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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #194,321
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:39am Jan 19, 2010 11:39am
Hello to all!
Please, I don't know - will be flat GBP/USD? Is it real?
  • #194,322
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:58am Jan 19, 2010 11:58am
All that matters is knowing and trading within your frame of reference.

Dr. D.
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  • #194,323
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:15pm Jan 19, 2010 12:15pm
Let's play a little game I would like to call Reasonable Assumption....And maybe understand a little of price movement on the last trading days.

Friday had a playable area that was not covered by the Americans last week, so price shot up from about the bottom of the green line, 1.6190 area that traced back to 1.6210ish...

So, this week, began on the same long trend as support was still in play, made a little bit of a lull through the American session, (no volume) and reached for new highs. Sweet!

So, what happened next?

The fall....and why?

Check the area we fell back to, again, in the green box area on hourly chart. K, so, now that London and Asian sessions have had a chance to play near the new top of the chart, price was brought back down into range so that the Americans could play....

Here is where reasonable assumption comes in.

The Americans haven't had a chance to see the top of the ball yet, and even though we are a pin on the daily, reasonable assumption is that the Americans will get a chance to see this area before we move up or down. Direction from here will be crucial.

Reasonable assumption...We are long, why would we all of a sudden go short? The areas up to this point have been traded by all sessions, long and short. The books are balanced, the area has been covered, it could be time to find a new higher area to play.

Elliot waves, make sense as does Murray math play on retrace, under the same assumptions...all areas get covered 2 x before the play ranges move on...

Reasonable Assumption?

Guess, based on this simple logic, shorts from anyplace other then the top of the chart right now stand a pretty good chance at loss...unless played as scalps or on the fast levels, as we stand a pretty good chance at retracing the top.

Play as you would, just my 2 cents.

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #194,324
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:24pm Jan 19, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting Magix

The Americans haven't had a chance to see the top of the ball yet, and even though we are a pin on the daily, reasonable assumption is that the Americans will get a chance to see this area before we move up or down. Direction from here will be crucial.
Hey Magix, I like what you're saying. Let me paraphrase to see if I've got it??

Fri and Today has participants in Asia and Europe and the price action has tested the top and bottom range you mentioned. The Americans coming from holiday, will trade in anger and given the higher highs.... will probably push for another higher high.

Is that right?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #194,325
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:28pm Jan 19, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting vlady1974
Hey Magix, I like what you're saying. Let me paraphrase to see if I've got it??

Fri and Today has participants in Asia and Europe and the price action has tested the top and bottom range you mentioned. The Americans coming from holiday, will trade in anger and given the higher highs.... will probably push for another higher high.

Is that right?
I would say if not a higher high, at least into the same area...but they typically play tops and bottoms within spread ranges, 5-10 pips...

But yeah...

We are still supported by the h4 chart and longside still in play, why should we assume shorts now, when all it could be is giving the Americans to play the same bottom to top range?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #194,326
  • Jan 19, 2010 12:49pm Jan 19, 2010 12:49pm
hi

10 min BOE Gov King Speaks
  • #194,327
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:16pm Jan 19, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Magix
The fall....and why?

.

The Americans haven't had a chance to see the top of the ball yet, and even though we are a pin on the daily, reasonable assumption is that the Americans will get a chance to see this area before we move up or down. Direction from here will be crucial.
In my Walmart, most of em haven't seen the top of their shoes for years

That aside, my speculative longs on euro and cable are showing signs of life sometimes but there is danger all around so my conk is glued to the screen at all times..

I dont have a long term bias at all - it's as clear as an epileptic in a bubble bath right now with about as far to go...
  • #194,328
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:19pm Jan 19, 2010 1:19pm
The heck with talk about 1.6800's or 1.5800's.

Anyone catch either or both of these compression / release patterns?

The 1m formed and moved up into the 90's (for ~20+ pips) and that
drew the 5m EMA's together and it shot down into the 50's (for ~30 pips).

Expect vigorous pip movement off of these tight compression patterns.

Dr. D.
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  • #194,329
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:23pm Jan 19, 2010 1:23pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting deboooo2005
hi

10 min BOE Gov King Speaks
So did King talk the GBP down now?
Whatever made it I was lucky taking a lil short from 1.6380 with tight SL.
Saved at BE already now.. Just see if I let it run or cash in some save pips.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #194,330
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:23pm Jan 19, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting deboooo2005
hi

10 min BOE Gov King Speaks
some time i wonder and ask my self....

"what will i do when i know my money in the market will drop???"

try to calm the market.

yeah...at list not so quickly like rocket from moon...

and the result....,


(if Gov success this week..., may be he can save his money at list for a half year. [and not get fired...] .....)
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #194,331
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:24pm Jan 19, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting fourxtrader
The heck with talk about 1.6800's or 1.5800's.

Anyone catch either or both of these compression / release patterns?

The 1m formed and moved up into the 90's (for ~20+ pips) and that
drew the 5m EMA's together and it shot down into the 50's (for ~30 pips).

Dr. D.
Dr.D did u catch any of them i did 71 - 58 not bad

979072010.01.19 19:17sell0.10gbpusd1.63710.00001.63532010.01.19 21:021.6360-3.000.000.0011.00
  • #194,332
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:25pm Jan 19, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting allserene
In my Walmart, most of em haven't seen the top of their shoes for years

That aside, my speculative longs on euro and cable are showing signs of life sometimes but there is danger all around so my conk is glued to the screen at all times..

