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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #190,421
  • Jan 3, 2010 8:42am Jan 3, 2010 8:42am
Couple scenarios in my head on GU:

1. If the price reaches the upper blue TL : sell with ~20 pips SL and reverse.
2. If it doesn't reach the blue line: sell when the red TL is broken. Again ~20 pips SL and reverse.

Most optimistic scenario: both shorts.

Risk per trade no more than 1%.

TP ~ 1.6046 (DIV).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #190,422
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:34am Jan 3, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Mr.C
Couple scenarios in my head on GU:

1. If the price reaches the upper blue TL : sell with ~20 pips SL and reverse.
2. If it doesn't reach the blue line: sell when the red TL is broken. Again ~20 pips SL and reverse.

Most optimistic scenario: both shorts.

Risk per trade no more than 1%.

TP ~ 1.6046 (DIV).

Okay I really Give reply very few but 20pips is very Low SL in My Opinion For GU move more then 60 pips in a Minute and in tick 12pips .. so if you said 20pips SL you were be very Lucky guy to find right entry Every time , as there is So Fake OUT, And Some time on Double or Triple Top or Bottom .. Market Pair's Give 60 or 70 pips normal Move in Those Trend Analysis, but if you have en eyes on 1 minute an conclusion on tick size so may be that is going to be Good Entry for your 20pips SL, But I like the 20 pips SL to 106 pips TARGET.. indeed this is 1/5.3 ratio .. and that is good but for understanding 1% Rm , I know how to manage , Probability 5% of Your Target AC on GU is Going to be good if you find a right and on the Time Entry ..





let say you are in Two side



1.6040 entry ...

1.6020 sl
1.6046 tp
It should some Other way to find you SL with low And Right place 1/3 is also good expect 3/7 or your 1/5.3

cheer
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #190,423
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:46am Jan 3, 2010 9:46am
GBPUSD is above its monthly support 1, 1.6131 .... with a bearish wave h1, ... we would see a monthly decline to support 2, 1.5887 ... to start a new upload from there . News HPI negative for this pair and the manufacturing PMI, slightly bullish. Suffice expect to see corrections, makes this pair. For the differences in forecasts. The ADX, in Vedi, h1, h4 and d1, mark and found strong upward trend in bullish divergence in D1, H4, M15 and bearish divergences in w1, h1 and m30. We have a stochastic emerging from oversold levels D1, and found the average band BB. Having reached the WR2, I think it would make a downward correction to its monthly support 2. In h4, peaked in the downstream channel, but is returning on the rise, with a possible pullback. In w1, is supported at the lower end of bb, with a negative trend liner therefore deduce a correction to 1.5820 .....
  • #190,424
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:11am Jan 3, 2010 10:11am
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/03/news/economy/bernanke/
  • #190,425
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:20am Jan 3, 2010 10:20am
Interesting article on the Fundamentals of the Pound

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f73a56ea-f...44feab49a.html

Cheers
CB
  • #190,426
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:46am Jan 3, 2010 10:46am
Just my view...
since my first Trendline already broke, so im targetting this pair will move upwards from now on...
But anything still can happen...
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  • #190,427
  • Jan 3, 2010 1:33pm Jan 3, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting thetruthspy
Just my view...
since my first Trendline already broke, so im targetting this pair will move upwards from now on...
But anything still can happen...
i am expecting the pair to stay bearish, at least until we hit the 1.6107 support line. but also hoping to break it.
  • #190,428
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:07pm Jan 3, 2010 2:07pm
Cable just touched the .50 fib from the 2.0132 high to this mornings 9954 low after the bad data,

However I think USD is going to have a hard time breaking below last weeks 1.2001 low on swissy, plus just below that we have a TL from the Dec 2004 low as further support around 1.1988.

I'm looking to short cable on another failed 2.0040 test with stops above 2.0070 alternatively wait for the .618 @ 2.0063

Edit : Gone long at 2.0002 targeting 2.0060-2.0130 tight stop at 1.9984

Cable getting held down by EURGBP this afternoon. that pair now just testing the .786 also o/b on the hourlies, looking for that to pullback a bit to work the o/b off which should help cable higher assuming the USD doesn't do an about turn, Gold has pulled back quite a bit from the highs earlier but that just looks like an aversion to the $700 rather than a USD related move.

