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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #195,441
  • Jan 23, 2010 3:40pm Jan 23, 2010 3:40pm
hi all

the down trend will resume uless 16190 is broken the first target will be 15970
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  • #195,442
  • Jan 23, 2010 5:15pm Jan 23, 2010 5:15pm
Hi People... As a newbie i would like to start posting charts and hope to get advice on things I am missing or doing wrong... I am seeing on the H4 chart the possibility of H&S forming.. I haven't taken into account any news as its all a bit crazy in the world right now... does my perception deliver any sanity?

In addition to the H&S... You will see on the 2nd chart the fibo retracement seems to fit the 61.8% which is 1.6240 before tumbling down - This is of course providing we break through the 1.62 and bounce off the 1.5890 level. Feel free to comment.. Any advice is much appreciated
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  • #195,443
  • Jan 23, 2010 6:09pm Jan 23, 2010 6:09pm
Quote
Hi People... As a newbie i would like to start posting charts and hope to get advice on things I am missing or doing wrong... I am seeing on the H4 chart the possibility of H&S forming.. I haven't taken into account any news as its all a bit crazy in the world right now... does my perception deliver any sanity?

In addition to the H&S... You will see on the 2nd chart the fibo retracement seems to fit the 61.8% which is 1.6240 before tumbling down - This is of course providing we break through the 1.62 and bounce off the 1.5890 level. Feel free...

very possible!
excellent
  • #195,444
  • Jan 23, 2010 7:40pm Jan 23, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting jaylovin
Hi People... As a newbie i would like to start posting charts and hope to get advice on things I am missing or doing wrong... I am seeing on the H4 chart the possibility of H&S forming.. I haven't taken into account any news as its all a bit crazy in the world right now... does my perception deliver any sanity?

In addition to the H&S... You will see on the 2nd chart the fibo retracement seems to fit the 61.8% which is 1.6240 before tumbling down - This is of course providing we break through the 1.62 and bounce off the 1.5890 level. Feel free...
Nice deduction. And I might add, you. Read the charts well for a newbie. Who did you learn from? I gave this same analysis a few threads back. Your 58xx target before the reversal is approximate. It will probably be stopped at the figure (5900).
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #195,445
  • Jan 23, 2010 8:19pm Jan 23, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting wormboy
We go long next week bro
Following these trendlines extending back to the HH on 8/04/09
and the LL on 10/13/09 the logical conclusion would be to see
the cable move back up to test the UTL in the days or weeks to
come. Up it could be.

I'm all for 'movement'... either way.

Dr. D.
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  • #195,446
  • Jan 23, 2010 8:21pm Jan 23, 2010 8:21pm
Will it move up? Or down before it moves up?

My compression charts only point out areas of pressure building that can surely provide the energy for massive moves relative to the TF in any direction on the chart. To achieve this, the EMA's have to remain together and not release prematurely or individually by misdirected moves that spread the MMA's rather than gather them. The days (or weeks) to come will tell. Watch for it.

Back on 7/18/08... 13 trading sessions prior to the large drop on 8/03/08 (producing 6,000+ pips movement - see previous post, #195440) 6 of the higher EMA's (excluding the 6, 18 and 38) were stacked within 38 pips and on the release date from compression on 8/03 they had converged further to within 25 pips. For a daily chart, that's a tight configuration; whereas, a 1m chart might find 7 or 8 of the higher EMA's coiled to within one pip. Energy equal in magnitude to the size of the TF.

Coincidentally, today we see a similar gathering forming with the same 6 EMA's compressed again to a 38 pip spread. Is that sufficient narrowing to cause a breakout, provided a trigger such as another bad data release or news reaction or does it need to close further like the past to 25 pips or narrower? From that date back in '08, the shock factor (housing market collapse and banking failures, etc) may have passed and the markets desensitized to a less reactive degree and we may never see another 6K breakout in a pair and just more whip saw movements.

All macroeconomics aside, the intrinsic nature of the markets and social mimicry in repeating behavior of traders / investors, has also its own built-in energy and reactions to produce similar natural movement in the charts (price action).

I would prefer to watch the lower TF's and see if they can lend energy (and direction) to higher TF movements to produce the maximum moves. Trading below 1.6200 will help the next highest TF, the 4h chart, move toward another compression after having moved ~700+ pips (12/07 - 12/30) following its CRS (Compression - Release - Separation). In this presentation, I measure pip movement from the point of greatest compression rather than the HH nearest that date.

Currently, the daily EMA's for the most part are drawing together as the PA remains below or within the cluster (1.6259 - 1.6233). Too much of a move upward will prevent further compression... too much movement below will cause the cluster to separate reducing the build up of energy.

Between now and that possible date the lowest TF's can go about these compression formations moving up and down in ranging conditions producing plenty of pipage.

Pick your TF and your pleasure or your poison through your charting.

Dr. D.
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  • #195,447
  • Jan 23, 2010 8:36pm Jan 23, 2010 8:36pm
fourx,

Thank you.

Donnie
  • #195,448
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:05pm Jan 23, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting jaylovin
Hi People... As a newbie i would like to start posting charts and hope to get advice on things I am missing or doing wrong... I am seeing on the H4 chart the possibility of H&S forming.. I haven't taken into account any news as its all a bit crazy in the world right now... does my perception deliver any sanity?

In addition to the H&S... You will see on the 2nd chart the fibo retracement seems to fit the 61.8% which is 1.6240 before tumbling down - This is of course providing we break through the 1.62 and bounce off the 1.5890 level. Feel free...

