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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #190,221
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:56pm Dec 30, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting Pipfull
And who really knows the basic reason off this strong movements of gdp?
why it got so strong toward other currencies?
because some group decided to gun it up, beginning yesterday with the selling climax. if there is no rate hike, you will only find senselss explanations on any of the news sites like: "there was a taliban jet flying towards big ben- but did not hit it- so analysts thought this is good for pound and the drop was reversed."
  • #190,222
  • Dec 30, 2009 2:58pm Dec 30, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting Pipfull
And who really knows the basic reason of this strong movements of gbp?
why it got so strong toward other currencies?
It is a retracement. If you want a reason well...the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears won in football so they have to lose in the Forex. There is the reason LOL.
  • #190,223
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:00pm Dec 30, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting Ctic
It is a retracement. If you want a reason well...the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears won in football so they have to lose in the Forex. There is the reason LOL.
http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums...nay-Arnold.jpg
  • #190,224
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:14pm Dec 30, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting Ctic
It is a retracement. If you want a reason well...the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears won in football so they have to lose in the Forex. There is the reason LOL.
It seems a sufficient reason.
There is no randomness. It is just Chaos, a higher form of order.
  • #190,225
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:17pm Dec 30, 2009 3:17pm
Just a quick note to Your loss.
I lost also , I took break for while, later I started to use more MM, divorce my wife..the best negativity and today doing fine...
Trnava
Quoting CzechTrade
also thank you for your reply
  • #190,226
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:17pm Dec 30, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting Ctic
It is a retracement. If you want a reason well...the Chicago Bears beat the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears won in football so they have to lose in the Forex. There is the reason LOL.
LOL, well that explains it! Well I understand its a retracement, im not disputing that a retracement was not due, infact I expected it at that price. To move 250 pips though as much as fast as it did and on low volume on a day where the dollar has been rallying against other currencies smells of something else. It went from a new low for the week to a set a new high for the week, without any resistance whatsoever on the way up.
  • #190,227
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:24pm Dec 30, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting Touchdown
LOL, well that explains it! Well I understand its a retracement, im not disputing that a retracement was not due, infact I expected it at that price. To move 250 pips though as much as fast as it did and on low volume on a day where the dollar has been rallying against other currencies smells of something else. It went from a new low for the week to a set a new high for the week, without any resistance whatsoever on the way up.
Plus the Bears have been losing all month in football, yet winning in the Forex. But seriously, it's due because it hit the 161.8 fib on the daily chart. Usually when it hits that fib it does bounce pretty high before it continues back down. Once the fibs are moved to the next candle this retracement will probably go to at least the 61.8, 50, or 38.2 fib. Could be a reversal but it is to soon to tell.
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  • #190,228
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:28pm Dec 30, 2009 3:28pm
Malcolmb,

I agree with you. Its like biting into an apple and having it taste like fish.

On a 15 min if you eliminate both the drop and rise, it fits into a channel that while increasing in value is not bullish.

Even if you include the drop, when viewed ("AT THIS TIME") inside a weekly channel. to the short side.

Take Care,
BR


Quoting malcolmb14
I find it very odd that we rocketed right into the upper value area of yesterday and stopped dead.

Not only that but the daily now looks like an engulfing even more misleading for those poor shorts and luring all the bulls in...YEAH HERE WE GO TO 1.6800 '...
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  • #190,229
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:35pm Dec 30, 2009 3:35pm
We had a perfect ABCD pattern on the daily chart, and the decline into it was a 5 wave pattern. Some big traders use patterns, and I guess that one of these guys set the ball in motion. Usually these single bars of this magnitude retrace, sometimes they even go below the start of the move. The fact that we got a good pattern into this move, indicates that the down move for the GBP is possibly over. I think a 600 point move is on the cards to the upside, but I would not enter a trade to buy now, I would look for the GBPUSD to retrace in a 3 wave structure

If it does that and retraces to .786 or .886 of this move up then you have a low risk entry to make a good trade. Ideally a .786 retrace is the one to favour, any more and it would make me think that we were still in a correction down.

I think that the Asian session will hammer this a little, with a decline tommorrow. I hope it retraces to 50% or more.


I might post my analysis up on my blog haranfx.com a little later after the new year.
  • #190,230
  • Dec 30, 2009 3:45pm Dec 30, 2009 3:45pm

Those educational experiences were not the waste you think. First they helped mold you into the person you are today. Those experiences helped make you ready for and capable of trying to trade forex. Those experiences have already been used by you and if your successful you will pull upon them again. Second, if you don't make it in the trading world and choose to want to do something else, you have the markers that might make it possible.

I went the other way, the way you wish you went. Was worth low eight figures on Monday, on Tuesday it was all gone. Thanks to a con now in prison.

Although experience comes from the investment of time and sometimes money and time it means squat in many fields one might find they want to work in. They want to see the calling card you have earned.