I dont have a long term bias at all - it's as clear as an epileptic in a bubble bath right now with about as far to go...
As mentioned this morning...OSMA on the h4, top right screen was showing signs of weakness, so, I am not terribly surprised by a bit of a pull back.

We have managed to hold the 24SMA on the H4 for support through every fall, area in green circle, but who knows how much weakness will be seen?

A failure of the H4 24SMA means the next line of support will be the 200EMA on the daily, which is an area we played 8 straight days of before Christmas.

I am not one much to catch falling knives, or chainsaws as it were, but prefer to have an idea of what could happen as it does happen.

These are my longer term supports and resistance, but I still take plays off of the 1m and 15m.

Time will be the teller, but with my New Years Stategy, I am looking for supported plays only, the counters even in profit, were not as grand in money making or fun as the trend plays.

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #194,333
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:34pm Jan 19, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting javapips
some time i wonder and ask my self....

"what will i do when i know my money in the market will drop???"

try to calm the market.

yeah...at list not so quickly like rocket from moon...

and the result....,


(if Gov success this week..., may be he can save his money at list for a half year. [and not get fired...] .....)


i hope he dos not fart while he speeks other wise we will be i deep shitt
  • #194,334
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:44pm Jan 19, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting kill56
i hope he dos not fart while he speeks other wise we will be i deep shitt
sure dud....it just another joke...,i do it better then the other...
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #194,335
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:48pm Jan 19, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting Magix

Time will be the teller, but with my New Years Stategy, I am looking for supported plays only, the counters even in profit, were not as grand in money making or fun as the trend plays.

Yes its too hairy without a nice long trend - in 2007 i was so used to just buying the dips and making hay, but now I have to work for my pips.

Not going BIG until I see a trend moving like a super tanker with the Somali pirates chasing it
  • #194,336
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:56pm Jan 19, 2010 1:56pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting allserene
...
Not going BIG until I see a trend moving like a super tanker with the Somali pirates chasing it
Good tactics.. No need to watch the charts all the time then... as TV-news will tell us about the pirate-attacks to that super tanker
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #194,337
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:56pm Jan 19, 2010 1:56pm
  •  refugee
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Be patient, cautious, & skeptical. | 50 Posts
Quoting GlobalMacro
Thanks....but you should really be doing your own analysis as well...
It's very dangerous to just follow anything without having your own opinion
Trade Well!

I totally agree with that, but seriously it just seems that you are always on fire with the long term strategy. Although I do like to look at everything that's out there to look at (FF calender is merely a cheat sheet to me). I do usually take your long term positions into consideration on which way to go and look for a good entry in the shorter tf's.
But in all honesty I would have no problem with going against you as I have before and made some quick money.... although I'm sure you got yours in the end as well.
  • #194,338
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:16pm Jan 19, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting allserene
Yes its too hairy without a nice long trend - in 2007 i was so used to just buying the dips and making hay, but now I have to work for my pips.

Not going BIG until I see a trend moving like a super tanker with the Somali pirates chasing it


Here's a Look at The U.S. Navy's New Pirate Catchers!

http://f568.mail.yahoo.com/ya/downlo...Inbox&inline=1

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WOW! A couple of these should be able to clean up the pirates off the coasts of Africa.....





This is the U.S.S. Independence (LCS-2)




It is a Triple Hulled, Weapon-Laden Monster.

Here it is under construction....

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There have been rumors about the U.S. Navy's speedy new triple hulled ships, but now they're for real.

The U.S.S Independence was built by General Dynamics. It's called a "littoral combat ship" (LCS), and the tri-maran can move its weapons around faster than any other ship in the Navy. (Ironic that with all that high tech built in, the ship reminds us of the Merrimac ironclad from Civil War days.)



Littoral means close to shore, and that's where these very ships will operate. They're tailor-made for launching helicopters and armored vehicles, sweeping mines and firing all manner of torpedoes, missiles and machine guns.




These ships are also relatively inexpensive. This one's a bargain at $208 million, and the Navy plans to build 55 of them.





This tri-maran is the first of a new fire breathing breed, ready to scoot out of dry dock at a rumored 60 knots.. It's like a speedy and heavily armed aircraft carrier for helicopters.

Pirates Beware!!!
  • #194,339
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:24pm Jan 19, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting allserene
Yes its too hairy without a nice long trend - in 2007 i was so used to just buying the dips and making hay, but now I have to work for my pips.

Not going BIG until I see a trend moving like a super tanker with the Somali pirates chasing it
We might not be that far away....

Currently we sit @ just above the 1440EMA on the hourly...this happens to work out to be the 24SMA on the weekly, our support. The weekly MACD if we close red on the week head into the depths, which could mean we will be looking for a new basement, area I have support line drawn to, on the weekly chart.

Critical mass.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #194,340
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:38pm Jan 19, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Magix
We might not be that far away....

Currently we sit @ just above the 1440EMA on the hourly...this happens to work out to be the 24SMA on the weekly, our support. The weekly MACD if we close red on the week head into the depths, which could mean we will be looking for a new basement, area I have support line drawn to, on the weekly chart.

Critical mass.
Amen
I think in next 10 days
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