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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #191,821
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:08pm Jan 8, 2010 3:08pm
maybe you're better advised to read the posts carefully before taking a random shot at replying to something which didn't reference you!


"Why on earth" is the conclusion of the arguments I outlined in my previous two posts NOT the argument itself....

Please either contribute something useful OR don't waste your valuable time!



Quoting Big1red9
12 months ago GU was at 1.35
12 months before that it was at 2.00

The argument for why on earth would anyone do something in the markets is not a good approach.... it doesn't work. The history has proved the future will show it.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #191,822
  • Edited 4:20pm Jan 8, 2010 3:50pm | Edited 4:20pm
GM,

First, this isn't my ego against yours. I was trying to point to a flaw in your analysis or your conclusion (you pick), to help you not to be right. I have been involved in all aspects of the markets since the late 70's and have nothing to prove to anyone. I spend time when I can to see what my experience might do to help someone and to be exposed to new things and learn.

Next, I read your post but didn't have the time to go over that which I have said in earlier posts... So I thought I would bottom-line it - sorry for getting to the point to quick.

I do not agree with your weekly chart. We have been in a downward trading channel since 11/15 - as I view it and have traded accordingly. I have closed down 85% of my shorts that I have had on for weeks.

I am looking for the signs of a bottom to go long, but do not see it yet.

I am not saying where GU is going because I do not know. I do know anything is possible and those with the financial power and need will create the chart pattern they need to over time. It is their equivalent of a sexy legged gal on TV or the casino lights flashing. It is how they advertise the opportunity to loose all you money and have people do it.

We can do a postmortem on it in 3 to 6 months or not, doesn't matter to me.

BR

Quoting GlobalMacro
maybe you're better advised to read the posts carefully before taking a random shot at replying to something which didn't reference you!


"Why on earth" is the conclusion of the arguments I outlined in my previous two posts NOT the argument itself....

Please either contribute something useful OR don't waste your valuable time!
  • #191,823
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:51pm Jan 8, 2010 3:51pm
montly clearly bearish

lovely rounded top = distribution .. not designed for lousy 1000 pip move

key on the charts is 1.6180 as mentioned I will sell every rally till this is taken out

also you have completely ignored fact that daily isstill in a down trend channel

plus volume rarely lies ... why have a move on news that was actualy usd +ve ( 85 k was less than expected but ignore the 11 k from last month and NFP result slope is still positive on monthly charts ... and if news is so bad for usd why did s&p break out to new 16 month high today)

daily is wedge

6180 is key IMHO

should be an interesting week moving forward one way or another

The OB condition and high vol that you refer to was the HIGHEST VOLUME OF DEC . Think about what that means.

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Quoting GlobalMacro
Like I said, the high volume sell-off @ 1.6100 resistance was a response to O/B conditions and nothing more than an intraday quickie!

Those who took profits below 1.6000, good for them...however, those who didn't are in for a rude awakening getting squeezed out good.... which is already in progress.


Why on earth would anyone wanna sell medium-to-long-term into this formation after the price has already fallen 1000 odd pips in the previous months....what's the incentive? None as far as I can see....

On the daily, we have a double-dip off...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,824
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:56pm Jan 8, 2010 3:56pm
Well, just as is the norm for me. I get tired, get out with a nice profit and the trade goes in my direction forever

Well, I have not done this before, but based on what I see on the H1 and M15 charts, I have opened a small short trade for over the weekend. I am exptecting more sell off.

Hope you all made green pips!!!!!

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #191,825
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:08pm Jan 8, 2010 4:08pm
My bias is definitely down after seeing this...... a diamond on the 4 Hr chart.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #191,826
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:45pm Jan 8, 2010 4:45pm
It may prove to be useful for those willing to invest the time to read about Quantum Fund (Soros) and its crushing of the Pound with a 10 billion (with a "B") short position.

All try's to stop it failed...

The government raised interest rates 3 times in 1 day.
Pulled on its gold reserves... and prepared to borrow 15 billion to fight the short.

Prices kept dropping and finally the Bank of England withdrew the currency from the exchange rate.

Chart pattens meant nothing.

IN NO WAY AM I SUGGESTING THIS IS, WILL OR CAN HAPPEN again


Don't fall prey to the belief that your 200 MA, your double bottom wishbone, zig zag formation or host of 5000 other indicators along with the 500 different trend lines will have any meaning.