Come back in 25 years and tell me what a waste you think was


BR



Quoting Ctic
I wish I started this when I was 18. I didn't learn about this market until I was 24 and stared trading it at 26. And to think my Bachelor's is in Finance and Masters degree in Accounting. Worthless knowledge. I would rather have the $120,000 I spent on the two degree's and put it into the Forex.
  • #190,231
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:08pm Dec 30, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting Big1red9

Those educational experiences were not the waste you think. First they helped mold you into the person you are today. Those experiences helped make you ready for and capable of trying to trade forex. Those experiences have already been used by you and if your successful you will pull upon them again. Second, if you don't make it in the trading world and choose to want to do something else, you have the markers that might make it possible.

I went the other way, the way you wish you went. Was worth low eight figures on Monday, on Tuesday...
Br,

That is true, those were good experiences and the education does help with my business. It has shaped me into the person I am today, and I am thankful. I would not trade the education away for anything. I will tell you this in 25 years I'm sure I will still be glad of the experiences I had. I sold my elevator company and started my investment company so I hope I can make it trading. I have made it this far (6 years about) so hopefully it would continue. BTW my screenname Ctic (Chicago Trading & Investment Company) tax shelter so I don't have to claim capital gains. My accounting degree and CPA does help me out with that aspect of everything, Plus I do work 4 months a year doing taxes I just wish I had the 120K starting out so I didn't have to do things the hard way, but hey that's life right!!
  • #190,232
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:10pm Dec 30, 2009 4:10pm
The impact was in a number of currencies. Hmmmmm



Now I wish I didn't look.
BR

Quoting Big1red9
Malcolmb,

I agree with you. Its like biting into an apple and having it taste like fish.

On a 15 min if you eliminate both the drop and rise, it fits into a channel that while increasing in value is not bullish.

Even if you include the drop, when viewed ("AT THIS TIME") inside a weekly channel. to the short side.

Take Care,
BR
  • #190,233
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:12pm Dec 30, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting fxsignal
... Ideally a .786 retrace is the one to favour, any more and it would make me think that we were still in a correction down.

I think that the Asian session will hammer this a little, with a decline tommorrow. I hope it retraces to 50% or more.

I might post my analysis up on my blog haranfx.com a little later after the new year.
Hi Fxsignal,

There won't be an Asian session.

Just a thought....

Happy New Year to everyone
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  • #190,234
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:13pm Dec 30, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting Big1red9
The impact was in a number of currencies. Hmmmmm



Now I wish I didn't look.
BR
TIME FOR !
Inserted Video
  • #190,235
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:14pm Dec 30, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
I'm outing now see you next year @1.64
remeber, my long entry @1.5870 TP 1.67 SL 1.56
exited @1.6080 with +210 pip.----->24 Hours trade lol.
waiting to know what in their heads.
  • #190,236
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:17pm Dec 30, 2009 4:17pm


Ctic,

That sounds so much better!! Like the educated man you are!! I agree, that is a lot of money for a youngster in school to spend.. wondering...how am I going too.....?

How is it that by getting rid of the cap gains your better off? That is a more favorable rate....no?

Thanks
BR

Quoting Ctic
Br,

That is true, those were good experiences and the education does help with my business. It has shaped me into the person I am today, and I am thankful. I would not trade the education away for anything. I will tell you this in 25 years I'm sure I will still be glad of the experiences I had. I sold my elevator company and started my investment company so I hope I can make it trading. I have made it this far (6 years about) so hopefully it would continue. BTW my screenname Ctic (Chicago Trading & Investment Company) tax shelter so...
  • #190,237
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:34pm Dec 30, 2009 4:34pm
hey guys,
wish u best of pips for the next year!

here are some pretty interesting bloomberg-news vids from youtube today:

"Bay Crest's Bendixen Sees Dollar Rising Above 2008 Highs"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nmCvqAdRJc"]

"Wesbury Says Stock Market `Significantly Undervalued"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGjvQetUGq4

"Dingmann Sees Number of Factors Pushing Oil Above $80"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqKOyHrrpjI

"Oil-Dollar Negative Correlation Could See End in 2010"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=159l5O8nP48

cya in 2010
  • #190,238
  • Dec 30, 2009 4:56pm Dec 30, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting Big1red9


Ctic,

That sounds so much better!! Like the educated man you are!! I agree, that is a lot of money for a youngster in school to spend.. wondering...how am I going too.....?

How is it that by getting rid of the cap gains your better off? That is a more favorable rate....no?

Thanks
BR
It depends, but in this situation no. Since all my trades are short term, held for less than 1 year, they are short term capital gains which are taxed at a higher rate. In addition no writeoff can be taken. Now being classified as a trader, I can write off expenses related to the business (rent, electric, new computers, internet costs, screens, etc.) thus lowering the amount of profit I receive. It is conceivable that I make a good profit trading forex but break even or take a loss for the year tax wise. (This is the short answer, not everything is covered here).
  • #190,239
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:22pm Dec 30, 2009 5:22pm
bullish flag 1h
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #190,240
  • Dec 30, 2009 5:41pm Dec 30, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
exited @1.6080 with +210 pip.----->24 Hours trade lol.
waiting to know what in their heads.
nice trading BUT you have to be correct 70% of time to make any money

your original stop loss was more than your take profit.

most traders will have 50 / 50 , the better traders like me (lol) about 75% , and then there are the BSers that have 100 % of wins and no losses.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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Aman7