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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #189,401
  • Dec 24, 2009 12:27pm Dec 24, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting Big1red9
The bots that I spoke with you about do not care about or look at trends. They not only take advantage of pricing issues, they help cause them. But we are dealing with firms that can spend 100 million on a project like this, and see it a worthwhile investment(not saying what they spent - just that they could).
BR
A bot that makes a 50% return/day could take over the world.
  • #189,402
  • Dec 24, 2009 12:37pm Dec 24, 2009 12:37pm
Malcolmb,

Thank you.

I hope going forward I am able to learn much from you. I know intuitively and can see factually the value of your expertise.

Happy Holidays,
BR

Quoting malcolmb14
Nice post ..... and one that all traders of every level could learn from
  • #189,403
  • Dec 24, 2009 12:42pm Dec 24, 2009 12:42pm
Thank you Jeff,

Happy Holidays to you!


[quote=TerpFan2;3326283]
Quoting Big1red9
I have been trading for more than 20 years on a professional level. My result have been audited and published. That does not mean I am perfect, know all or seen everything. But it does mean that I have a lot of experience, made more mistakes than most and have taken 6 figure hits.

"DittO" ... -minus the 20 year's experiance!
Several Years for me, just makes you confident of keeping
the fact it's those burnt hands, fingers, limbs, conscience
That Leave such an indellible pain, You Have Got to trade correct.
-Not...
  • #189,404
  • Dec 24, 2009 12:50pm Dec 24, 2009 12:50pm
I will be fair and share...

You can have all the short players. I will take all the long ones. We can donate the profits form those going both long and short.

Quoting malcolmb14
lol if you get any takers on this let me know .....next year i will join the mupet show and try the same. Lol funny.....
  • #189,405
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:01pm Dec 24, 2009 1:01pm
Those high speed bots make fractions of fractions of percents. They just do millions of trades.


Quoting Clouds
A bot that makes a 50% return/day could take over the world.
  • #189,406
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:22pm Dec 24, 2009 1:22pm
I am looking at the bottom for the GBPUSD to be in. As posted earlier, I got a perfect bounce at 1.59300 on my predicted turn point in time. Using these turns I pushed a $200 account to $2000 in 12 trading days. Once you have an idea where the bottom or top is, you have a lot more confidence to trade in one direction and hold your trades, something a lot of traders when they start don't do.

Retails sales in the UK went ballistic today, the information was released a little late, so it got no reaction in the market. I don't think this will be the case when the markets reopen after Christmas. My next turn in time is the 3.1.2010, so if the GBP starts rising when the markets reopen, I would try to hold my trade until the 3rd. As this market unfolds, the wave pattern will often give you the exact termination point, as you know the day to expect the turn, you can virtually zero in on the top, which is where I will be reversing my trade to catch the move down. I am hoping for a retrace to the .886 level on the last swing down on the daily, but I will use the 4H and 1H charts to clarrify the level in more detail as the wave progresses.

I post these on my blog haranfx.com , its free and I don't charge for anything. You can see that I have called the tops and bottoms on the GBPUSD to within 20 points and on the EURUSD. I am not always right but, I think that with the correct money management, even a small account can grow 1000% in 10-15 days. I know it can because I have done it with real money. You do also need the right markets, thats a must.

Please see the chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: saw wave pattern gbpusd.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #189,407
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:25pm Dec 24, 2009 1:25pm
triple bottom on daily chart or ledge?
  • #189,408
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:32pm Dec 24, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting Big1red9
Those high speed bots make fractions of fractions of percents. They just do millions of trades.
I have some EAs that make a lot of trades and can turn 50k to 5milions with 2 pairs in 1-2 months...but you need a spread of max 1 pip fixed and a broker that let's you scalp 2-3 pips.

I you can find a broker that let's you scalp and has fixed spread 1 pip on EURGBP I could make you so rich you'll be disgusted, and the price feed must not be smoothed (bastards).
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,409
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:39pm Dec 24, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting Big1red9
Hi Magix,

First your right. I should have said, I am making a generalized comment that directed to most not all. I want you to know I asked the wife to spank me!

No Argument that one can make money off of smaller TF's..........
BR
How refreshing. Well done Big1. At last a valid recognision that we do not all play the same time frames and somebodys call for a position may only be valid for a few minutes and good money to be made. Others call for the next week/month and a move of 200 pips in the wrong direction is not a concern, not when your looking for a couple of thousand in your chosen direction!

I often think the silly arguments on this forum are due in part to people not understanding the other persons time frame point of view.
This space intentionally left blank.
  • #189,410
  • Dec 24, 2009 1:44pm Dec 24, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting fxsignal
I am looking at the bottom for the GBPUSD to be in. As posted earlier, I got a perfect bounce at 1.59300 on my predicted turn point in time. Using these turns I pushed a $200 account to $2000 in 12 trading days. Once you have an idea where the bottom or top is, you have a lot more confidence to trade in one direction and hold your trades, something a lot of traders when they start don't do.
you presume this is the bottom, there could be some more downside to come.

