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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #191,801
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:09pm Jan 8, 2010 1:09pm
Hi Magix... nodding.

Can you imagine the trading desk... beer flowing... some yelling sell a bit more ...more there now buy buy buy as they all laugh. Nothing better to do.

BR



Quoting Magix
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=191752

See link....Way ahead of ya on that one mango.
  • #191,802
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:16pm Jan 8, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Liquid
NFP Numbers were released earlier and were not too good for the USD. .
The NFP was only the final piece of an orchestrated scenario, that began during the week. The numbers were neither bad nor unexpected. If you look at the historical NFP numbers, a change of 85,000 is minimal. The 3,000 shown as "expected" is laughable, 3,000 jobs change in a population of over 300,000,000 is not a reasonable number. If they had wanted to be honest (statistically) they would have said 'no change'. Instead they used the very questionable 4,000 number from last week and lowered it..lol I'm sure those numbers will be 'adjusted' retroactively... You all might note that the main attack came after the London Fix. All this will hardly show in the charts???

I am pretty sure that all this manipulation is leading up to next friday's options expirey. That should be very interesting.

If you want to keep your money, don't believe anything you see or hear, and don't let anyone 'force' you to make a trade!
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #191,803
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:21pm Jan 8, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting Magix
I am not a big fan of candle stick patterns, but this one seems timely and appropriate...This is just a guess, but follow the red line, I think you will agree that the charts are trying to speak, and this time, it's more then just a candle pattern, it's a universal hand gesture.
I saw the formation as it was building but I didn't spot the "salute"..lol

Actually, when I looked at your chart the first thing I thought of was "Kilroy"...You are much more observant and politically correct..
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #191,804
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:23pm Jan 8, 2010 1:23pm


Quoting Artcritique
The NFP was only the final piece of an orchestrated scenario, that began during the week. The numbers were neither bad nor unexpected. If you look at the historical NFP numbers, a change of 85,000 is minimal. The 3,000 shown as "expected" is laughable, 3,000 jobs change in a population of over 300,000,000 is not a reasonable number. If they had wanted to be honest (statistically) they would have said 'no change'. Instead they used the very questionable 4,000 number from last week and lowered it..lol I'm sure those numbers will be 'adjusted' retroactively......
  • #191,805
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:26pm Jan 8, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Big1red9
I also spend most of my time running around, crowing; "I'm so smart"...
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #191,806
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:40pm Jan 8, 2010 1:40pm
that explains why some is defending 14300... they liekly have an options expiration in this zone and do not want it to drop

Quoting Artcritique
The NFP was only the final piece of an orchestrated scenario, that began during the week. The numbers were neither bad nor unexpected. If you look at the historical NFP numbers, a change of 85,000 is minimal. The 3,000 shown as "expected" is laughable, 3,000 jobs change in a population of over 300,000,000 is not a reasonable number. If they had wanted to be honest (statistically) they would have said 'no change'. Instead they used the very questionable 4,000 number from last week and lowered it..lol I'm sure those numbers will be 'adjusted' retroactively......
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,807
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:46pm Jan 8, 2010 1:46pm
looks like the pros are stop hunting......
  • #191,808
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:52pm Jan 8, 2010 1:52pm
Much as I hate it, anyone who sets a stoploss that close to a top on a friday afternoon 'almost' deserves it.

Quoting joemiami
looks like the pros are stop hunting......
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #191,809
  • Edited 2:24pm Jan 8, 2010 1:52pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Bearish momentum subsided today
Cable tested former down TL around 1.5920 and bounced

As such I'm buying here @ 1.5955 ...just below yesterday's stopout level anticipating re-entry into prior range zone.


Merry Christmas!
Alright.....Cable Aficionados,

The selloff off resistance @ 1.6100 was a response to the O/B conditions following rapid rise post-NFP....

The mini bear trap below 1.6000 might have been a final flush-out attempt at weak longs today....

Price trading back up into mid-1.6000s right now...there is low volume accompanying this rise because this is not active buying but rather shorts' stops who sold off above-mentioned resistance are being triggered and thus squeezing them out...therefore no volume but higher price levels.....

Today's PA concludes the week-long saga putting in a handsome "higher low" on the daily bouncing off hard off the tip of the wedge...


I Will Continue To Carry My Long Position Set @ 1.5955


Have A Great Weekend Everyone!
Attached Images
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #191,810
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:59pm Jan 8, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting Artcritique
Much as I hate it, anyone who sets a stoploss that close to a top on a friday afternoon 'almost' deserves it.

Which is why I never use stops at H&S tops with weak volume....

still holding my short from 6038
  • #191,811
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:59pm Jan 8, 2010 1:59pm
err the volume at 6100 was HIGHEST for dec, price dropped 125 then we had profit taking into end of day(high vol up bar was massive selling imho) , couple that with odd 400 pip move we saw that was given back as soon as real volume came back into market .. it is not IF but when 1.5750 will be tested. Will wait till then and see what happens. In the mean time the range is good to trade...mostly seems to move in asia thru london then reverses in us

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gud02.gif Size: 34 KB




Quoting GlobalMacro
Alright.....Cable Afinionados,

The selloff off resistance @ 1.6100 was a response to the O/B conditions following rapid rise post-NFP....

The mini bear trap below 1.6000 might have been a final flush-out attempt at weak longs today....

Price trading back up into mid-1.6000s right now...there is low volume accompanying this rise because this is not active buying but rather shorts' stops who sold off above-mentioned resistance are being triggered and thus squeezing them out...therefore no volume but higher price levels.....

