722
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:03pm Jan 30, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Honored
The downtrend is over dude....wake up. Daily candle closed above the previous for the last 2 days.
I wouldn't say the downtrend is over, look at the daily chart...the retracement we've seen the last couple days looks exhausted from the 4hr...too soon to short for me, but I think we may see a drop to 8875 area in the next week or so...
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  • #14,723
  • Jan 30, 2010 2:38pm Jan 30, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Honored
The downtrend is over dude....wake up. Daily candle closed above the previous for the last 2 days.
oh really?
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  • #14,724
  • Edited 3:31pm Jan 30, 2010 2:48pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
oh really?
The downtrend might not be over as no one can predict prices with such accuracy, but he is correct about the daily closing prices, as a matter of fact, friday's close of 90.25 was the highest daily close of the last 6 trading days.

In addition fundamentaly you have the following that will help USD vs. JPY:
1. FOMC tone.
2. Bernanke confirmation.
3. Latest US GDP.
4. Talk about Iran rocket launchings amid new sanctions.

Old habits die hard, but all trends eventually change direction.
What is holding this down is the DOW and Nikkei, if these stabilize, and this is a big if, this could easily test 92.50 short term.
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  • #14,725
  • Edited 3:53pm Jan 30, 2010 3:37pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting wwwin
The downtrend might not be over as no one can predict prices with such accuracy, but he is correct about the daily closing prices, as a matter of fact, friday's close of 90.25 was the highest daily close of the last 6 trading days.

In addition fundamentaly you have the following that will help USD vs. JPY:
1. FOMC tone.
2. Bernanke confirmation.
3. Latest US GDP.
4. Talk about Iran rocket launchings amid new sanctions.

Old habits die hard, but all trends eventually change direction.
What is holding this down is the DOW and Nikkei, if these stabilize,...
hi wwwin, fundamental aside , I dont see USDJPY trend up unless this levels are broken ,
for me the Daily/weekly/monthy are bearish as far as these levels hold and 4h has the only bullish bais as far as 89.50 holds
btw you mentioned the correlation between USDJPY and dow, dow has been increasing since march 09 till recently and this pair made a new low just two month ago how do you explain that? weak USD is the answer but I think we are gonna see more downside in the stocks in general ,will that bring this pair up while USD is getting stronger (due to risk aversion), I dont know, there has been a negative correlation between stocks and USD since 2008 (weak S&P ,strong USD) , but now they start to say strong US GDP is the reason behind the USD, so what about DJI sell off after the GDP news? how can be that explained?
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  • #14,726
  • Jan 30, 2010 4:41pm Jan 30, 2010 4:41pm
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Elliott wave: the "double three", the "triple three."
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  • #14,727
  • Jan 31, 2010 12:38am Jan 31, 2010 12:38am
Quoting Kas1
I wouldn't say the downtrend is over, look at the daily chart...the retracement we've seen the last couple days looks exhausted from the 4hr...too soon to short for me, but I think we may see a drop to 8875 area in the next week or so...
you could be right, but we need to see a 150 pip drop for a new low below 89.12 this coming week to continue the downtrend, if not, then it might break 91.88 and go up from here. so right now we are exactly in the middle at 90.25. May be the high of 90.91 on friday was due to the FOMC/GDP data.

So next week should be interesting.
  • #14,728
  • Jan 31, 2010 10:24am Jan 31, 2010 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
,... but now they start to say strong US GDP is the reason behind the USD, so what about DJI sell off after the GDP news? how can be that explained?
I think the dow sold off even with strong GDP because of warnings from tech stocks, also Microsoft said that they had not seen pick up in business server software, also some people question whether the GDP can be sustained b/c 60% of the GDP was to replenish inventory....I don' think that the DOW has to rally for this to go up...I just wrote "stabilize" meaning stop sharp selling off due to risk aversion, b/c if too much risk aversion, like now, the dollar would go down again the Yen but will go up against all the others as has been happening lately.
  • #14,729
  • Jan 31, 2010 1:33pm Jan 31, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Honored
you could be right, but we need to see a 150 pip drop for a new low below 89.12 this coming week to continue the downtrend, if not, then it might break 91.88 and go up from here. so right now we are exactly in the middle at 90.25. May be the high of 90.91 on friday was due to the FOMC/GDP data.

So next week should be interesting.
You're right it could break the resistance that I illustrated before, if it does I mite look to go long...but friday's up move was supported by lower volume and a wide range on the daily chart...I wouldn't wait for a break of last week's low to look for shorts...lots of reasons why things happen, some hidden more then others...
  • #14,730
  • Jan 31, 2010 1:46pm Jan 31, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Kas1
You're right it could break the resistance that I illustrated before, if it does I mite look to go long...but friday's up move was supported by lower volume and a wide range on the daily chart...I wouldn't wait for a break of last week's low to look for shorts...lots of reasons why things happen, some hidden more then others...
Currently trading at 89.76....already a 50 pip drop since close. Hope it goes more. I would love to catch the long move as low a possible.
  • #14,731
  • Jan 31, 2010 1:51pm Jan 31, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting Honored
Currently trading at 89.76....already a 50 pip drop since close. Hope it goes more. I would love to catch the long move as low a possible.
where are you aiming @ getting in long guys???
  • #14,732
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:06pm Jan 31, 2010 2:06pm
Honored.......how do you know the current price of USD/JPY??I mean arent the markets still closed??Thanks!!
  • #14,733
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:31pm Jan 31, 2010 2:31pm
oanda is open. for AU & Asian pairs
  • #14,734
  • Jan 31, 2010 2:35pm Jan 31, 2010 2:35pm
now it's all open...
  • #14,735
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:19pm Jan 31, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting goldcrash
Honored.......how do you know the current price of USD/JPY??I mean arent the markets still closed??Thanks!!
You can check out all the pairs here before your broker opens.

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/cu...spx?id=USD/JPY
  • #14,736
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:21pm Jan 31, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting skerdi-meta
where are you aiming @ getting in long guys???
No idea yet, we will find out this week how far down it wants to drop. 88.32 is a strong support.
  • #14,737
  • Jan 31, 2010 3:33pm Jan 31, 2010 3:33pm
I'm still waiting for the shootout between the BOJ and the Bears!
  • #14,738
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:39pm Jan 31, 2010 4:39pm
I am biased long on this pair. 92 and may be higher. Mainly I am betting on the fact that by end of the week, they will push it up higher from here based on positive job number expectations.
Its all in the mind.
  • #14,739
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:50pm Jan 31, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting 5abi
I am biased long on this pair. 92 and may be higher. Mainly I am betting on the fact that by end of the week, they will push it up higher from here based on positive job number expectations.
Good point. But between now and then, they'll try to push it down as low as they could to buy for cheap!
  • #14,740
  • Jan 31, 2010 4:53pm Jan 31, 2010 4:53pm
Agreed. And that may be the reason for low volume moves down. However, I already have 2 positions since last week and would add one or 2 more if it stays under 90.50. But 92 is likely by Friday.

Quoting pqt
Good point. But between now and then, they'll try to push it down as low as they could to buy for cheap!
Its all in the mind.
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