Immediate short term bullish divergence between price low and MACD on your chart.
  • #195,449
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:10pm Jan 23, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Following these trendlines extending back to the HH on 8/04/09
and the LL on 10/13/09 the logical conclusion would be to see
the cable move back up to test the UTL in the days or weeks to
come. Up it could be.

I'm all for 'movement'... either way.

Dr. D.

I've already set a PO (long) before the london close last friday:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4436


I did mention to Ctic earlier, I'm looking for a large bounce up. Chart below shows why.
Cable is still trending up - mid term, unless price close below ltl2.
Divergence, patterns & confluences - the whole nine yards.

That being said, I still am holding short position from higher up with stop placed @6150 & tp being set to 6040. If the ltl2 goes, my trades are not harmed since cable will likely drop very deep.

I'm all for "movement" too .. either way, just that I go for the large moves
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Thank You
  • #195,450
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:23pm Jan 23, 2010 10:23pm
Hi Guys,

Important NEWS from Wall Street Journal :

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...EFTTopWhatNews
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #195,451
  • Jan 23, 2010 10:55pm Jan 23, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting wormboy
I've already set a PO (long) before the london close last friday:
1. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4436


I did mention to Ctic earlier, I'm looking for a large bounce up. Chart below shows why.
Cable is still trending up - mid term, unless price close below ltl2.
Divergence, patterns & confluences - the whole nine yards.

That being said, I still am holding short position from higher up with stop placed @6150 & tp being set to 6040. If the ltl2 goes, my trades are not harmed since cable will likely drop...
Dr. D and WB,

I am in agreement that we should have a good explosion next week. I do think in addition that we should get the bounce up that wormboy is talking about. From my channels, We bounced off the bottom wall of the weekly chart a month ago and appear to be on the way up. The 4H is at the bottom channel wall and should bounce up. However from the fibonacci point of view, the week ended just above the 0 fib line from previous week, lows were not broken. We could see a drop down to the 1.5925 give or take before the bounce up, in which the target would be in the area of 1.6550 to 1.6700. WB and I were talking about this earlier but I was not by my trading computers thus didn't have charts and was going off memory of what they looked like.

Bottom line:

I am planning on taking long positions.
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  • #195,452
  • Jan 23, 2010 11:35pm Jan 23, 2010 11:35pm
Hi guys,

what will happen to USD if China appreciate Yuan by 5% ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNpOCUK8o.O4
Patience + Discipline =
  • #195,453
  • Jan 24, 2010 12:03am Jan 24, 2010 12:03am
Quoting Jemmy
Hi guys,

what will happen to USD if China appreciate Yuan by 5% ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNpOCUK8o.O4
Hi Jemmy

From my understanding I think the Chinese currency is pegged with the USD, Which I do believe If the Yuan increases by 5% so will the USD.
Someone correct me If I have this wrong.
  • #195,454
  • Jan 24, 2010 2:31am Jan 24, 2010 2:31am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Cable traded down to 1.6077 today just above 1.6045 weekly bullish gap and then pulled back up

Around 1.6100 a burgeoning TL from prior Double-Dip comes into play as well

This level also seems to complete 63.63% retracement of the 1.5896-1.6457 move...

I started building long position at around 1.6100


Have A Great Weekend Everyone!
HI GM
I am fan of your trading strategy, you are truly a master.
Do u ever trade UJ? I am thinking of getting quarterly call option on Uj strike price 95. Whats ur thoughts on Uj?

Thanks
  • #195,455
  • Jan 24, 2010 2:34am Jan 24, 2010 2:34am
There is no buy signal on my chart yet.
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  • #195,456
  • Edited 5:59am Jan 24, 2010 3:02am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting Tsar
Hi Guys,

Important NEWS from Wall Street Journal :

.....
hello!

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6456 last week but reversed below mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and falls sharply to as low as 1.6086. The development indicates that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already and whole decline from 1.6875 should be resuming. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.5829 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.5706 key cluster support. On the upside, though, above 1.6284 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and turn focus back 1.6456 resistance
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043.
Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503. However, note that break of 1.6456 resistance will in turn shift favor to the case that recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely developing into consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.
  • #195,457
  • Edited 3:33am Jan 24, 2010 3:17am | Edited 3:33am
I make it simple.. no divergence, no bla bla bla.. price now 6111 and GU will going down to 5920 nahh.. i'm kiddin..
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #195,458
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:20am Jan 24, 2010 3:20am
Hi Guys,

I also trade the 4hr chart. Have this trade still open in $5900 profit @152 pips.
I have a simple chart, and only trade on the direction on the arrows.
As there is no change of direction arrows the trade will continue short.

On the AUD/GBP chart, 1 short trade open 100 pip +

Simple charts are the best, try not to add too many indicators to you chart.

smokey22
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  • #195,459
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:26am Jan 24, 2010 3:26am
Quoting smokey22
Hi Guys,

I also trade the 4hr chart. Have this trade still open in $5900 profit @152 pips.
I have a simple chart, and only trade on the direction on the arrows.
As there is no change of direction arrows the trade will continue short.

On the AUD/GBP chart, 1 short trade open 100 pip +

Simple charts are the best, try not to add too many indicators to you chart.

smokey22

what indicator is arrows?
  • #195,460
  • Jan 24, 2010 3:31am Jan 24, 2010 3:31am
Quoting bonus76
what indicator is arrows?

Hi Indi


My arrow indicator is Stealth Early Bird v10
This indicator does not re paint and give a true direction of the trade
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