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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #981
  • Jan 10, 2010 11:38pm Jan 10, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting DanUK
These ranges are tradable but the best advice when price is range-bound is to switch to a currency with more direction!

Dan
great advice! I have been doing much better due to just leaving paris that are ranging alone.... there are enough pairs with good volume that are trending at any point in time
  • #982
  • Jan 12, 2010 2:46pm Jan 12, 2010 2:46pm
At what point do we consider the longer term trend to be bearish? As I believe the weekly trendline of the last 11 months to be broken.

Thanks,


Josh
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  • #983
  • Jan 12, 2010 5:00pm Jan 12, 2010 5:00pm
Dan, you said in earlier post that your method has slightly change, can i know what is the changes? I'm looking forward for your next journal and really appreciate of your intention to post more often..
  • #984
  • Jan 13, 2010 5:39am Jan 13, 2010 5:39am
Quoting jcalow
At what point do we consider the longer term trend to be bearish? As I believe the weekly trendline of the last 11 months to be broken.

Thanks,


Josh
Hi Josh,

If that break had taken place at any other time I would agree that it was certainly a bearish signal however it happened over the Christmas period - low volume; big boys not trading therefore a significant change of trend would need confirmation.

My personal feeling is that the E/U uptrend is still active however if price retraces to say the 1.4700/1.4800 area and then falls to make new lows I will consider a change of trend has taken place.

Regards,

Dan
  • #985
  • Jan 13, 2010 5:41am Jan 13, 2010 5:41am
Quoting carrot_yuli
Dan, you said in earlier post that your method has slightly change, can i know what is the changes? I'm looking forward for your next journal and really appreciate of your intention to post more often..
Hi Carrot,

It's not so much changed as had a slight improvement made upon it! I will reveal all when I start my new journal (probably this weekend, if I have enough time) but it's nothing magical - just incorporating "key" levels of support and resistance to trade from and better chart reading with the incorporation of candlestick patterns. But don't worry the core system remains unchanged!

Regards,

Dan
  • #986
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:46am Jan 13, 2010 8:46am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Josh,

If that break had taken place at any other time I would agree that it was certainly a bearish signal however it happened over the Christmas period - low volume; big boys not trading therefore a significant change of trend would need confirmation.

My personal feeling is that the E/U uptrend is still active however if price retraces to say the 1.4700/1.4800 area and then falls to make new lows I will consider a change of trend has taken place.

Regards,

Dan
Agreed on this one with you here dan i'm looking at the 1.4700 also to see what reaction we have i'm still in this one long at 14350 with +100 locked in and should it reach 14700 will stay in won't be fussed by then what it dose LOL.
  • #987
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:58am Jan 13, 2010 8:58am
That should does not dose
  • #988
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:27am Jan 15, 2010 2:27am
Do u have any blog or anyway to follow you live bro?? Do u post ur orders before execution or after it??
  • #989
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:32am Jan 15, 2010 3:32am
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
Do u have any blog or anyway to follow you live bro?? Do u post ur orders before execution or after it??
No I'm afraid not. This is just a trading journal not a signal service. However, those of us that follow this method do discuss potential trades and often post setups as they occur at this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=187619

Cheers.
  • #990
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:00am Jan 15, 2010 5:00am
Quoting DanUK
...Yes you are right, I trade stock CFDs rather than the stock itself... It has been my experience that the charting platform provided by most brokers are not very good so I tend to use ProRealTime for my analysis and then execute my trade using the brokers chart (just to ensure they are in agreement). Most of my stock trades are based on daily charts.
Dan
Hi Dan,
Thx for your comment. Could you recommend some decent CFD broker you already tested? Been looking up SaxoBank, IG Markets and some others but cannot make up my mind... Thanx again

Cheers
  • #991
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:47pm Jan 17, 2010 5:47pm
Stopped out +100 pips EU page 38 post#560 on trend trading thread it was a bit risky as i was going long only about 60/40 in my favor but if it was going to resume the daily bullish trend then it was still a good spot to enter GU looking good at the moment got in a bit sharp at 1.6318 at break even confident for those who got in at 1
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.6300 here's hoping.
  • #992
  • Jan 18, 2010 12:15am Jan 18, 2010 12:15am
confused. you are long or short on gu?

Quoting castlerock
Stopped out +100 pips EU page 38 post#560 on trend trading thread it was a bit risky as i was going long only about 60/40 in my favor but if it was going to resume the daily bullish trend then it was still a good spot to enter GU looking good at the moment got in a bit sharp at 1.6318 at break even confident for those who got in at 1Attachment .6300 here's hoping.
  • #993
  • Jan 18, 2010 1:57am Jan 18, 2010 1:57am
Quoting coolshades
confused. you are long or short on gu?
short gu sell order is on the chart.
  • #994
  • Jan 24, 2010 9:17pm Jan 24, 2010 9:17pm
Hi Dan,

I have a couple of questions about your trading in general if you would be so kind as to clarify a few things.

I have read the thread from the start to finish and with your resent posts of 2009 results I have plotted each trade on the chart to sort of try and get an idea of what you saw at the time.

One thing I noticed is that you traded very aggressively in the beginning of the year and the last 6 months or so you took a step back and really reduced the amount of trades you took. Was there any particular reason for this sudden change in mentality?

You mention several times you also trade stocks… what I am interested to know is how you pick a stock with thousands to choose from where do you start?

I have only ever traded fx but the stock world does interest me. Would you say stocks are any easier/harder to trade than fx?

