Two charts of U/J. The first is zoomed out and the second is in close.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues
- #9,101
- Jan 7, 2010 8:55am Jan 7, 2010 8:55am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
- #9,104
- Jan 7, 2010 9:14am Jan 7, 2010 9:14am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
- #9,105
- Jan 7, 2010 9:20am Jan 7, 2010 9:20am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
- #9,106
- Jan 7, 2010 4:46pm Jan 7, 2010 4:46pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts
gdb, in regards to taking "every setup" imagine if you were Peter Crown. He does not wake up at the Tokyo open and trade for 24 hours until the the next Tokyo open. Probably at best he catches the start of 1 or 2 sessions. Imagine all those traders working prop desks, all the forex dealers, the interbank market makers: they all hit the market at the open of their local session and turn off the terminal at the end. If you read the book as it seems you did, you should know the first element of a trading plan is "which markets to trade". This definitely implies "when to trade those markets".
I don't mind daily IBs but I really dislike 4hour IBs. To me H4 is an arbitrary timeframe and only works good on some pairs. For example, I prefer H2 on USDJPY. H1 is much less arbitrary imo, each OLHC provides some useful information. But that is just a matter of personal preference, I am not having a dig at you.
I was thinking more about this statement last night during the NY open and I wanted to return to it from a different angle. Let me pose a hypothetical:
razorboy, let's say you are German prop desk trader X with "a lot of capital to start with". Let's say I am amateur German trader Y with a retail ECN account like MBT or whatever only $1000 in there. We both turn on our terminals at 7am for the Frankfurt session and wait to deploy our money.
Precisely which opportunities are available to you with "a lot of capital" that aren't available to me with my $1000? None. There is nowhere you could hit the offer that I couldn't, nowhere that you could hit the bid that I couldn't.
The market doesn't know about your capital base or mine. It doesn't care. You might have 400-500 times the amount that I do but you still have to deploy your capital to make a profit. If you want to make a profit you have to take the exact same risks that I would have to take. There is no guaranteed place (unless you are colluding with interbank dealers) where you could simply deploy your cash and another entity couldn't come along and negate your effect on supply/demand. The same non-guarantee exists for me.
So really, what is the difference between you X and me Y? Maybe my broker allows 100:1-400:1 leverage while yours only allows 50:1 for your account size, but that is it. If either of us wants to take home a pip at the end of the day, we both have to take the same risk with the same opportunities provided to us.
I like the 4 hourlys and above
Razor
all you need is a lot of capital to start with...........to still have something left after going thru the required losses
razorboy, let's say you are German prop desk trader X with "a lot of capital to start with". Let's say I am amateur German trader Y with a retail ECN account like MBT or whatever only $1000 in there. We both turn on our terminals at 7am for the Frankfurt session and wait to deploy our money.
Precisely which opportunities are available to you with "a lot of capital" that aren't available to me with my $1000? None. There is nowhere you could hit the offer that I couldn't, nowhere that you could hit the bid that I couldn't.
The market doesn't know about your capital base or mine. It doesn't care. You might have 400-500 times the amount that I do but you still have to deploy your capital to make a profit. If you want to make a profit you have to take the exact same risks that I would have to take. There is no guaranteed place (unless you are colluding with interbank dealers) where you could simply deploy your cash and another entity couldn't come along and negate your effect on supply/demand. The same non-guarantee exists for me.
So really, what is the difference between you X and me Y? Maybe my broker allows 100:1-400:1 leverage while yours only allows 50:1 for your account size, but that is it. If either of us wants to take home a pip at the end of the day, we both have to take the same risk with the same opportunities provided to us.
- #9,110
- Jan 7, 2010 6:44pm Jan 7, 2010 6:44pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts
Well, that was without a doubt the closest call I've had in months.
Usually if my SL is nearby, it will be hit. This time missed on G/U by 0.1 pips and E/U by a pip! Bring on the crappy broker fills
Still in the game, although this drawdown convinced me the year is not ready for big lots yet, so as soon as we came good I lightened my position by 90% on E/U and U/C back to my normal 0.5% "light" lotsize. I will save the heavies for Jan 15-18.
