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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #701
  • Edited 2:04pm Jan 19, 2010 1:50pm | Edited 2:04pm
But then agian. Who am I to suggest your Risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looks ST Bullish to me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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NOTE*
The Potential Extension of the Channel takes us to the End of the Month. Jan 27th or so
  • #702
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:54pm Jan 19, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting jcalow
Don't worry about it. I went short on USDCHF, but had mis-drawn my TL and have been stopped out by 3 pips, pair now look like it could be turning short.
I just don't understand why I took such a poor trade
  • #703
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:48pm Jan 19, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Xj8, I am looking at weekly cause, I did missed the daily trades. Just walked onto this thread following some conversations from jacko's thread.


Plus, there is one more impending issue of my day job which doesnt allow me to trade 4hr charts cause I am away for 10-12 hrs which means i miss three out of six 4hr bars.

I have taken this trade on demo and want to see if I can scale in to make a bigger kill (wishful thinking) . So, a bigger SL.

@Dan, whats your thought on this trade?
Hi Vicky,

I think the 93.00 area was a good place to look for a sell entry so I agree with your direction/trade bias.

I don't really look to the weekly chart for trades so I am not qualified to suggest too much but I don't see why you couldn't trade this method on the weekly - it will just be a lot slower (not a bad thing) and you will need a bigger stop size.

I also am not a position scaler - I'm sure it can be done with some effect but for me it's too complicated! I like to keep things simple!

Have you tried trading the daily timeframe?

Regards,

Dan
  • #704
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:51pm Jan 19, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting Brixton
USD-CHF testing 1.0300 area.
Hi Brixton,

I like 1.0350 on USD/CHF which price has just rejected forming two H4 pin bars... I'm thinking time for a short, although !!DISCLAIMER!! that's not trade advice!!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #705
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:56pm Jan 19, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting jcalow
Anyone considering a short on USDCAD? Seems to be beginning to show resistance @ TL.
It needs to hold below 1.3000 - if it does then we could be going down.

Regards,

Dan
  • #706
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:58pm Jan 19, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting Bemac
But then agian. Who am I to suggest your Risk.
Attachment

Looks ST Bullish to me...
Attachment
NOTE*
The Potential Extension of the Channel takes us to the End of the Month. Jan 27th or so
Hi Bemac,

What kind of channel is that you are using?

Regards,

Dan
  • #707
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:00pm Jan 19, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting alter
I just don't understand why I took such a poor trade
Is it worth considering an A-H position to recover your losses? I don't know your actual trade details so I don't actually know if it is worth it or not. If not, file it under "sometimes s**t happens"!

Regards,

Dan
  • #708
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:03pm Jan 19, 2010 3:03pm
Hello Dan and experienced members of this thread,
I know Jacko doesn't mention the 61.8 Fib in his method. I also know that some other sages consider the 50 Fib and the 61.8 Fib to be significant. Has anyone any comments on the statistical significance of the 61.8 Fib please? It's very tempting when it occurs in confluence with the other parameters of this method. E.g. today, on GU,the 61.8 lined up with a long-term resistance line (Jul 08 thru Nov 09) and a round number (1.6450).
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #709
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:13pm Jan 19, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Kanderpro
Hello Dan and experienced members of this thread,
I know Jacko doesn't mention the 61.8 Fib in his method. I also know that some other sages consider the 50 Fib and the 61.8 Fib to be significant. Has anyone any comments on the statistical significance of the 61.8 Fib please? It's very tempting when it occurs in confluence with the other parameters of this method. E.g. today, the 61.8 lined up with a long-term resistance line (Jul 08 thru Nov 09) and a round number (1.6450).
Kan
Hi Kan,

In my opinion the most important thing (other than the trend direction) is horizontal support and resistance. I tend to look for key levels of s/r that fall close to the 50% fib level or trendline and trade from them. If the 61.8 level lined up with the s/r level then I would still consider it but I like to keep things simple so I only have the 50% on my chart.

