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THV system, final edition

  • #17,301
  • Edited 9:14pm Jan 21, 2010 7:41pm | Edited 9:14pm
Ms pips,

can there be an entry (10 pips scalp) with the break of the coral using M1 chart? Together with confirmation of close of 1st candle after break and M15 trend.
Time: During London and New York Session.

I had noticed that there is always a surge of breakout when crossing the coral successfully.

Thanks.
  • #17,302
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:32pm Jan 21, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Emp
Ms pips,

can there be an entry (10 pips scalp) with the break of the coral using M1 chart? Together with confirmation of close of 1st candle after break and M15 trend.
Time: During London and New York Session.

I had noticed that there is always a surge of breakout when crossing the coral successfully.

Thanks.
Hi Ms Pips

I had done a trade on demo account based on the above I had mentioned. This test trade was done during asian session.

Trade was done together with THV rules all met as well. Taking into consideration that M15 trend is down, therefore the decision is a short.
Noticed that price broke Coral earlier but retraces back but bounced lower. But if we had entered earlier during the earlier break, we are not stop out either.
My point is, if we had this kind of set up, can we consider that it is more or less a safe trade?

I will continue to monitor this kind of set up. I have only tested on EUR/USD pair and will continue testing further.

Hi Nobitacu

Does this met the entry rules of the Laguerre RSI?

Many thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #17,303
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:55pm Jan 21, 2010 10:55pm
Yes of course. I'm not saying to only trade the retest. You can trade the first break if other THV rules are met. I'm saying that the retest is also often a good trade - under certain conditions.

Quoting Emp
Ms pips,

can there be an entry (10 pips scalp) with the break of the coral using M1 chart? Together with confirmation of close of 1st candle after break and M15 trend.
Time: During London and New York Session.

I had noticed that there is always a surge of breakout when crossing the coral successfully.

Thanks.
  • #17,304
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:17am Jan 22, 2010 2:17am
Hi everyone

Another example of trading the breakout of the coral in line with M15 trend.

My broker response time seem to be slow, by the time I click buy, the price is off by 4 pips from what I see. My TP remain as 10 pips. However 1st wave, had missed my TP by 1 pip. (I would have reached my TP if my buy time is earlier - thanks to my broker). I held on anyway.

Price retraces back towards Coral and bounced off to another level and my TP of 10 pips reached. ( I could have aimed for higher, but I am contended for my gain at the moment, greed never ends well).

What I am saying is, successful breakout is my entry point, supported by THV rules, however, even as price retraces, it has not stop me out and started to bounced back to a higher level. That means with this kind of setup in place, it could be a lesser risk trade (not no risk), and that will means that you can place a bigger lot size to meet your daily target.

Will continue to test with this strategy. Seniors, please feel free to comment if this strategy is not workable, as you had seen the market more than me.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #17,305
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:28am Jan 22, 2010 2:28am
Quoting MissPips
I like to have 6 points, or even better 6 points from a divergence, but I'll take one that has the m1 fast and the M5 spread the right color. I use the same stops Here is a picture of what I mean about getting out (more or less, this one doesn't quite qualify for a good down trend because there aren't really 3 good lower lows (one is not a good fractal), and the time is not right but it illustrates what it looks like when I'd get out. I'd get out because it wasn't behaving like it should - that is bouncing off the coral and continuing the trend....
I've attached one possible trade from today so far.

However, it doesn't seem to fulfill your requirement of M5 spread increasing (for a long in this case), and strong bearish divergence is present on M15. Does the choppiness around the coral matter at all? Are the HH's correctly marked?

Cheers!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: THV220110misspips.png Size: 89 KB
  • #17,306
  • Edited 3:18am Jan 22, 2010 2:39am | Edited 3:18am
My first THV trade of the day was a short from 1.4147, out at +10.

Considerations:
- Micro-T/L broken on M1
- Bearish Divergence on M1, M15
- 23.6 Fib retrace on Daily had just been tested and rejected (1.4158)
- M1 Trix cross
- M5 Fast Trix red and pointing down
- Daily Downtrend

Reasons against:
- Entering a short just above yesterday's high - could become support and price could thus bounce
- M5 Trix had not crossed
- M15, H1, H4 in an uptrend
- Only 8 pips away from the coral and is a counter-trend trade

Critiques on the trade most welcome
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: THV220110a.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: THV220110b.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: THV220110c.png Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: THV220110d.png Size: 51 KB
  • #17,307
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:57am Jan 22, 2010 2:57am
Quoting Mindsphere
My first THV trade of the day was a short from 1.4147, out at +13.

Considerations:
- Micro-T/L broken on M1
- Bearish Divergence on M1, M15
- 23.6 Fib retrace on Daily had just been tested and rejected (1.4158)
- M1 Trix cross
- M5 Fast Trix red and pointing down
- Daily Downtrend

Reasons against:
- Entering a short just above yesterday's high - could become support and price could thus bounce
- M5 Trix had not crossed
- M15, H1, H4 in an uptrend
- Only 8 pips away from the coral and is a counter-trend trade

Critiques on the...