Today's PA concludes...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,812
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:02pm Jan 8, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
err the volume at 6100 was HIGHEST for dec, price dropped 125 then we had profit taking into end of day(high vol up bar was massive selling imho) , couple that with odd 400 pip move we saw that was given back as soon as real volume came back into market .. it is not IF but when 1.5750 will be tested. Will wait till then and see what happens. In the mean time the range is good to trade...mostly seems to move in asia thru london then reverses in us

Attachment


daily ace of diamonds in play ..... which line gives 1st ?

till upper tl break I am selling all rallies

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gud02.gif Size: 26 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #191,813
  • Edited 2:33pm Jan 8, 2010 2:19pm | Edited 2:33pm
Like I said, the high volume sell-off @ 1.6100 resistance was a response to O/B conditions and nothing more than an intraday quickie!

Those who took profits below 1.6000, good for them...however, those who didn't are in for a rude awakening getting squeezed out good.... which is already in progress.


Why on earth would anyone wanna sell medium-to-long-term into this formation after the price has already fallen 1000 odd pips in the previous months....what's the incentive? None as far as I can see....

On the daily, we have a double-dip off the tip of the wedge at the bottom of previous month's sell-off which definitely favors a bullish position....

Even on the weekly we have a double-dip!!!



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1262982250






Quoting malcolmb14
err the volume at 6100 was HIGHEST for dec, price dropped 125 then we had profit taking into end of day(high vol up bar was massive selling imho) , couple that with odd 400 pip move we saw that was given back as soon as real volume came back into market .. it is not IF but when 1.5750 will be tested. Will wait till then and see what happens. In the mean time the range is good to trade...mostly seems to move in asia thru london then reverses in us

Attachment
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #191,814
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:22pm Jan 8, 2010 2:22pm
Near as I got it figured...a true H&S has to have a higher right shoulder then left...which is what we actually just saw/are seeing...But as far as goes, I will stick more the the falic or obscene form of this, and will now and from here on out refer to the H&S formation as the "Frank and Beans".

My 15m chart seems to be tipping its hand.

Typically as price moves up, so does the moving averages...kinda makes sense, but the area circled on the 15m chart shows that as price is rising...support is dropping, have see this on an hourly a couple of times and just caught the play for sale in the nick of time. Going into the closing hours of Friday, I am still not motivated and because we still are above support, a sell here though probably will be grandly profitable goes against my safe trading new years resolution, so, I will still wait on confirmation as my trade zones dictate.

Best of luck to the weekend holders, and lets see the completion of the Frank and Beans!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tip.GIF Size: 30 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #191,815
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:22pm Jan 8, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting Artcritique
The NFP was only the final piece of an orchestrated scenario, that began during the week. The numbers were neither bad nor unexpected. If you look at the historical NFP numbers, a change of 85,000 is minimal. The 3,000 shown as "expected" is laughable, 3,000 jobs change in a population of over 300,000,000 is not a reasonable number. If they had wanted to be honest (statistically) they would have said 'no change'. Instead they used the very questionable 4,000 number from last week and lowered it..lol I'm sure those numbers will be 'adjusted' retroactively......
85k is minimal when unemployment rate is low, the higher unemployment rate gets the smaller the employed population is... so yes, if you go back and look at the NFP changes 85k might be minimal, but you need to take the ratio.
  • #191,816
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:37pm Jan 8, 2010 2:37pm
If we look at the 4h TF we will see levels of resistance @ 1.6078 and 1.6056. Notice how price has bounced off of these levels. We will see if these levels will hold early next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-4h.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #191,817
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:39pm Jan 8, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting allserene
are you staying in for a few days ? ie over the weekend

hate that whippy stuff over the gap

Sorry, been away.

Never an interest in holding over the weekends. Too risky.
I am still short and will manage it only another hour.

Dr. D.
  • #191,818
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:00pm Jan 8, 2010 3:00pm
12 months ago GU was at 1.35
12 months before that it was at 2.00

The argument for why on earth would anyone do something in the markets is not a good approach.... it doesn't work. The history has proved the future will show it.


Quoting GlobalMacro
Like I said, the high volume sell-off @ 1.6100 resistance was a response to O/B conditions and nothing more than an intraday quickie!

Those who took profits below 1.6000, good for them...however, those who didn't are in for a rude awakening getting squeezed out good.... which is already in progress.


Why on earth would anyone wanna sell medium-to-long-term into this formation after the price has already fallen 1000 odd pips in the previous months....what's the incentive? None as far as I can see....

On the daily, we have a double-dip off...
  • #191,819
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:02pm Jan 8, 2010 3:02pm
nighty all have agreat weekend
  • #191,820
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:05pm Jan 8, 2010 3:05pm
Something to watch in the days and weeks to come. Doesn't happen too often as it takes months to form... but when it releases. Look out. Last time there was a tight compression and release off of a daily chart produced ~6,285 pips from 8/03/08 thru 1/26/09.

Most compressions release up (or down) through the pinch (either for the full move or as a fake out) but to complete the convergence to a tight coil it could even drop again down to the lower points on the chart and then back thru by the time all the EMA have fully drawn together. I would be surprised if it doesn't take run up at the tightly pack EMA's.

So either way (up or down) this should generate massive movement. In light of this formation, everyone's analysis is valid... just depends on the TF you are in.

Just my perspective.

Dr. D.
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