Besides most of the "news" is factored in already......... and if not, just a spike then and return to the trend....
  • #189,411
  • Dec 24, 2009 2:18pm Dec 24, 2009 2:18pm
I promise, spreads are the beginning. The list of issues do not end. Slippage, partial fills, re-quotes, order cancellation, delays in data coming and orders going, Internet drops and that is before you deal with the software bugs, hardware failing and intentional crapola. I went so far (in equities) to become an exchange member, create a BD and trade directly with a clearing house. Still had issues. I gave it 3 shots and failed. Not worth it to me.

However I think I can get into place a 1/2 pip spread on EG. Have to check on the scalping - but think that could be worked out.

Let me know!
BR




Quoting TheGabriel
I have some EAs that make a lot of trades and can turn 50k to 5milions with 2 pairs in 1-2 months...but you need a spread of max 1 pip fixed and a broker that let's you scalp 2-3 pips.

I you can find a broker that let's you scalp and has fixed spread 1 pip on EURGBP I could make you so rich you'll be disgusted, and the price feed must not be smoothed (bastards).
  • #189,412
  • Dec 24, 2009 2:37pm Dec 24, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Big1red9
I promise, spreads are the beginning. The list of issues do not end. Slippage, partial fills, re-quotes, order cancellation, delays in data coming and orders going, Internet drops and that is before you deal with the software bugs, hardware failing and intentional crapola. I went so far (in equities) to become an exchange member, create a BD and trade directly with a clearing house. Still had issues. I gave it 3 shots and failed. Not worth it to me.

However I think I can get into place a 1/2 pip spread on EG. Have to check on the scalping - but...
If you can get that spread it would be quite impressive, 1,5 fixed is very good.
Yes, re-quotes and all the failures are a big issue aswell, but if the broker allows us to trade with 1,5 spread and scalp I don't think they'll requote the price. Basically the broker should not have a dealing desk that trades against us and they should just get profits from spread or commission wich is very difficult as 1,5 pips fixed on EG is a minimal spread.

If you think you really can provide a platform even for a demo that has 1,5 pips spread on EG let me know and i'll let the robot grow the account. The only broker i know 1 pip spread fixed does not allow scalping and is actually a scam .
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,413
  • Dec 24, 2009 2:48pm Dec 24, 2009 2:48pm
i cant believe u guys are still trading..i hope it going well..

anyways merry xmas and happy new year to u all

have a great one
  • #189,414
  • Dec 24, 2009 2:49pm Dec 24, 2009 2:49pm
gabriel where u gonna put positions ?
  • #189,415
  • Dec 24, 2009 3:05pm Dec 24, 2009 3:05pm
Merry Christmas to all you guys
  • #189,416
  • Dec 24, 2009 3:12pm Dec 24, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting dil
gabriel where u gonna put positions ?
Not trading, closed all my positions. My broker is already closed. I'll be back on the 28th. But if i see it's just in range i won't trade it.
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #189,417
  • Dec 24, 2009 3:57pm Dec 24, 2009 3:57pm
IMO 1.5644 is the final low for this down move.
  • #189,418
  • Dec 24, 2009 4:08pm Dec 24, 2009 4:08pm
I know for sure its not fixed....but I also know that it will be at half a pip almost all the time. I need to speak with my contacts when they return from holiday.

What is the average trade profit - to contend with the "other" factors?
Does the concept operate off the close or a stop? Tick or minute?

If trades are from a stop, history will mean little and you can only test forward. While it is possible the various platforms have changed significantly in the area of bar creation, I think it unlikely. The issue is that the bars are not made up of ticks and or of ticks in the order received. Therefore price will trigger a stop order live differently than historically. In some cases actual trades that would have taken place live, will not take place in history. In every case if a trade is missing in history - the missing historic trade would have been a loser live.

If trade is on the close, while price can change around a bit the concepts history will have a much greater value. Especially if there are few parameters that are optimized for TF or pair. Re-optimizing over and over kills the value of the idea because the result is being curve fit to data. To prove that out, you need to run out of sample data tests. To solve the problem you need to create self optimization parameters in the strategy so that it can change with conditions.

BR


Quoting TheGabriel
If you can get that spread it would be quite impressive, 1,5 fixed is very good.
Yes, re-quotes and all the failures are a big issue aswell, but if the broker allows us to trade with 1,5 spread and scalp I don't think they'll requote the price. Basically the broker should not have a dealing desk that trades against us and they should just get profits from spread or commission wich is very difficult as 1,5 pips fixed on EG is a minimal spread.

If you think you really can provide a platform even for a demo that has 1,5 pips spread on EG let me know...
  • #189,419
  • Dec 24, 2009 4:12pm Dec 24, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting Baby-Trader
IMO 1.5644 is the final low for this down move.
what u mean ? that we wont see 61 ?
  • #189,420
  • Dec 24, 2009 4:20pm Dec 24, 2009 4:20pm
I think the cable has more to go on the downside. The last major low was at 157, IMO, I do not think any rally will attract big money until that level has been hammered and tested.

Doesn't mean I won't buy at all, I just won't expect a breakout move up from the current range of 168-157 till 157 support has been tried again. If I threw another 2 cents in I'd suggest we stand a better chance running the lows within 4 months (138) than breaking 168.
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