BR
  • #191,827
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:27pm Jan 8, 2010 7:27pm
Hey my research and market analysis is telling me that USD will open up on bullsih across the board on Sunday.

I had the same prediction on the GBP last week, that came out to be true, but I had minor mistake on the magnitude of the drop, which was 80-100 pips across the board.

Any thoughts on this!
  • #191,828
  • Jan 8, 2010 8:35pm Jan 8, 2010 8:35pm
Quoting kilalik
Hey my research and market analysis is telling me that USD will open up on bullsih across the board on Sunday.

I had the same prediction on the GBP last week, that came out to be true, but I had minor mistake on the magnitude of the drop, which was 80-100 pips across the board.

Any thoughts on this!
Britain faces ‘toughest cuts for 20 years’

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6981594.ece

this article tells me that pound is going to go up by at least 80 pips when the markets open...
there are also moderating weather forecasts so I would be long GBP....
  • #191,829
  • Edited 11:15pm Jan 8, 2010 8:43pm | Edited 11:15pm
Quoting Magix
Near as I got it figured...a true H&S has to have a higher right shoulder then left...which is what we actually just saw/are seeing...But as far as goes, I will stick more the the falic or obscene form of this, and will now and from here on out refer to the H&S formation as the "Frank and Beans".

My 15m chart seems to be tipping its hand.

Typically as price moves up, so does the moving averages...kinda makes sense, but the area circled on the 15m chart shows that as price is rising...support is dropping, have see this on an hourly a couple...
I have a question on your Method to my madness.the indicators you listed are
they for MT4.I'm asking because I loaded them into MT4 and no luck not working.If it's for MT4 did I put them in the wrong folder.Could u help.
thanks for your time.
  • #191,830
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:12am Jan 9, 2010 9:12am
Quoting smokepips
I have a question on your Method to my madness.the indicators you listed are
they for MT4.I'm asking because I loaded them into MT4 and no luck not working.If it's for MT4 did I put them in the wrong folder.Could u help.
thanks for your time.
The 4 indicators (.ex4, .mq4)go into your experts/indicators folder. If you did a standard installation, directory should look like this...

Crogram Files(Brokername)MetaTraderexpertsindicators

From there, add the simplex.tpl to templates folder.

Crogram Files(Brokername)MetaTradertemplates

Close down meta4 charts, open again.

Once the chart is open, click on the templates tab and select simplex and your chart should resemble the ones that I post.

Feel free to ask as many questions as you need to, but please keep questions on the mtf on my thread, so as not to clutter up the cable thread, as well as responses on the thread may also help others.

Hope this helps.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #191,831
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:41am Jan 9, 2010 9:41am
If I will trade what I see not what I think I will Long cable.
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  • #191,832
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:14am Jan 9, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Baby-Trader
If I will trade what I see not what I think I will Long cable.
In my view:
The good news is both bear and bull can make profit
Market ranging but power will be to U$ side "Trend down" On my daily chart
Top:1.6200
Bottom:1.5750
Long or short Pick up your entry
  • #191,833
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:42am Jan 9, 2010 10:42am
engkd, srroy, yuo argu on another post that nbody shd long but keep buiding up shorts, why you say difrent in this thread?

My frnd Ibka was syaing both bullandbear can make profit, you disagree on dts thread, no? has your vew chnged?

Quoting egkid
In my view:
The good news is both bear and bull can make profit
Market ranging but power will be to U$ side "Trend down" On my daily chart
Top:1.6200
Bottom:1.5750
Long or short Pick up your entry
Quoting egkid
This is nuts
1- I'm not responsible about darK side of you guys if you take it like this
2-Apologies BECAUSE I say it downtrend and we shouldn't buy
Take IT OR LEAVE IT
  • #191,834
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:47am Jan 9, 2010 10:47am
Quoting egkid
In my view:
The good news is both bear and bull can make profit
Market ranging but power will be to U$ side "Trend down" On my daily chart
Top:1.6200
Bottom:1.5750
Long or short Pick up your entry
Yes bro,
you are right, till now we still in the range from 1.5829 to 1.6230.
a break of either sides will indicate the direction of the major move.

a break of 1.5829 will target 1.5706 first and a break there will open the way to 1.5348.

but current PA and the current candle stick formations prove that we will touch 1.6230 first (maybe I'm wrong).

and if the price breaks 1.6230 I'll buy all dips.
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  • #191,835
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:50am Jan 9, 2010 10:50am
Quoting isguru
engkd, srroy, yuo argu on another post that nbody shd long but keep buiding up shorts, why you say difrent in this thread?

