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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #190,161
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:30am Dec 30, 2009 11:30am
G/u is not through with short's, its coming down some good pips, i announced yesterday g/u would be fantastic 5, guys look out in next couple of minute's and hours where g/u would be......... Gush
  • #190,162
  • Edited 11:45am Dec 30, 2009 11:39am | Edited 11:45am
Maybe the pros took laptops this year or some remained at the shop?

On the one had the volume is much lower - on the other retail doesn't have nerve to pull off yesterday and today.

At this moment, looking at weekly bars, it is clear the downtrend is still in place. So I would still be looking for a short play, once it was clear the momentum was gone.

Today's move recaptured yesterdays - seeing this so far as a retracement - not reversal.

I would suspect that if we are heading into a trend reversal, we will go sideways (200 to 300 pip spread / range) for a few weeks and will look out for it.

I saw what I thought was a bull wedge forming on a 5 and 15 minute chart. We were getting close to longer term support. That fed my gut and I closed the majority of my shorts yesterday.

A bit to much luck for my taste. That tells me that I need to....

1. Modify my exit.
2. Increase my trading frequency.

A couple of goals for next year.

Take Care,
BR
  • #190,163
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:41am Dec 30, 2009 11:41am
nice post

REd gu bulls have to give me a break ... ftse down .75% and gu ripping . Why do I smell a big fat trap


Quoting Big1red9
Maybe the pros took laptops this year or some remained at the shop?

On the one had the volume is much lower - on the other retail doesn't have nerve to pull off yesterday and today.

At this moment, looking at weekly bars, it is clear the downtrend is still in place. So I would still be looking for a short play, once it was clear the momentum was gone.

Today's move recaptured yesterdays - seeing this so far as a retracement - not reversal.

I would suspect that if we are heading into a trend reversal, we will go sideways (200 to 300 pip spread...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,164
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:43am Dec 30, 2009 11:43am
Shorted at 1.6060, stopped out for 35 pips. Back in again at 1.6082. GBP/EUR starting to pull back also. I'm hoping we get a good retrace on this mad move
  • #190,165
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:46am Dec 30, 2009 11:46am
Quoting malcolmb14
nice post

REd gu bulls have to give me a break ... ftse down .75% and gu ripping . Why do I smell a big fat trap
Ewok posted something in the Aus thread about a bomb scare in Times Square. False alarm. If this is the cause of the move, expect a significant retracement.

Shorted GU at 6085.

Just on Sky News now, Nasdaq building evacuated in NY.
  • #190,166
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:46am Dec 30, 2009 11:46am
i have noticed a disconnect between prices & news.

my hypothisis is that the big banks are waiting for smaller banks, funds and traders to take positions then jump in the opposite direction for a fast pay day, then ride it back to where the prices should be.

i am not trading until jan as the markets are too thin & easy to manipulate.

best wishes to all.
  • #190,167
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:48am Dec 30, 2009 11:48am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Ewok posted something in the Aus thread about a bomb scare in Times Square. False alarm. If this is the cause of the move, expect a significant retracement.

Shorted GU at 6085.

Just on Sky News now, Nasdaq building evacuated in NY.

bomb scare would cause usd to get stronger as market tanks .... that is not it
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #190,168
  • Dec 30, 2009 11:49am Dec 30, 2009 11:49am
Quoting malcolmb14
eg .. you slow...lol

did 120 down eu and 100 down gu on that chart.

is now weakness at 78.5 and resistance ...

support 78 .

this could be the retracements we were looking for gu and eu

also note THIS IS EFFECTIVELY LAST TRADING DAY OF YEAR SO CRAZY THINGS CAN HAPPENS
My view:
1-We will go under 78
2-I have enough patient and plan if you remember w2 we talked about it
3-DX wil go lower and e/u - g/u up for while to retrace
As long as i know where i will enter and have backup plan i feel ok
  • #190,169
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:10pm Dec 30, 2009 12:10pm
Malcolmb,

Thank you. I try (at times hard) to remember this subtle difference...
Being right to be successful is different than being successful to show I am right. For me, I can only learn when I expose my failures and my weakness - first to myself.

It is possible to have that which should be correlated to not be for periods of time. That on its own is a trade. I do not have the skill to use them as confirmation of a trade. Might keep me out of one, but not get in one.

If I was inclined (but I am not) I would look at this short trade as one that has a number of positions. So instead of going short 100% now, I would go 25% and if it moves up, average my short price to a trade plan covering the insanity of the moment.

In that way, I don't have to guess if this is the top of the trap or not.

I am hoping next year to be one that VSA adds to my trading precision. I am grateful for the time you have taken so far and hope you can continue to share and teach what I think is something quite significant.

Take care,
BR

Quoting malcolmb14
nice post

REd gu bulls have to give me a break ... ftse down .75% and gu ripping . Why do I smell a big fat trap
  • #190,170
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:12pm Dec 30, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting egkid
Hello mal
How r u bro
4H DX let's see where this 4h close i think Down, I just waiting to see it inside the cloud
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post3330619
Update, 4H double top And inside the cloud Meaning (Bearish)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #190,171
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:13pm Dec 30, 2009 12:13pm
So adding to everything else... I need to wear a helmet and flack jacket to trade?

If thats true, it is going to mess a lot of people up. What a great move for a manipulator.

TY


Quoting ukdaytrader
Ewok posted something in the Aus thread about a bomb scare in Times Square. False alarm. If this is the cause of the move, expect a significant retracement.

Shorted GU at 6085.

Just on Sky News now, Nasdaq building evacuated in NY.
  • #190,172
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:16pm Dec 30, 2009 12:16pm
res 1.6050 is broken look for the next one 1.6165 to test
  • #190,173
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:17pm Dec 30, 2009 12:17pm
hi guys whats new ?
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  • #190,174
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:18pm Dec 30, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting nawafasad1
res 1.6050 is broken look for the next one 1.6165 to test
We will
  • #190,175
  • Edited 12:31pm Dec 30, 2009 12:22pm | Edited 12:31pm
Don't think the "suspect" Van in Times Square was the reason. The move started well ahead news about the van was broadcast. I wonder if there's any piece of news to be released later from the BOE or other officials that will explain the move. Or if it's just going to be faded

Another hint this has nothing to do with the bomb scare - GBP gained against all currencies at once....

Anyway, I was a seller at 1.6080 looking to fade this (hopefully) failed breakout
  • #190,176
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:30pm Dec 30, 2009 12:30pm
Bulls seem to be fed for today. A possibility for bears to get 5990
  • #190,177
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:37pm Dec 30, 2009 12:37pm
In the formation of a cup and handle pattern does anybody know what the relationship between the cup and handle is regarding duration?

i/e The current formation on eu/gbp took 30 weeks for the cup to form and the handle has been ranging around for 11 weeks now.

Knowledgable remarks plz..
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #190,178
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:44pm Dec 30, 2009 12:44pm
Building shorts for 5750 level.
Position will be invalid if price close above the utl resistance.
Good luck & happy new year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thank You
  • #190,179
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:49pm Dec 30, 2009 12:49pm
Quoting wormboy
Building shorts for 5750 level.
Position will be invalid if price close above the utl resistance.
Good luck & happy new year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp daily letest.gif Size: 23 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #190,180
  • Dec 30, 2009 12:50pm Dec 30, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting wormboy
Building shorts for 5750 level.
Position will be invalid if price close above the utl resistance.
Good luck & happy new year
GL bro
For me Still flat to sell from good point
PS; i think you will be right if we close under 1.6020 but i don't think so
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