In my opinion it was a good trade, +13 it is pretty nice in countertrend on Eur; I saw it but I hesitated. This morning I've traded only long.
  • #17,308
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:01am Jan 22, 2010 3:01am
Quoting Sailorx
In my opinion it was a good trade, +13 it is pretty nice in countertrend on Eur; I saw it but I hesitated. This morning I've traded only long.
Thanks Sailorx. Market's looking a bit choppy at the moment, no? Lots of divergence present. Might wait for another counter-trend setup, or looking for a break of 1.4158 for longs, or the coral for shorts.
  • #17,309
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:01am Jan 22, 2010 3:01am
This is another example.

Price breakout Coral, M15 downtrend, all THV rules met...... trade entered.
However, price retraces before reaching my TP but retested and bounced off Coral to proceed with a lower low and ultimately reach my TP of 10 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-USD.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #17,310
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:08am Jan 22, 2010 3:08am
Quoting Mindsphere
Thanks Sailorx. Market's looking a bit choppy at the moment, no? Lots of divergence present. Might wait for another counter-trend setup, or looking for a break of 1.4158 for longs, or the coral for shorts.

Yeah, I am waiting for a break of the major trend lines on H1/M15 in order to enter in good set ups.
  • #17,311
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:11am Jan 22, 2010 3:11am
Hi Mindshere

you have shorted even though the price is above Coral?
But I do agree that there is a regular divergence.

How do you take profit?

Quoting Mindsphere
My first THV trade of the day was a short from 1.4147, out at +13.

Considerations:
- Micro-T/L broken on M1
- Bearish Divergence on M1, M15
- 23.6 Fib retrace on Daily had just been tested and rejected (1.4158)
- M1 Trix cross
- M5 Fast Trix red and pointing down
- Daily Downtrend

Reasons against:
- Entering a short just above yesterday's high - could become support and price could thus bounce
- M5 Trix had not crossed
- M15, H1, H4 in an uptrend
- Only 8 pips away from the coral and is a counter-trend trade

Critiques on the trade...
  • #17,312
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:16am Jan 22, 2010 3:16am
Well, I personally gave that one a miss for the following reasons:
1) I like to see the HHs or LLs after the rainbow colors are all visible
2) I like to see that the "trend" that it is reversing from was really a trend - not just an extra volatile dip down. In this case the dip down didn't meet my trend requirements.
3) There was divergence on the 5m tf and I don't like to trade against divergence .

If you add the SwissArmy histo with type 12 ofr the 5m though, you will see that the spread between the f and s trix on the 5m tf was in favor of the trade (it updates better than the MTF indie that shows the actual trix) and I think that's why that trade would have worked (barely) anyway if you took it right when the spread on the 5m went green.

But I like to be more conservative - I like everything lined up. There are always more trades if we missed on that turned out to be good.

Quoting Mindsphere
I've attached one possible trade from today so far.

However, it doesn't seem to fulfill your requirement of M5 spread increasing (for a long in this case), and strong bearish divergence is present on M15. Does the choppiness around the coral matter at all? Are the HH's correctly marked?

Cheers!
  • #17,313
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:16am Jan 22, 2010 3:16am
Quoting Emp
Hi Mindshere

you have shorted even though the price is above Coral?
But I do agree that there is a regular divergence.

How do you take profit?
Hi Emp.

1st, sorry I made a mistake, I read off my TP number as opposed to my actual closing price, I made +10 on that trade. I closed it when price stalled at the M1 T/L. I was not expecting much more than 10 pips as it was a counter-trend trade.

I don't think it was a great trade because it was counter-trend and the price was so close to the coral. Others caution that if you're going to take a counter-trend you should wait until price is something like 25-30+ pips away from the coral.
  • #17,314
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:28am Jan 22, 2010 3:28am
In my opinion a good trade too. That is another of my 'trade templates' - when you have divergence on both a higher tf and the 1m together. It makes it a higher probability trade.

Also, the main trend has been a downtrend, but now we have short covering to book profits for the weekend, and also because of Obama's statements, which is causing an uptrend counter to what has been the main trend for the last week. But I think traders are still a bit scared to go against the recent main trend so we are seeing a lot of choppiness and in choppy markets divergence trades are higher probability than in trending markets.

Quoting Mindsphere
My first THV trade of the day was a short from 1.4147, out at +10.

