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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #189,581
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:35am Dec 28, 2009 8:35am
My 4h chart attached, daily chart (wich is totally different) by the way is still pointing up since last week as it did on EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,582
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:43am Dec 28, 2009 8:43am
Quoting malcolmb14
did you even bother looking at your 4 hour chart ? i am not sure where you get direction is up from ... do not get married to this as it may bite you in the butt.

right now we are ranging 6020 to 15920 with the prevailing trend is down

I thought you were a better a trader than making way out there comments, I also thought you had a grasp of vsa,,,those sellers at 6020 may cap this for now.

I agree a retracement may be due but reality is the charts do not show one at this time. There is no volume in the market and price could go sideways...

IF we were under normal trading, I would go with normal trading rules...so looking at the H4 chart, I see that support has slipped under current trading range...Green line H4 chart.

BUT...

I also see we have some resistance to crush through on the M30 before moving on, as well as a possible target range created by the 500SMA on the 15m....

Depending on your length of position, it may not be all out bull market, but is it really time to go to the bears?

Support on the 4Hr sits at about 1.5965, given the ranging market, I would see if we hold this support on the H4(for long position), and of course watch for a possible better sell range on the shorter timeframes on failure of breach and hold of the 15m/30m resistance.

A look from the sidelines, as I still ain't touching my account until the bells of the new year chime!

Hope your Christmas was Merry Malc.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: m30.GIF Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: m15.GIF Size: 35 KB
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  • #189,583
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:43am Dec 28, 2009 8:43am
i do agree with Malc., obviously there is a strong resistance built up around 1.6000 (look at the 4 hour chart). Moreover, if you look at daily chart we have a not that strong support just 40-50 pips bellow the current price. Cable will drop like a stone if we break it.
The monthly chart shows a good sideway price action, eventually we may see the uptrend late march.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd,h4.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #189,584
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:50am Dec 28, 2009 8:50am
Looks like Gbp/Usd is going south! let us see it can touch 1.5920 again or not.
Dancing with Candlesticks
  • #189,585
  • Dec 28, 2009 8:54am Dec 28, 2009 8:54am
Ok one question malcomb.
You said an up move with low volume is likely to come down, but markets can move however down on low volume. So i suppose rising volume on up candle is up signal right?
What i see in this chart is up candles on rising volume, so up right?

What i don't like about tick volume it's the fact that is based on the certain tick volume based on a certain candle, not the overall money flow, switch to a different chart and it's likely to have a different view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,586
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:02am Dec 28, 2009 9:02am
Quoting TheGabriel
I'm not trading VSA malcomb, the indicator it's not even in my chart anymore.
I never marry a trade in fact what I'm seeing on my 4H are up candles and up indicators, i think those married are the sellers but it might payoff aswell. Lets wait and see if hits my up target or breaks the low, different traders different views, different mm, arguing is kinda useless.
sorry re- read my post and edited it .. it sounded rough . Just watch that channel.

I know you were getting into vsa. Throw up a 1 hour and look at that pin at 6020 just before xmas . That is your supply zone and every time price gets there it seems to get hammered by sellers.

VSA is not an indicator ... the better volume just helps one see odd things going on in volume. VSA is about understanding the relationship between candles and volumes and what they mean , what has transpired on the left hand side of the chart. What has happened hours ago can effect what is playing out now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #189,587
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:14am Dec 28, 2009 9:14am
Quoting iForex
Looks like Gbp/Usd is going south! let us see it can touch 1.5920 again or not.
what is this market? looks like it is going north again! I think the market is mad and crazy
Dancing with Candlesticks
  • #189,588
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:14am Dec 28, 2009 9:14am
Quoting TheGabriel
Ok one question malcomb.
You said an up move with low volume is likely to come down, but markets can move however down on low volume. So i suppose rising volume on up candle is up signal right?
What i see in this chart is up candles on rising volume, so up right?

What i don't like about tick volume it's the fact that is based on the certain tick volume based on a certain candle, not the overall money flow, switch to a different chart and it's likely to have a different view.
It is not that simple .... but I understand the question

markets can drop under low volume . It could just mean that the pros are not willing to support the price or if they are buyers .. feel that price will drop further where they can buy at discount

Market up move cannot be sustained on low vol , and if they are it is times like this when pros will manipulate price higher under low vol conditions just to sell at higher prices once the real volume comes back to market ( this is what i think is going on with eu right now)

we can see up move on high volume , as long as the candles are constant , and not ultra wide or ultra narrow . Also on any high volume up candle we have to see reaction

sometime , as now , there are very mixed signals going on due to abnormal market conditions . This is why I am staying out till next week. One way of making money is by not trading at all in a high risk environment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #189,589
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:18am Dec 28, 2009 9:18am
Quoting iForex
what is this market? looks like it is going north again! I think the market is mad and crazy
welcome to your first year end. stay away from the market till the second week of january my friend. trying to trade under this condition is foolish.
happy new year
Thank You
  • #189,590
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:24am Dec 28, 2009 9:24am
Quoting TheGabriel
Ok one question malcomb.
You said an up move with low volume is likely to come down, but markets can move however down on low volume. So i suppose rising volume on up candle is up signal right?
What i see in this chart is up candles on rising volume, so up right?

