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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #191,841
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:26am Jan 9, 2010 11:26am
Quoting isguru
Sorry to drang this, but cld be confsing for newones, hers two of your post on DTs thred thisweek where you isnist, donbuy. Are younow sayng is okay? Im stilllearning, and can only trade one dayweek until my treatment completeso read all posts mainly at weekend. Is it now okay to buy if opprtiunty present?
1-Buy And Sell depends on everyone view
2-I don't make a calls i say my view they don't accepting it or take it as attacking DT I sent this because i read post from DT he lost take a buy position and that make me nerves why very good trader like dt lose so i sent why buy while we should sell because we downtrend in daily and economy report say UK in very bad situation.

Hope i was answer your query and plz subject is close.
  • #191,842
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:32am Jan 9, 2010 11:32am
GU weekly
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  • #191,843
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:34am Jan 9, 2010 11:34am
It looks like a descending channel for USD for another couple of weeks, hence, I strongly believe that Gu will go up again to touch 1.64 levels before start coming down again...I dont think UK economy is in a complete mess as some believe, ig UK has $200 Billon debt, well US has $1 Trillion debt. So is we compare the both its like comparing apple to oranges...

My personal belief is that, when the Dow hits peak towrds 10,700 levels, then we could see some direction setting. There are anticipation that this is the big roar in the equity market, the equity is bound to make a V shape recovery and will continuously go higher to peak the ever highst points, and there are others saying that it might peak up at 10,700 and will head south again...

Hence, once the US equity markets give a strong signal, then only the direction will be clear...On the other hand, Gold will remain on alert as long credit worthiness of the US is on the radar screen...since, the previous capitalism will not repeat itself, and people are becoming more vigilant to debt and saving more...we might as well see new employment figures coming and new economic models emerging...which means strength to the Dollar ???? or decoupling from the previous correlation ???

What all means is ...CONFUSION


OH yes, and welcome to age of specualtion....today, the number of traders trading electroncially online are more than ever before, adding more to volatility, manipulation, and confusion
  • #191,844
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:49am Jan 9, 2010 11:49am
GU is making a good base on the 1M, 5M and the 15M has just crossed over into a long trend. 1H still points down according to what I see. 15M crosing of the 55 SMA over the 100 and 200 SMA is a pretty strong move, but one that should produce a little volitility for short and long trades. I will most likely be watching for the 15M chart to at least go down and bounce of one of the SMA's below it, maybe a few times before there will be enough base to excell the 1H chart into Bull terrirtory.

If we get any momentum draging the 1M and 5M back significantly lower, we could even see a couple days around this 1.6 area yet or longer while the charts make up there minds. Just my 2 cents worth anyway.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #191,845
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm
I think the confusion is linked to the expected Chinese Bubble Burst..

If the Chinese buble burst, How would that impact Gu ?
  • #191,846
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm Jan 9, 2010 12:00pm
My weekly shows a little different picture based on how I draw my TL's. They are of course not always right, but this is what I am looking at anyway. Lower TL has been broken which leads me to a little more biased to the downside, but there is definitely merit to the arguents that are seeing this as a range and up we go. Have to watch the charts and see I guess.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #191,847
  • Jan 9, 2010 12:04pm Jan 9, 2010 12:04pm
1st, I think it could be the scenario that it most likely to happen, GBP/USD will rise to 1.6233 - 1.6350 then we are going to sell it to 1.5549 - 1.5431

2nd, in case it brakes 1.5831 we sell with same previous targets

take a look to the uploaded photo...Good Luck
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  • #191,848
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:47pm Jan 9, 2010 1:47pm
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Hi all wont have the new pivot levels till mkt open , think at the very least it will test the highs from Friday, above tht a shot at last weeks high wouldnt be far fetched, A note of caution tho the daily still seems weak looking to me just my 1 cents worth
  • #191,849
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:58pm Jan 9, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting Jassim
I think the confusion is linked to the expected Chinese Bubble Burst..

