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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #195,141
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:43pm Jan 21, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting manize
Friday.

I bet :

1. Up 1st, spike at 1.6232/41 or stay at 1.6210 then down across the DP Today 1.6210 untill what level I don't know !

2. Or breaks 1.6232/41 then all the way go long untill what level I don't know !

I obeserve the habit movement on Friday is the option 1 ---> Always across the current DP !

The safe trade is just only in if has already moved beyond 1.6210 - 1.6241 (H4 close/open)
I have found the weekly open close price is something tht reacts with price quite often in the bigger swings back and forth , definitly an area I have used for tgts and support or resistience. Daily open and close often reacts with price also
  • #195,142
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:45pm Jan 21, 2010 11:45pm
I'm still looking for 1.6065 for a 300 pip profit. I'm confident that we'll see it by close tomorrow.
  • #195,143
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:48pm Jan 21, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting scottymoll
I'm still looking for 1.6065 for a 300 pip profit. I'm confident that we'll see it by close tomorrow.
definitly a possibility , 1.6047 was last weeks low
  • #195,144
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:48pm Jan 21, 2010 11:48pm
1.62 was a strong support level in 2nd & 3rd week of december. In meduim and long term I would rather wait till situation clear up little bit.
Considering its friday tomorrow and some news are coming out in the morning I think its best to stay out till monday.

Don't waist hard earned pips for uncertain trades

Good Night
  • #195,145
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:57pm Jan 21, 2010 11:57pm
I am thinking off the bat that we may see an initial spike up to 1.6240 and then continue this down pattern that we have seen since the pinbar candle. Target I am looking for is 1.6015. However if this breaks the top side I see three targets, 1.6300, 1.6379, 1.6422. I am leaning more towards the short side of things but as always I will wait for my confirmations before I enter.
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  • #195,146
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:07am Jan 22, 2010 12:07am
Quoting 4xCoach
Look forward to your insights...

My insight is this: "there was no sizzle cuz of the fizzle"
The EMA's on the 5m never came together in a coordinated fashion.

As I had said:

"If the PA lingers too long in a range above (or below) the pack, the MA's will begin to separate and the effect and energy will be lost. Like water on the fuse.... fizzle."

It's disheartening... to see a 5m pattern so close to full compression and not follow through. Now they are separating upward in a gentle slope and may move the price slowly in a direction to assist the 15m into compression. No worries. That could create the same desired explosive movement once formed on the higher TF.

If the bars (price) in that earlier pic would have dropped down through the area where the other EMA's were congregating then all would have reach a narrow point of convergence producing the maximum affect. Price would have accelerated (up or down)... I was choosing 'down'.
The key being acceleration. Not this puny delayed action. The convergence of EMA's during consolidations is a slow and tendious processes. Their release, however, is violent and unidirectional producing massive price movement relative to the TF. Now it must re-form or we move to another TF for the next opportunity for this phenomenon to occur.... compression - release - separation (CRS).

Looking at other TF's, the 1m is always nearest to compression by virtue of its timing and will go thru this process multiple times per day. Currently, the 15m and 30m need to move upward to draw the EMA's together for their formation to occur. The 1h is currently in a downward direction initiated off of a 1m CRS back on 1/19 ~10GMT. A 1h chart doesn't show a CRS as the EMA's have rolled over and currently are no where near forming into such a pattern. The 4h and the daily are both nicely developing their compression patterns but will require multiple candles (hrs and days respectively) in moving downward to continue their formation. Should they reach this full formation there will be massive pipage to follow. See the daily compression chart back in 8/08 that acheived this CRS and 6,000 pips movement thur 1/09. Most often any move by a higher TF is preceded by the formation of a lower more timely TF that lends or transfers its energy and subsequent movement (up or down).

Just my way of seeing things. I'm pleased to see others who also recognize and value these formations as trading signals and the power generated by their subsequent release, separation and sustained price movement.

Dr. D.
Attached Images
  • #195,147
  • Edited 12:26am Jan 22, 2010 12:12am | Edited 12:26am
no movement.....how this day will be....,




idr : masih posisi sell, tp besar kemungkinan jg malah akan naik..., (pemain besar sedang mencari posisi empuk buat ikutan)

res kuat di 6280 dan 6380 (yg terahir agak mustahil memang kl hari ini, tapi yah buat jaga2 aja kl tembus 6280)

semoga sukses buat kita semua...,
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #195,148
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:13am Jan 22, 2010 12:13am
Quoting Ctic
I am thinking off the bat that we may see an initial spike up to 1.6240 and then continue this down pattern that we have seen since the pinbar candle. Target I am looking for is 1.6015. However if this breaks the top side I see three targets, 1.6300, 1.6379, 1.6422. I am leaning more towards the short side of things but as always I will wait for my confirmations before I enter.
I'd like to see that now, after my 5m compression fizzled.
Next up, the 15m opportunity to form and that could
produce the energy for a large movement (either direction).
The 4h and daily would benefit from a downward move.