What i don't like about tick volume it's the fact that is based on the certain tick volume based on a certain candle, not the overall money flow, switch to a different chart and it's likely to have a different view.
markets tend to fall off on declining volume. if the volume on upbars gets to excessive whilst the spread tightens, it is an indication of someone unloading. a healthy volume increase indicates sutained upmoves but not sudden +20% higher amounts of volume.

tick volume is pretty awesome. big orders produce more ticks, there is absolutely no possiblity that this does not happen since big orders eat up the bid/ask to get filled. so there is no problem in ticks, just the mt4 tick vol is a thing i do not really like since the source is only one brokerage and some tend to filter ticks. e.g. there is a big difference if you have 1 tick like "[email protected]" or 3 ticks "[email protected]", "[email protected]", "[email protected]"
  • #189,591
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:25am Dec 28, 2009 9:25am
Quoting wormboy
welcome to your first year end. stay away from the market till the second week of january my friend. trying to trade under this condition is foolish.
happy new year
welcome back Mr wormboy.
  • #189,592
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:28am Dec 28, 2009 9:28am
It seems like, Gu is making a Downward Wedge, if this wedge gets broken, then the price will collapse to 1.5920 levels
  • #189,593
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:31am Dec 28, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Baby-Trader
welcome back Mr wormboy.
Hello BT how's it going
Thank You
  • #189,594
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:32am Dec 28, 2009 9:32am
Quoting malcolmb14
It is not that simple .... but I understand the question

markets can drop under low volume . It could just mean that the pros are not willing to support the price or if they are buyers .. feel that price will drop further where they can buy at discount

Market up move cannot be sustained on low vol...
Yes past tick volume can help reading actual tick volume so predict the market, but take a look at 5m chart.

The down move that tested the low was fast and very easy to understand, but right now 5m chart is following an up trendline and we could even go into a triangle wich we'll have to wait to break...so the past selling at top range looks quite different from what's happening now imo.
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"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,595
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:41am Dec 28, 2009 9:41am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
markets tend to fall off on declining volume. if the volume on upbars gets to excessive whilst the spread tightens, it is an indication of someone unloading. a healthy volume increase indicates sutained upmoves but not sudden +20% higher amounts of volume.

tick volume is pretty awesome. big orders produce more ticks, there is absolutely no possiblity that this does not happen since big orders eat up the bid/ask to get filled. so there is no problem in ticks, just the mt4 tick vol is a thing i do not really like since the source is only one...
Your post makes sense and i agree on all the points including small spread + big volume = possible turn, because is something i've found to be true when i was giving a look at vsa. However from a VSA point this up move has nothing "strange" to me, vol rising very smoothly wich is different from the top on the 24th wich had very high vol on low spread, so from a point i understand malc's point about not trading during this conditions but on the other hand I don't understand why he sees it very bearish and thinks my call is all wrong.
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,596
  • Dec 28, 2009 9:42am Dec 28, 2009 9:42am
Quoting wormboy
welcome to your first year end. stay away from the market till the second week of january my friend. trying to trade under this condition is foolish.
happy new year
Thanks for your advise! Happy new year!
Dancing with Candlesticks
  • #189,597
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:01am Dec 28, 2009 10:01am
This was an excellent explanation Malcolm, thank you. Keep these coming if possible!

Quoting malcolmb14
It is not that simple .... but I understand the question

markets can drop under low volume . It could just mean that the pros are not willing to support the price or if they are buyers .. feel that price will drop further where they can buy at discount

Market up move cannot be sustained on low vol...
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #189,598
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:02am Dec 28, 2009 10:02am
I've just closed my order at 1.59996 for +5 pips after high vol low spread bar on m15, I'm still watching for buys but i want them safer.

I've just added back the bettervolume indicator wich I'll use for finding tops and fake breakouts while i play my technical setup.

Ty Dr G for the vsa post , I'll make some practice on VSA aswell and use it as filter for my signals. It takes time to trade vsa i think but it's worth learning.
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,599
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:15am Dec 28, 2009 10:15am
Thanks malc you are pro im going to stay out and wait for good moment
  • #189,600
  • Dec 28, 2009 10:24am Dec 28, 2009 10:24am
Still having a tuff time closing above the 200EMA on the 30 and the 500SMA on the 15....

Support on the hourly held for the last dip, but positive strength seems to be weakening.

Still wouldn't say we bearish yet, but any bull positions should be watched closely....close above the 2 resistance areas for further topside movement, but again, weak volume due to the holidays, I would expect this to be getting close to the topside range of play.
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