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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #193,621
  • Edited 6:10am Jan 16, 2010 6:09am | Edited 6:10am
I've closed all but one of my shorts with healthy profits.

I'm keeping one short @ 1.6305 open (cos I'm curious), but I'll be watching the asian open for a suitable exit. If there are any gaps or major moves, I don't think it will happen til about 4-6am GMT.

Personally, I think it will gap to the upside and continue the daily trend up.
I haven't yet checked for any pending news or fundamentals though.

If the counter-trend continues down, I will see if it goes and rests around 1.6113 and go long again, otherwise I'm out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,622
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:18am Jan 16, 2010 6:18am
I like you chart and indicators?
who r u with for the platform and which indicators do u use?
  • #193,623
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:28am Jan 16, 2010 6:28am
Quoting MartinR
I hate this. Some here know I'm new and now, I'm completly confused.

The only thing that comes to mind is, if you are a scalper/daytrader then look for 1m and 5m and longer charts as longer your sl and tp.

Help here, my account might blow out by sunday.

The best you guys.

Martin, take it from someone who has blown 2 accounts twice.
the discipline you are looking for doesn't need to be some aloof concept:

Firstly,
a) Stick to one pair for now. GBP/USD seems like the start you need. Dont trade any others as you clearly haven't been able to master one - how could you successfully trade another

b) Start with higher time frames and form an opinion. Then stick to that opinion. ie. Long / Short / Sideways

c) Before you even start to place a trade: you should already know what personality you have that will sustain the type of trade you want. Eg. if you know you will suffer a heart attack leaving trades open overnight, then don't trade daily or 4H as you will sit there wanting to slash wrists. Equally, if you're not comfortable sitting in front of your terminal every 5 min... don't trade 5M/15M as you will go crazy. Find your comfort level on this first.

d) Do your Trade and MM Calc... lots of posts here for you to draw from

e) Don't overload your charts with indicators that give you conflicting signals. Hence step (a) start with the daily and work to your desired time frame.

f) Rinse / Repeat


The trade bit (step d) is going to be a personal journey for you. I think that longer term or higher timeframes are stronger than your smaller ones. If you're unsure of the 15M vs 5M, why don't you look at your 4H or 1H?? Your interpretation of what you see must come from your answer in Step C.

Just my opinion. Grain of Salt applicable.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,624
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:36am Jan 16, 2010 6:36am
Quoting bksujal
i would short after yesterday's bearish engulfing and my target would be 1.5914
i have same opinion.TP 1.61 and 1.59.
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  • #193,625
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:46am Jan 16, 2010 6:46am
Quoting bonus76
I like you chart and indicators?
who r u with for the platform and which indicators do u use?
Hey Bonus76.. is that for me?

I'm on MT4, taken from IBFX.
My setup is:

a) a workspace template for every pair.
b) AT PRESENT (likely to change) I have all timeframes: Weekly to 1M
c) Each timeframe has a different combination of indicators for various interpretations.

My favourite set of indicators that I use frequently are:

1. M-Math v3: Murrey Math Lines - there are plenty of threads in other bulletin boards to explain what this is. I've been using following this PRICE based methodology since 1996 and it works.... BUT it is NOT a trading system... hence I need other stuff to trigger trades. My approach though is to buy/sell when price hits: [0/8 or 1/8] [8/8 or 7/8]. Caution at [4/8] or [+/- 1/8]

2. FerruFx_Multi_info+_Light_Chart_v.1.1: (this shows the ranges, trend strength, ranges and pivots) which I apply on almost every chart
Mainly for information only, not trade triggers.

3a. 3 EMAs : 200, 55, 21 for Weekly to 4H timeframes
3b. 3 EMAs : 100, 22, 8 for 1H to 1M timeframes
These help me judge the strength of a move when price approaches or pierces the lines. Helps make a trade decision but not solely on it.

4. Better Volume 1.4 and TickSeparate Volume: These assist with Volume Spread Analysis, lots of resources on the web for this. This does help with a trade decision.

I have other indicators... but some may say whoah! too much.... what I'm do though is do quick glances and if I get a stack of signals all validating the Daily direction, then I start calculating a trade.

Hope that explains things.
BTW... these indies are based on my trading style and may not suit others.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,626
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:00am Jan 16, 2010 7:00am
Quoting vlady1974
Hey Bonus76.. is that for me?

I'm on MT4, taken from IBFX.
My setup is:

a) a workspace template for every pair.
b) AT PRESENT (likely to change) I have all timeframes: Weekly to 1M
c) Each timeframe has a different combination of indicators for various interpretations.

My favourite set of indicators that I use frequently are:

1. M-Math v3:...


is there any chance you can post templat and indicators on the forum?
Thanks
  • #193,627
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:26am Jan 16, 2010 7:26am
I really appreciated your post. I copy it to a notecard for reading many times

But I'm really almost killed.

This pic is for laugh and pity from you.

I'm guessing 65% probabilities of margin call, account blow.

And.... now, if you and others could give me an opinion on the kind of gap we will have (how many pips?, which way?) I'm selling.

All in all, this forums and this thread rocks. It's the best place to learn and get multiple point of view from traders that REALLY care about earning not just a stupid report to gain website hits and silly selling.
  • #193,628
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:31am Jan 16, 2010 7:31am
Here is my proof of stupidity

It's ok, I will have another account in some months.
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  • #193,629
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:35am Jan 16, 2010 7:35am
Quoting bonus76
is there any chance you can post templat and indicators on the forum?
Thanks
I've just done the indicators as my template may not work for your screen etc etc. You'll have to adjust the FerruFx to get the widgets in the right section of your screen. Trial and Error :-)

Murrey Math, I tend to set to 128... if that's too small (depending on TF you zoom into), then I go to 256. The numbers are generally "octave" numbers... 8, 16,32,64,128,etc...