Equities still headed higher today despite the bad housing numbers, DJIA is really gunning for that 13,000 level but in my view there will be a lot of people taking some profit if/when we get there so it could pullback, any further deterioration in the US data tomorrow could be the start of a larger corretion in the indices, that in turn will cause further carry unwinds, just something to consider, bearing in mind the level of spec GBPJPY longs still out there which will have an effect on cable.
  • #190,429
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:15pm Jan 3, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting iqyusan
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/03/news/economy/bernanke/
Thanks bro
  • #190,430
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:46pm Jan 3, 2010 2:46pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Zh_HZf9E&pos=1
  • #190,431
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:48pm Jan 3, 2010 2:48pm
Whats is ur bias direction on gu today guys? i believe we r in process of forming head and shoulders pattern and gu moving down
  • #190,432
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:58pm Jan 3, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting bonus76
Whats is ur bias direction on gu today guys? i believe we r in process of forming head and shoulders pattern and gu moving down
I'm with you on your position. We may see a little consolidation and sideways movement before the downtrend continues.
  • #190,433
  • Jan 3, 2010 3:28pm Jan 3, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
Retrace Or Trend Revesal ?

Who can answer this question ?

I have my answer and will post it before Market opens.
Hello Everybody.
Numbers Never lie.

Monthly:
R3: 1.7528
R2: 1.7123
R1: 1.6640
Demark High: 1.6437
Pivot: 1.6235
S1: 1.5752
Demark low: 1.5549
S2: 1.5347
S3: 1.4864

Weekly:
R3: 1.6719
R2: 1.6477
Demark High: 1.6397
R1: 1.6316
Pivot: 1.6074
Demark low: 1.5994
S1: 1.5919
S2: 1.5671
S3: 1.5510
Daily:
R3: 1.6431
R2: 1.6333
Demark High: 1.6289
R1: 1.6244
Pivot: 1.6146
Demark low: 1.6102
S1: 1.6057
S2: 1.5959
S3: 1.5870
--------------------------------------------------------------------
ok, what's the next?
Warning
before you continue, (Everything could be right or could be wrong but time will tell).
Trend Weekly, Daily, H4, still Down.
H4 chart prove that we are at the top in the descending channel.
The price retraced to 38.2% fib level (1.6877-->1.5831) and 61.8% fib (1.6410 --> 1.5831) and closed under these levels and also under the UTL.
Recommends : Seek best sell signals in the area between 1.6244 & 1.6289 if we reached it.

Hope it will help.
happy trading.
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  • #190,434
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:01pm Jan 3, 2010 4:01pm
market is open

nice drop on GBP/USD

i just secured 75pips with a trailing stop ... sell people sell ... take it further down
  • #190,435
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:09pm Jan 3, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting thetruthspy
Just my view...
since my first Trendline already broke, so im targetting this pair will move upwards from now on...
But anything still can happen...
My guess is it'll fall a little more on your last, 3-pivot downtrend: 1, 2, 3.
  • #190,436
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:12pm Jan 3, 2010 4:12pm
i think the opportunity to sell passed me

i will wait breaking another strong area ..

be right back
THE CREATOR AND OWNER OF S.N.M "Serve no Master" Trading Stystem
  • #190,437
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:21pm Jan 3, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting hnosair
market is open

nice drop on GBP/USD

i just secured 75pips with a trailing stop ... sell people sell ... take it further down
i'm with a market maker...so i could sell shitloads would not impact price...lool...
  • #190,438
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:26pm Jan 3, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting matouwah
i'm with a market maker...so i could sell shitloads would not impact price...lool...
lol ... true. we dont matter.
  • #190,439
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:47pm Jan 3, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting hnosair
lol ... true. we dont matter.
was holding 4 shorts from 1.6203.....got rid of one lot...will hold the other 3 for now n see how it goes when i wake up.....

forgot to get rid of positions before markets closed on thursday....didnt hurt me...i'm lucky
  • #190,440
  • Jan 3, 2010 4:56pm Jan 3, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting matouwah
was holding 4 shorts from 1.6203.....got rid of one lot...will hold the other 3 for now n see how it goes when i wake up.....

forgot to get rid of positions before markets closed on thursday....didnt hurt me...i'm lucky
same here. i slept on thursday afternoon and forgot to close position.

my sl got hit. i need to re-enter market again. at least i got my 75pips.
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