Considerations:
- Micro-T/L broken on M1
- Bearish Divergence on M1, M15
- 23.6 Fib retrace on Daily had just been tested and rejected (1.4158)
- M1 Trix cross
- M5 Fast Trix red and pointing down
- Daily Downtrend

Reasons against:
- Entering a short just above yesterday's high - could become support and price could thus bounce
- M5 Trix had not crossed
- M15, H1, H4 in an uptrend
- Only 8 pips away from the coral and is a counter-trend trade

Critiques on the...
  • #17,315
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:36am Jan 22, 2010 3:36am
Hi Emp,

Generally speaking trades close to the coral in line with the longer term trend are better than trades farther from the coral. If it were me, I'd replace the cloud with the spread on the 5m trix (type 12 on the SwissArmy Histo.) You might try just adding an additonal histo and comparing the trades suggested by that one and the one you are using.

The reason is that I think you will find that 90% of the time when price breaks the coral in the direction of the longer tf trend for this trade type, it also has already broken the cloud. So you can do without the cloud in this instance. In addition I think you will notice that if you take the ones where both the 15 m f trix and the 5m trix spread are in favor of the trade it will go against you less often.


Quoting Emp
Hi everyone

Another example of trading the breakout of the coral in line with M15 trend.

My broker response time seem to be slow, by the time I click buy, the price is off by 4 pips from what I see. My TP remain as 10 pips. However 1st wave, had missed my TP by 1 pip. (I would have reached my TP if my buy time is earlier - thanks to my broker). I held on anyway.

Price retraces back towards Coral and bounced off to another level and my TP of 10 pips reached. ( I could have aimed for higher, but I am contended for my gain at the moment, greed...
  • #17,316
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:51am Jan 22, 2010 3:51am
Thanks Ms Pips

Tried to use type 12, but seems that it show nothing on the Histo.
Thanks for your help.

Quoting MissPips
Hi Emp,

Generally speaking trades close to the coral in line with the longer term trend are better than trades farther from the coral. If it were me, I'd replace the cloud with the spread on the 5m trix (type 12 on the SwissArmy Histo.) You might try just adding an additonal histo and comparing the trades suggested by that one and the one you are using.

The reason is that I think you will find that 90% of the time when price breaks the coral in the direction of the longer tf trend for this trade type, it also has already broken the cloud. So...
  • #17,317
  • Jan 22, 2010 3:59am Jan 22, 2010 3:59am
Quoting MissPips
Well, I personally gave that one a miss for the following reasons:
1) I like to see the HHs or LLs after the rainbow colors are all visible
Thanks, good to know! Would you say that right now we've got the 3 HH's looking good then? (see attached pic)

Quoting MissPips
3) There was divergence on the 5m tf and I don't like to trade against divergence .
Really? I can't spot any on M5, am I somehow looking at it wrong? (attached)

Downloaded and installed the SwissArmyHisto, will wait patiently for that setup again
Attached Images
  • #17,318
  • Edited 4:43am Jan 22, 2010 4:07am | Edited 4:43am
Just took my 2nd THV trade for today.

Short from 1.41630 to 1.41535 - +9.5

Considerations:
- Short term bearish divergence on M1
- Bearish divergence on M15
- Had just poked through the 23.6 fib on the daily and looked to be stalling
- Was stalling at edge of T/L on M5, M15
- Touch of R2
- Had extremely tight stop (1.4170 + spread)
- 21 pips from coral
- Exited on next M1 T/L

Reasons against trade:
- No trix confirmation
- Risk of potential breakout

Thoughts?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: THV2201102a.png Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: THV2201102b.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: THV2201102c.png Size: 57 KB
  • #17,319
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:16am Jan 22, 2010 4:16am
Hi Mindsphere,

from your chart I can see that you shorted when the price is above the Coral? Isn't it against THV rules?

Quoting Mindsphere
Just took my 2nd THV trade for today.

Short from 1.41630 to 1.41535 - +9.5

Considerations:
- Short term bearish divergence on M1
- Bearish divergence on M15
- Had just poked through the 23.6 fib on the daily and looked to be stalling
- Was stalling at edge of T/L on M5, M15
- Had extremely tight stop (1.4170 + spread)
- 21 pips from coral
- Exited on next M1 T/L

Reasons against trade:
- No trix confirmation
- Risk of potential breakout

Thoughts?
  • #17,320
  • Jan 22, 2010 4:18am Jan 22, 2010 4:18am
Quoting Mindsphere
Just took my 2nd THV trade for today.

Short from 1.41630 to 1.41535 - +9.5

Considerations:
- Short term bearish divergence on M1
- Bearish divergence on M15
- Had just poked through the 23.6 fib on the daily and looked to be stalling
- Was stalling at edge of T/L on M5, M15
- Had extremely tight stop (1.4170 + spread)
- 21 pips from coral
- Exited on next M1 T/L

Reasons against trade:
- No trix confirmation
- Risk of potential breakout

Thoughts?


Just minutes befeore your trade, there was a long signal on EURUSD also with m5 trix confirmation, about during the break of the YH; did you get it? I believe that your short trade was more risky.
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