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First-Strike & One-Night-Stand users, show yourself and your mods, if you dare!!!

  • #381
  • Dec 26, 2009 11:20pm Dec 26, 2009 11:20pm
Have been reading through the whole thread, seems abit quiet here now, maybe is because of the holiday seasons. Hope the new year will bring great profit for ppl trading using FSP.

Wish all a great year ahead!
  • #382
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:29pm Jan 8, 2010 2:29pm
Hey, how many of you guys still religiously taking every trade on the FSP system?

Are any of you in contact with Joel - as I see he hasn't updated his blog in a while?
  • #383
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:16am Jan 9, 2010 12:16am
I stopped taking the trades on the weekly time frame due to the poor performance. I will look into trading on the daily time frame as someone has already mentioned doing in this thread.

If weekly FSP expectancy is still positive, then great; however, I was not convinced.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #384
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:33am Jan 9, 2010 4:33am
Quoting cosgrove
I stopped taking the trades on the weekly time frame due to the poor performance. I will look into trading on the daily time frame as someone has already mentioned doing in this thread.

If weekly FSP expectancy is still positive, then great; however, I was not convinced.
How many losses did you get in a row on the weekly? I know Joel has said previously he has had over 15 straight losses and he just has to trade through it until the winners start coming - must be hard though!
  • #385
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:36pm Jan 9, 2010 2:36pm
Hello,

I'm still trading FSP and ONS through the drawdown. I've been adding money to my account during the drawdown which has masked it a bit. However my backtests indicate being in a 40-50% or so drawdown.

When you get a number of weeks of all 5 currencies getting stopped out, it can certainly be difficult! However, I do seem to have got used to it in a perverse way.

When the trends come...

Cheers,
Timek
  • #386
  • Jan 10, 2010 4:13am Jan 10, 2010 4:13am
Quoting Timek
Hello,

I'm still trading FSP and ONS through the drawdown. I've been adding money to my account during the drawdown which has masked it a bit. However my backtests indicate being in a 40-50% or so drawdown.

When you get a number of weeks of all 5 currencies getting stopped out, it can certainly be difficult! However, I do seem to have got used to it in a perverse way.

When the trends come...

Cheers,
Timek
That's great to hear Timek. The drawdown is probably inline with what can be expected with this system and you are well placed to profit when this year starts trending. If you don't mind, I'll send you a PM in a bit with a couple more questions.
  • #387
  • Jan 10, 2010 5:25am Jan 10, 2010 5:25am
Here is a visual reperesentation of FirstStrike....
It is coded exactly per FirstStrikeplus rules in pdf!
The blue and red lines are buy and sell, while red lines are SL for them.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: firststrike.gif Size: 20 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FirstStrike.mq4   4 KB | 1,137 downloads
File Type: pdf FirstStrike_Plus.pdf   171 KB | 1,455 downloads
forexflash
  • #388
  • Jan 10, 2010 1:07pm Jan 10, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting MattW
How many losses did you get in a row on the weekly? I know Joel has said previously he has had over 15 straight losses and he just has to trade through it until the winners start coming - must be hard though!
I didn't record trade-by-trade, but I did keep a week/week record (attached). It stops when I stopped. It might not be so bad if these were multiple trades/day, but given the long time frame, I couldn't see myself supporting myself through trading this method alone (which is the important part for me right now at least).

Net asset value is lower than balance due to an open losing silver position at the time, which I later exited at break even.
Attached Image
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #389
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:54am Jan 11, 2010 1:54am
do you realize how many traders would kill for an equity curve like that........1 year of trading on 5 pairs............so about 250 trades........and you still have an account left

I have an account for just FSP. Started with 1000 dollars about 3.5 months ago.........still sitting around that level - has been up to just over $1120 and down as low as 850...........looking to see what I can do over 7 years to 10 years.

my mm is pretty simple. I play one micro contract per pair for every $1000 in equity. Sometimes I may be over sized, but I am not too concerned about

Quoting cosgrove
I didn't record trade-by-trade, but I did keep a week/week record (attached). It stops when I stopped. It might not be so bad if these were multiple trades/day, but given the long time frame, I couldn't see myself supporting myself through trading this method alone (which is the important part for me right now at least).

Net asset value is lower than balance due to an open losing silver position at the time, which I later exited at break even.
  • #390
  • Jan 12, 2010 8:46am Jan 12, 2010 8:46am
Quoting razorboy
do you realize how many traders would kill for an equity curve like that........1 year of trading on 5 pairs............so about 250 trades........and you still have an account left
Thanks for your kind words. I must correct you though, as it is only 36 weeks so only ~180 trades

I risked 1% of my account balance per trade, and sometimes that meant trades once live were more than 1% due to losers that were not closed out yet (e.g. G/U short still open at the beginning of the week, but I still placed 10 new orders, so if the short were to stop out, all of those trades would now be like 1.1% or something.)