I'll leave the EMAs to you.

Good Luck!
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Indicators.zip   102 KB | 453 downloads
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,630
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:46am Jan 16, 2010 7:46am
Hello everyone,how was your trading week?Can anyone look into his/her crystal ball and tell me the likely movement of the GU for next week?http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #193,631
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:11am Jan 16, 2010 8:11am
Is the Pounds on its path of recovery?http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #193,632
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:15am Jan 16, 2010 8:15am
Quoting MartinR
I really appreciated your post. I copy it to a notecard for reading many times

But I'm really almost killed.

This pic is for laugh and pity from you.

I'm guessing 65% probabilities of margin call, account blow.

And.... now, if you and others could give me an opinion on the kind of gap we will have (how many pips?, which way?) I'm selling.

All in all, this forums and this thread rocks. It's the best place to learn and get multiple point of view from traders that REALLY care about earning not just a stupid report to gain website...
Hey Martin,

Whatever happens... don't let anyone else's comments faze you. It's a lesson you had to learn and it's a "great" experience that all good traders are familiar with. It at least should get you thinking about what NOT to do next time

I'd suggest also to perhaps take some time out??? And whilst you do, I recommend seeking out an FX Trading book called "Bird Watching in Lion Country". I'm in the middle of it now.... i think it may help you understand where you fit in in the grand FX scheme of things and perhaps if FX is really really for you.

When you're done.. turn off the computer, have a glass of wine and be thankful for the experience

Best of Luck.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,633
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:31am Jan 16, 2010 8:31am
we learn every day

update daily cable are we heading up to 16440 befor we go south
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  • #193,634
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:41am Jan 16, 2010 8:41am
Quoting kill56
we learn every day

update daily cable are we heading up to 16440 befor we go south
On the 4H.. according to my Murrey Math Lines, price around 1.64185 would signal a steep reversal down. Nice opportunity for a Short. Anything above 1.6448 would probably have enough strength to go higher to 1.6601.

Still I wouldn't mind a reversal down to 1.61133 if we do go south. If it bounces there, I think I'll go Long.

Right... gonna follow my own advice and turn off the computer!
Off to play geetar! Have a great weekend guys!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h.gif Size: 129 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #193,635
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:09am Jan 16, 2010 9:09am
Action Forex view

GBP/USD climbed further to 1.6353 last week as correction from 1.5829 continued but lose momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is still expected to be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 to conclude the correction. On the downside, below 1.6193 minor support will suggest that such correction has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.5829/5896 support zone. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.6875 has resumed for 1.5706 key cluster support.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the bearish case that medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Firm break of 1.5706 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3503 to 1.7043 at 1.5691) will confirm this case and indicate that whole down trend from 2.1161 is likely resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
However, note that sustain break of 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475. will in turn indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has completed and recent price actions from 1.7043 are merely consolidations to the larger rise from 1.3503 only. That is, whole medium term rise from 1.3503 might not be finished yet and another rise could still be seen to 1.7332/8236 (50% and 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503) before completion.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, should be limited by resistance zone of 1.7332/8236 and bring down trend resumption towards 1.4063 low. We'll hold on to the bearish view as long as 1.8236 fibonacci level holds.
  • #193,636
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:13am Jan 16, 2010 9:13am
Hello fellow traders,

It is not my intent to hijack this thread but to inform everyone of the pending changes to max leverage in the U.S. Retail Forex markets and grow a rallying movement.

Currently the CFTC has plans to lower max leverage to 10:1. We have roughly 57 days to comment on these proposed plans.

All traders even foreign traders that trade outside the U.S. should get involved. If the CFTC gets their way they might get other jurisdictions to follow suit.

This is the chance to voice your opinion of all the past erroneous laws that have been passed just recently as well.

We have a thread going here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=26

All the information you need including a basic form letter is included in the above link. If you decide to use the form letter besure to make a few changes to it so it stands out as your voice against the proposed non-sense.

Thank you to all in advance for your contribution to this cause.

Please don't comment in this thread about this, use the thread link above.

Ok now we return you to your original program......
  • #193,637
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:19am Jan 16, 2010 9:19am
Quoting pip_seeker
Hello fellow traders,

It is not my intent to hijack this thread but to inform everyone of the pending changes to max leverage in the U.S. Retail Forex markets and grow a rallying movement.

Currently the CFTC has plans to lower max leverage to 10:1. We have roughly 57 days to comment on these proposed plans.

All traders even foreign traders that trade outside the U.S. should get involved. If the CFTC gets their way they might get other jurisdictions to follow suit.

This is the chance to voice your opinion of all the past erroneous laws that...
1:10 is superb i love it
  • #193,638
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:26am Jan 16, 2010 9:26am
Quoting forexlion
1:10 is superb i love it
That's good for you. But should be restricted only to that choice?

America's theme is "Freedom and liberty for all."

How does that theme translate into non-sensical rules and regulation?

You must realize before the NFA got involved we were at 400:1.

The NFA lowered it to 100:1 in addition to all the other stupid rules.

If we don't stop them now it could drop to 1:1... how happy would you be about that?

Think with your brain before you speak again.
  • #193,639
  • Edited 11:36am Jan 16, 2010 9:31am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting forexlion
1:10 is superb i love it
Come on be serious
That's mean huge Equity to trade otherwise
A lot will be out of the market + A lot will get margin call
  • #193,640
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:37am Jan 16, 2010 9:37am
The DOW is expected to have a leg down, accordingly, the Dollar will rise, and all other currencies will go down..... There is more likely to be another financial crisis coming...I can just smell it...
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