My frnd Ibka was syaing both bullandbear can make profit, you disagree on dts thread, no? has your vew chnged?
1-I didn't say no body should not long GM Have long position and everyone do what chart tell him BUT i tell my view which is Trade with trend we are in downtrend and in my view i don't like trade against it beside UK economy mess so it's your decision not mine

2-For me i have sell and will add if we go up ,When i say both can make profit it's true but The risk is your decision "If it have chance to go up 40% I would go with other 60% which is down not up but also depends on each one view and decision"

If anyone like economy view and talks check this
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post3352549
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  • #191,836
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:53am Jan 9, 2010 10:53am
As Isee it on 4H candle stick chart, there is a long morning star, which indicates a major change in trend to take place... Now, is it going to be to the down side or the upside...well, my observation is that since the long morning star candle stick happened in the bottom, the trend is bound to go upward now...Hence, I would be careful if I am shorting Gu until proper confirmation..
  • #191,837
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:55am Jan 9, 2010 10:55am
Quoting Jassim
As Isee it on 4H candle stick chart, there is a long morning star, which indicates a major change in trend to take place... Now, is it going to be to the down side or the upside...well, my observation is that since the long morning star candle stick happened in the bottom, the trend is bound to go upward now...Hence, I would be careful if I am shorting Gu until proper confirmation..
I hold some shorts and will manage to close them ASAP.
  • #191,838
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:03am Jan 9, 2010 11:03am
Hi baby trader,

Since the Dow closed upward in the closing session of Friday as I expected, I placed a long at 1,580 nd closed my position at 1,625 and I made a good 45 pips whihc I cannot complaint...However, my expectation now for Monday is that the currencies will be most likely to move up accordingly...

However, in the medium term, the outlook on Gu is bearish becuase the US fed will face a pressure to increase the interest as a way forward which will cause a big confusion in the forex market in the upcoming session, hence, expect a great volaitility in the market and DO NOT LISTEN TO BEARISH comments in here for the immediate term which is very disturbing.. It will happen, yes, but you will also will get caught in big market volatility as well, which could wipe out your account without risk management .

My point is, there is no proper confirmation for the direction yet, the norm will be volatility for some time to come and great confusions,,,, so manage your trades accordingly
  • #191,839
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:12am Jan 9, 2010 11:12am
Sorry to drang this, but cld be confsing for newones, hers two of your post on DTs thred thisweek where you isnist, donbuy. Are younow sayng is okay? Im stilllearning, and can only trade one dayweek until my treatment completeso read all posts mainly at weekend. Is it now okay to buy if opprtiunty present?

another post, youwere sayng clearly "iss no-no" to go long in downtrend, rther thnkeep adding shors. Ithnk thas what peple were sying to you on dts trhd dat you can go long or short but your tonesmeed to sugest evryone else was wrong. we still in downtrnd, but you now agre long or short everyone make money yes, or no?

Quoting egkid
1-I didn't say no body should not long GM Have long position and everyone do what chart tell him BUT i tell my view which is Trade with trend we are in downtrend and in my view i don't like trade against it beside UK economy mess so it's your decision not mine

2-For me i have sell and will add if we go up ,When i say both can make profit it's true but The risk is your decision "If it have chance to go up 40% I would go with other 60% which is down not up but also depends on each one view and decision"

If anyone like economy view and talks...
　
Quoting egkid
Hope some of guys attacking me for nothing yesterday Understand now what i mean by sell each rally and don't buy because we in Downtrend and UK economy mess.
　
Quoting egkid
Maybe i wasn't CLEAR enough!
First this comment "am not sure if you are trying to pick a fight..." Totally not true and also to IBKA, Bro i'm NOT post to say I'm right and anyone wrong!!!
It's All about one simple question i have no answer to it,So if you have answer post it.
If you guys know UK economy in mess as DT says and gratefully explain that AND technically the trend is down "Why you guys BUY and NOT sell any up move??
Thanks
  • #191,840
  • Jan 9, 2010 11:23am Jan 9, 2010 11:23am
USDX
Is it a flag or new desc channel????
Time will tell
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