Waiting on the 15m to form should give me a few hours
to get some sleep.

Dr. D.
  • #195,149
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:18am Jan 22, 2010 12:18am
Quoting Ctic
I am thinking off the bat that we may see an initial spike up to 1.6240 and then continue this down pattern that we have seen since the pinbar candle. Target I am looking for is 1.6015. However if this breaks the top side I see three targets, 1.6300, 1.6379, 1.6422. I am leaning more towards the short side of things but as always I will wait for my confirmations before I enter.
i'm agree
  • #195,150
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:22am Jan 22, 2010 12:22am
Quoting fourxtrader
I'd like to see that now, after my 5m compression fizzled.
Next up, the 15m opportunity to form and that could
produce the energy for a large movement (either direction).
The 4h and daily would benefit from a downward move.

Waiting on the 15m to form should give me a few hours
to get some sleep.

Dr. D.
Yes that downward movement would be real nice for the compressions. I think we should start to see some movement at 2 am EST.
  • #195,151
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:24am Jan 22, 2010 12:24am
GU broke the downward RSI channel yesterday. Now it's struggling to break the downward 1H closed price downward trend line. If successful 1.6250 will be in the scene and next target will be back above 1.64XX
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Don't tell me how much you can earn. Tell me how much you may lose..
  • #195,152
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:36am Jan 22, 2010 12:36am
She's moving ! No entry untill London session open ( new H4), let us see how strong 1.6241 (break or not ) to retain the upward presure !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #195,153
  • Edited 1:28am Jan 22, 2010 12:39am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting javapips
no movement.....how this day will be....,

idr : masih posisi sell, tp besar kemungkinan jg malah akan naik..., (pemain besar sedang mencari posisi empuk buat ikutan)

res kuat di 6280 dan 6380 (yg terahir agak mustahil memang kl hari ini, tapi yah buat jaga2 aja kl tembus 6280)

semoga sukses buat kita semua...,
Bulls WIN...

idr: Ikut posisi sell, kena tutup SL Pas 6238.
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #195,154
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:40am Jan 22, 2010 12:40am
Quoting Ctic
Yes that downward movement would be real nice for the compressions. I think we should start to see some movement at 2 am EST.
Hey Ctic,

Seems your 1.382 was just hit on the 4HR. Nice expansion
It's Easy To Get In;.. It's Hard To Get Out
  • #195,155
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:42am Jan 22, 2010 12:42am
Quoting Ctic
I am thinking off the bat that we may see an initial spike up to 1.6240 and then continue this down pattern that we have seen since the pinbar candle. Target I am looking for is 1.6015. However if this breaks the top side I see three targets, 1.6300, 1.6379, 1.6422. I am leaning more towards the short side of things but as always I will wait for my confirmations before I enter.
so far good call
  • #195,156
  • Edited 2:00am Jan 22, 2010 12:42am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting Tsar
Bulls WIN...

idr: Ikut posisi sell, kena tutup SL Pas 6238.
Harusnya di atas sedikit 1.6241 ! Gpp msh ada kesempatan !

SL should have a few bit above 1.6241 ! Nope still have the chance !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #195,157
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:45am Jan 22, 2010 12:45am
Quoting John D
Hey Ctic,

Seems your 1.382 was just hit on the 4HR. Nice expansion
Lets see if it holds though.
  • #195,158
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:48am Jan 22, 2010 12:48am
Quoting manize
Harusnya di atas sedikit 1.6241 ! Gpp msh ada kesempatan !
Thx for your Advise

Seringkali bgt... Bro
Pasang SL bila Close Pas di Angka yg di-pilih. Lalu Traffic-nya Turun/Naik.
Bila Tanpa SL, kadang Bila kena Loss = Parah, Bila Ada Kejadian Extreme spt Kemarin Pagi Hr. Kenapa ya ??
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #195,159
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:52am Jan 22, 2010 12:52am
2 charts

 

  1. GBPUSD 4 HOUR
  2. EURUSD 4 HOUR

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #195,160
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:56am Jan 22, 2010 12:56am
Quoting Tsar
Thx for your Advise

Seringkali bgt... Bro
Pasang SL bila Close Pas di Angka yg di-pilih. Lalu Traffic-nya Turun/Naik.
Bila Tanpa SL, kadang Bila kena Loss = Parah, Bila Ada Kejadian Extreme spt Kemarin Pagi Hr. Kenapa ya ??
SL mutlak perlu, kadang- kadang memang harus loss, yang penting dijaga kalah menang rationya !
I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
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