The reason I am so interested in your thread is because this is the way I have traded for a long time now… But even though I am profitable I don’t get close to your hit rate. I mean, I don’t think you had one loss in the last 4 months. I know you have explained in detail your method and I am very familiar with it but is there any one thing in particular that helps you keep such a great win %?

I am really looking forward to reading your trading summery if you are still planning on posting it in your new 2010 journal.

Thanks
  • #995
  • Jan 26, 2010 12:13pm Jan 26, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting Someone
Hi Dan,

I have a couple of questions about your trading in general if you would be so kind as to clarify a few things.

I have read the thread from the start to finish and with your resent posts of 2009 results I have plotted each trade on the chart to sort of try and get an idea of what you saw at the time.

[font=Arial]One thing I noticed is that you traded very aggressively in the beginning of the year and the last 6 months or so you took a step back and really reduced the amount of trades...
Hi Someone (interesting name!),

When I started my 2009 journal I wasn't totally confident in the trendline/50% fib level method that I currently use so I was also using Johnedoe's 77 cross system which was essentially two moving averages on a daily chart to give a trading bias and then placing a trade almost everyday in the direction of the MAs.

As I became more confident in using trendlines, support/resistance, 50% retracement levels etc I stopped using the 77 cross method and my trading slowed quite a lot. Not that I had anything to complain about, the 77 cross was working fine, but I was trying to focus more on placing the right trade and reducing my losses as much as possible.

I tend to choose stocks that are in the UK Top 100 - because I am UK based I have always been interested in UK stocks and in the past have invested (not traded) in stocks using fundamental analysis. These days I tend to use the fundamentals for trend bias and technical analysis for better entries.

I would say that my increased win rate has been a result of both being more confident with my trading but also reducing the amount of trades I take - really focusing on the best possible setups and staying away when prices are ranging rather than trending. I dare say a little luck has helped too... and I'm sure there will be a time when I hit a string of losers in order to help balance things out! LOL!

One thing I would add is that if you are profitable then don't change too much! Just keep doing what you are doing and I think that the confidence and experience you will gain from trading well will increase your profitability over time.

Regards,

Dan
  • #996
  • Jan 26, 2010 7:07pm Jan 26, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Someone (interesting name!),

When I started my 2009 journal I wasn't totally confident in the trendline/50% fib level method that I currently use so I was also using Johnedoe's 77 cross system which was essentially two moving averages on a daily chart to give a trading bias and then placing a trade almost everyday in the direction of the MAs.

As I became more confident in using trendlines, support/resistance, 50% retracement levels etc I stopped using the 77 cross method and my trading slowed quite a lot. Not that I had anything to complain...
Hi dan
I just want to ask you whether you still use the MA cross.. but you answer it before i have the chance to ask . And I learned your trade from January and very confused with your reasoning to enter (now i know that before you trade very aggressive because you use 77 cross). So since when do you start to change your method to use only fibo, TL, support resistant or PA? I ask because I still in the learning path to learn more about the profitable trade that you took based only on fibo and TL and i don't want to confuse my mind with the trade that you take based on 77 cross.
cheers,
Yuli
  • #997
  • Feb 11, 2010 9:44pm Feb 11, 2010 9:44pm
Interesting. i wonder how much of this is a function of ADR. That is, use the ADR has the SL/Trailing SL for the trade. As such, one can apply this method to any currency or pair, the only difference is the SL dictated by the ADR.

Just a theory.

Quoting DanUK
Hi GJP,

The 100 pip stop loss is derived from a number of things. When I first started to learn how to trade, Jacko was using a 50 pip stop on the Euro, however volatility has since increase so he upped the size of the stop loss to 100 pips.

[color=black][font=Verdana]The idea is that we are looking to trade longer term moves (sometimes holding a position for a few days) so a 100 pip stop loss normally gives the trade enough "room to breathe" so that we don't...
  • #998
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:45pm Feb 12, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting EntropyLad
Interesting. i wonder how much of this is a function of ADR. That is, use the ADR has the SL/Trailing SL for the trade. As such, one can apply this method to any currency or pair, the only difference is the SL dictated by the ADR.
Quoting EntropyLad

Just a theory.


Hi,

I tend to base my stop loss around a multiple of the ATR - as I use H4 charts to trade I tend to use 2 x ATR14. Why ATR14? I don't know - it just seems to give the right sort of reading for what I am doing! I don’t use the exact figure it gives me – normally a round number in the area (i.e. if ATR14 is 93 pips I will use a 100 pip stop loss).

Regards,

Dan

PS... I'm not sure how the calculation of ATR compares to that of ADR?
  • #999
  • Feb 13, 2010 2:38pm Feb 13, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I tend to base my stop loss around a multiple of the ATR - as I use H4 charts to trade I tend to use 2 x ATR14. Why ATR14? I don't know - it just seems to give the right sort of reading for what I am doing! I don’t use the exact figure it gives me – normally a round number in the area (i.e. if ATR14 is 93 pips I will use a 100 pip stop loss).

Regards,

Dan

[color=black][font=Verdana]PS......

ATR and ADR are the same thing.
  • #1,000
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:23pm Mar 13, 2010 2:23pm
Hello,

Can someone please direct me to Johndoe's 77 cross methodology. I've searched the FF site and nothing seems to come up. Has this method been removed from the forums? If so would someone be so kind as to summarize it for me? Thank you,

T
T
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