If the Chinese buble burst, How would that impact Gu ?

say hello 1.2500 ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,850
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:08pm Jan 9, 2010 2:08pm
I love it when consolidation sets in ...everyone gets completely confused ... including my self

i have seem gartly , longs to 1.6700 shorts to 1.3500

After having a great nights sleep , hitting the gym this morning and lookng at the charts with a calm and rested mind . I have come up with the following

we are in a range between 2 major s/r on the weekly .... top of range is 1.6180 , bottom is 1.5870 is

there are also 2 sets of trend lines...

now if we get a daily close above 1.6180 then we will be in the next range bracket up , 1.6180 to 1.6700 , daily close under 1.5870 then we see 1st test 1.5750 and see what happens from there could go to 1.5625 as there is a support line on weekly there

basically we are range bound

for guy that commented on DJ .. i also attached Fridays dj daily chart , seems no buying interest and we are right against 8/8 mml ... could be sign of weakness

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,851
  • Jan 9, 2010 3:57pm Jan 9, 2010 3:57pm
Quoting malcolmb14
say hello 1.2500 ....
Why please explain?
In my small view if the chinese bubble burst we will see 2.0 may be 2.5 first. because of USD selling pressure (Treasurys Selling).
China has 2.2 trillion $ and they will withdraw from it and convert it to renminbi. So USD will be down and renminbi will be up.
and if that happend USA will raise the interset rates very very high with the high inflation rates or without.
So $ will start to go up and may be we see 1.25 as you said.

this is my 2 cents from my undertsanding.
  • #191,852
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:09pm Jan 9, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
Why please explain?
In my small view if the chinese bubble burst we will see 2.0 may be 2.5 first. because of USD selling pressure (Treasurys Selling).
China has 2.2 trillion $ and they will withdraw from it and convert it to renminbi. So USD will be down and renminbi will be up.
and if that happend USA will raise the interset rates very very high with the high inflation rates or without.
So $ will start to go up and may be we see 1.25 as you said.

this is my 2 cents from my undertsanding.

simple USD will be flight to safety ... much like it was in credit crisis of 2008
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,853
  • Jan 9, 2010 4:32pm Jan 9, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
Why please explain?
In my small view if the chinese bubble burst we will see 2.0 may be 2.5 first. because of USD selling pressure (Treasurys Selling).
China has 2.2 trillion $ and they will withdraw from it and convert it to renminbi. So USD will be down and renminbi will be up.
and if that happend USA will raise the interset rates very very high with the high inflation rates or without.
So $ will start to go up and may be we see 1.25 as you said.

this is my 2 cents from my undertsanding.
No way in hell will we see 2.0 or 2.5. Sterling, euro, aussie are all going to crash if China were to have a burst.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #191,854
  • Jan 10, 2010 1:01am Jan 10, 2010 1:01am
I dont think they will all crash with such a news. remember the day when Dubai came with the news that it wont be able to make payments for its loan and all of a sudden cable shot up 100 pips. This is was mid december. So, this bubble is 100 times worst, so cable will shoot up 2.5
  • #191,855
  • Jan 10, 2010 2:46am Jan 10, 2010 2:46am
MAx 1.65 ~
  • #191,856
  • Jan 10, 2010 2:53am Jan 10, 2010 2:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
say hello 1.2500 ....
1.25?????? wtf
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #191,857
  • Jan 10, 2010 5:28am Jan 10, 2010 5:28am
Honestly, this CHINA questions sound very fishie. This can absolutely turn into DUBAI/GREECE thing that we have seen in recent past. So staying out of trades would be my advice until the real news hits the markets. It could come at anytime next week. So be careful traders don't want to be on the wrong side or even getting lucky in this market even though could be very profitable is not a wise thing to do. Make wise decisions and don't get caught up in the shock news releases, cuz they can hurt like a bitch.
my predictions the news either will hit on Monday or Friday or even Thursdays.
When shit hits the fan, then scalp of the dollars bear market that if it does happen will provide a week long bear trends across the board for the dollar.
  • #191,858
  • Jan 10, 2010 5:38am Jan 10, 2010 5:38am
China will likely spend full amount of stimulus in 2010, finance minister says
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-....html?x=0&.v=4

Mal,
your analysis please regarding this
  • #191,859
  • Jan 10, 2010 5:57am Jan 10, 2010 5:57am
Quoting kilalik
When shit hits the fan, .
make sure your roses benefit
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #191,860
  • Jan 10, 2010 6:58am Jan 10, 2010 6:58am
Quoting malcolmb14
I love it when consolidation sets in ...everyone gets completely confused ... including my self

i have seem gartly , longs to 1.6700 shorts to 1.3500

After having a great nights sleep , hitting the gym this morning and lookng at the charts with a calm and rested mind . I have come up with the following

we are in a range between 2 major s/r on the weekly .... top of range is 1.6180 , bottom is 1.5870 is

there are also 2 sets of trend lines...

now if we get a daily close above 1.6180 then we will be in the next range bracket up , 1.6180...
same here...thanx malc..i can see it too..
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