Still holding a few % on G/U short with conviction (even though it's the only one who hasn't paid yet still sitting at -10 pips), but have moved SL to this bars high. That's about as "inside" as I can handle.
Opening a long on U/J and I am done until FO/LO. See you then.
Usually if my SL is nearby, it will be hit. This time missed on G/U by 0.1 pips and E/U by a pip! Bring on the crappy broker fills
Still in the game, although this drawdown convinced me the year is not ready for big lots yet, so as soon as we came good I lightened my position by 90% on E/U and U/C back to my normal 0.5% "light" lotsize. I will save the heavies for Jan 15-18.
Still holding a few % on G/U short with conviction (even though it's the only one who hasn't paid yet still sitting at -10 pips), but have moved SL to this bars high. That's about as "inside" as I can handle.
Opening a long on U/J and I am done until FO/LO. See you then.
- #9,115
- Jan 9, 2010 5:20pm Jan 9, 2010 5:20pm
The intent of mentioning the amount of capital available was to infer that the trader with the smaller amount of capital may not be able to size properly to play a strategy like the Turtles. Additionally, the smaller player, with a small amount capital is more than likely going to have unrealistic expectations about the ease with which they will make moneyfrom the market, end up over sizing and blow their account - again, I am talking in generalities here, but as we were all beginners at some point, we can all probably remember the expectations we had coming in to this game.
of course the market doesnt care how much capital you have to play with. That is about as obvious as the nose on a person's face.
I made no mention of which opportunity was available to whom.
If I had to place a bet, I would bet on the likelihood that the smaller player has no clue about things like positive mathematical expectancy, pay off ratios, back testing, position sizing, probabilities or anything else that relates to being a successful trader. I am not saying that having a lot of capital guarantees this sort of knowledge when it comes to trading, im just playing the probabilities
But you are very wrong on the idea that a large player and a small player have the same opportunties. With larger size, you have more of an impact and can often move the market, sometimes the way you intended and sometimes in a way you didnt. Happens all the time in the stock market - just take a look at the level II quotes. Sometimes you can take out an entire price level with a 15,000 or 20,000 share block and drive it your way, sometimes there is someone sitting with a 100,000 share iceberg order going the other way that will eat you for lunch. Or sometimes your large size causes algo's to place or pull fake orders on a variety of ECN in a way that will either fake or hide levels of S/R. So yes, size does matter and sometimes obvious "bigness" is not always to your advantage.
of course the market doesnt care how much capital you have to play with. That is about as obvious as the nose on a person's face.
I made no mention of which opportunity was available to whom.
If I had to place a bet, I would bet on the likelihood that the smaller player has no clue about things like positive mathematical expectancy, pay off ratios, back testing, position sizing, probabilities or anything else that relates to being a successful trader. I am not saying that having a lot of capital guarantees this sort of knowledge when it comes to trading, im just playing the probabilities
But you are very wrong on the idea that a large player and a small player have the same opportunties. With larger size, you have more of an impact and can often move the market, sometimes the way you intended and sometimes in a way you didnt. Happens all the time in the stock market - just take a look at the level II quotes. Sometimes you can take out an entire price level with a 15,000 or 20,000 share block and drive it your way, sometimes there is someone sitting with a 100,000 share iceberg order going the other way that will eat you for lunch. Or sometimes your large size causes algo's to place or pull fake orders on a variety of ECN in a way that will either fake or hide levels of S/R. So yes, size does matter and sometimes obvious "bigness" is not always to your advantage.
gdb, in regards to taking "every setup" imagine if you were Peter Crown. He does not wake up at the Tokyo open and trade for 24 hours until the the next Tokyo open. Probably at best he catches the start of 1 or 2 sessions. Imagine all those traders working prop desks, all the forex dealers, the interbank market makers: they all hit the market at the open of their local session and turn off the terminal at the end. If you read the book as it seems you did, you should know the first element of a trading plan is "which markets to trade"....