I keep meaning to write an EA to back test the (weekly) method myself, but I never seem to get around to it. I could have sworn someone already did it and posted results, (maybe even in this thread?) but then they were silenced for some reason?

I know someone modified the system and traded on a daily time frame with very nice results.
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #391
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:23pm Jan 12, 2010 1:23pm
Heres is something that I dont "get"

FSP/ONS is a type of breakout and trend following system right?
(Since it needs a strong trend early in the week and rides that momentum)
Is this assumption correct?

So the markets have been on steroids the past year and its still been a pretty much flat year, even with all the big moves up and down, but its has still been meandering and stuck in drawdowns. I think some sort of dynamic position sizing like that deals with drawdowns probably helps the prolonged drawdown periods, but I am losing my patience with it (not the money aspect, but the time commited of watching trades get stopped out each week and simply the fact that you are doing it to yourself)

This just shows something simple like FSP is still difficult to trade.

Could the edge have evaporated? Or is this one of those traders psychosis?
  • #392
  • Jan 13, 2010 2:35am Jan 13, 2010 2:35am
FSP does not backtest well on the last 5 years of data for any of the currency pairs. At best it is a break even system. I have done the code on TS. People who trade without backtesting first are nuts!
  • #393
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:08am Jan 13, 2010 8:08am
Quoting kazemakaze
and simply the fact that you are doing it to yourself
This quote combined with your user name made me laugh
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #394
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:15am Jan 14, 2010 6:15am
all that means was that the timings/sequences of the breakouts/moves were not in line with they method, much like how a player can go on a hot streak in a casino (assuming you are the casino here) even when the odds are not in the players favor.

The point of the method is to keep you in the game with enough capital to keep taking trades until your numbers come up. Given that this is a weekly system, you have to have a pretty large time frame for the edge to take effect

For the investement of time each week - about 20 minutes.....I pretty much set it and forget it every week at 1 am est. No I wont retire on this account in 5 years, but it may pay for a car or vacation

Quoting kazemakaze
Heres is something that I dont "get"

FSP/ONS is a type of breakout and trend following system right?
(Since it needs a strong trend early in the week and rides that momentum)
Is this assumption correct?

So the markets have been on steroids the past year and its still been a pretty much flat year, even with all the big moves up and down, but its has still been meandering and stuck in drawdowns. I think some sort of dynamic position sizing like that deals with drawdowns probably helps the prolonged drawdown periods, but I am losing my patience...
  • #395
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:09pm Jan 14, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting razorboy
For the investement of time each week - about 20 minutes.....I pretty much set it and forget it every week at 1 am est. No I wont retire on this account in 5 years, but it may pay for a car or vacation
http://www.jesse-livermore.com/blog/...ermores-birth/
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #396
  • Jan 14, 2010 8:21pm Jan 14, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting patrickon
FSP does not backtest well on the last 5 years of data for any of the currency pairs. At best it is a break even system. I have done the code on TS. People who trade without backtesting first are nuts!

How have you backtested the FSP system? Did you use a EA? Could you post the equity curve?

I am still looking for an EA. The system is simple but there is still no EA available in FF. Unfortunately, I have no clue how to program an EA in MT4, may be you could help?

Best regards
  • #397
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:33am Jan 15, 2010 2:33am
In response to GETRICH FAST:

I used tradestation (TS) which is a standard package used by many traders and by joel rensink himself. I will post the equity curves soon (i'm not at my computer at the moment)... but be warned: the equity curves are UGLY... i would say this system is untradeable and anyone who is trading it is nuts.... especially if you haven't done the homework and backtested it yourself... i would say this equally applies to JR's other system London Squeeze...
  • #398
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:16am Jan 20, 2010 10:16am
Quoting FOREXflash
Here is a visual reperesentation of FirstStrike....
It is coded exactly per FirstStrikeplus rules in pdf!
The blue and red lines are buy and sell, while red lines are SL for them.

Regards
Hi, thanks for this usefull indicator, maybe if we had the historical datas we can check in visual mode for previous weeks.

thanks,

Greg
  • #399
  • Jan 23, 2010 8:38am Jan 23, 2010 8:38am
Hi all.
I posted some results of my own backtests in this same thread some months ago.
I am still trading my personal modifications of this method, on both weekly and daily timeframes, 5 pairs.
I am facing a drawdown especially on EUR/USD, but the not good results are mitigated by the results on the other pairs.
Of course I'm going to keep on putting orders.
  • #400
  • Jan 23, 2010 9:21am Jan 23, 2010 9:21am
Quoting asasa
Hi all.
I posted some results of my own backtests in this same thread some months ago.
I am still trading my personal modifications of this method, on both weekly and daily timeframes, 5 pairs.
I am facing a drawdown especially on EUR/USD, but the not good results are mitigated by the results on the other pairs.
Of course I'm going to keep on putting orders.
Here is the 10-year backtest on EUR/USD (weekly strategy only), displaying the current drawdown...
I definitely keep on trading this method...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.JPG Size: 50 KB
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