Regards,

Dan
  • #710
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:40pm Jan 19, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Kan,

In my opinion the most important thing (other than the trend direction) is horizontal support and resistance. I tend to look for key levels of s/r that fall close to the 50% fib level or trendline and trade from them. If the 61.8 level lined up with the s/r level then I would still consider it but I like to keep things simple so I only have the 50% on my chart.

Regards,

Dan
Hello Dan,
Thanks for your reply to my 61.8 Fib question.
The development of this method is very interesting.
Given that all key levels of s/r are not at round numbers, do you enter after price:
1 - goes 50 pips in your direction?
2 - goes through a round number?
3 - goes through another key level of s/r?
Regards,
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #711
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:59pm Jan 19, 2010 3:59pm
Im watching NZD-JPY. .6700 level seems to be key. Has previously acted as S/L area, close to the rising trend line and also on the 38 fib.
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  • #712
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:02pm Jan 19, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting DanUK
Is it worth considering an A-H position to recover your losses? I don't know your actual trade details so I don't actually know if it is worth it or not. If not, file it under "sometimes s**t happens"!

Regards,

Dan

I have AH order in place at 1.4860. GBP is very strong last couple of days
  • #713
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:02pm Jan 19, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Kanderpro
Hello Dan,
Thanks for your reply to my 61.8 Fib question.
The development of this method is very interesting.
Given that all key levels of s/r are not at round numbers, do you enter after price:
1 - goes 50 pips in your direction?
2 - goes through a round number?
3 - goes through another key level of s/r?
Regards,
Kan
Hi Kan,

Actually I find that most of the "key" levels can be rounded up or down to a XX00 or XX50 level. I am only looking for the "key" levels here - not every s/r level shown.

I would normally use the 50 pip bounce for entry or if a price pattern (such as a shooting star, hammer or engulfing pattern) develops I will use the break of it (in the trend direction) to trigger a trade.

Regards,

Dan
  • #714
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:33pm Jan 19, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Brixton,

I like 1.0350 on USD/CHF which price has just rejected forming two H4 pin bars... I'm thinking time for a short, although !!DISCLAIMER!! that's not trade advice!!!

Regards,

Dan
Just thought i'd put this up here. I reckon USDCHF to be quite well past my bearish TL, so waiting to see what happens when it gets back to there.
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  • #715
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:12pm Jan 19, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Bemac,

What kind of channel is that you are using?

Regards,

Dan
Mine.
It's called ICCE.
Intake
Compression
Combustion
Exhaust.

Developed for MT4 with explanation Here...
Current analysis Posted Here....

hth
BMc
  • #716
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:30pm Jan 19, 2010 5:30pm
Quoting jcalow
Just thought I'd put this up here. I reckon USDCHF to be quite well past my bearish TL, so waiting to see what happens when it gets back to there.
Hi jcalow just a different viewpoint horizontal lines from daily if it keeps rejecting 10350 I'm in short at 10300.
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  • #717
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:44pm Jan 19, 2010 9:44pm
I think EU now is in downtrend bias.. the down move is very strong and if 1.4200 hold then i'm waiting for retracement around 1.4000-1.4050 area for going short
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  • #718
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:40am Jan 20, 2010 6:40am
Quite a bit of movement today, many of the pairs I watch have broken their TLs. Closed my previous order on this pair last night in the region of 149.00. Turned out to be a good plan. Waiting to see if this TL holds/what price action does for another buy.
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  • #719
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:44am Jan 20, 2010 6:44am
Quoting carrot_yuli
I think EU now is in downtrend bias.. the down move is very strong and if 1.4200 hold then i'm waiting for retracement around 1.4000-1.4050 area for going short
I agree, looks like this pair is beginning a downward trend again, I'm watching for a retracement.
  • #720
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:54am Jan 20, 2010 7:54am
got an ah now on this, lets see where it goes. my first loss this year on this system.
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