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AUD/USD

  • #12,141
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:00am Dec 22, 2009 9:00am
again the market is confussed like yesterday when the gold is going down and the equities opens high
lets see whos gonna follow the other ,, s&p 500 or the gold , if they both find the same direction then it ll push the AUD in its way
  • #12,142
  • Dec 22, 2009 9:20am Dec 22, 2009 9:20am
Quoting Jesus4748
again the market is confussed like yesterday when the gold is going down and the equities opens high
lets see whos gonna follow the other ,, s&p 500 or the gold , if they both find the same direction then it ll push the AUD in its way
Dow Jones Down <-> Usdx Up
Dow Jones Up <-> Usdx Up


The perception is that the economy is in recovery mode .. this will push gold down (that move to 1200 was complete bs anyway..I would not be suprised to see gold back to 800 level by march next year).

Now if DJ tanks , chances are gold and usd can go up hand in hand as all money is moved out of equities , gold is used as a hedge against inflation or risk aversion
rat
  • #12,143
  • Dec 22, 2009 10:02am Dec 22, 2009 10:02am
Quoting rattyo
Dow Jones Down <-> Usdx Up
Dow Jones Up <-> Usdx Up


The perception is that the economy is in recovery mode .. this will push gold down (that move to 1200 was complete bs anyway..I would not be suprised to see gold back to 800 level by march next year).

Now if DJ tanks , chances are gold and usd can go up hand in hand as all money is moved out of equities , gold is used as a hedge against inflation or risk aversion
Hi rattyo, using gold as a hedge against inflation is an obsolete use ,Gold went up from 700 to 1200 in one year and the only thing that happened during that time was a deflation not inflation.the one who say that just look at price of gold during inflation periods in 1970's and 80's which is not apply in the recent situation.
  • #12,144
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:03pm Dec 22, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Keep shorting that sucker but be alert as news are just around the corner...
Hi Daytrader,

fairly new at this, what news are u talking about?

Been following this thread for about a month now and wow, what a learning curve I have been on and looks will be on for a long time. Want to thank all of you who are active in this thread and hopefully one day I may be able to contribute some good stuff as well.

cheers
  • #12,145
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:14pm Dec 22, 2009 3:14pm
I'm liking the participation and info/idea exchange that you have going here on the AUD thread.

Q: Seems like AUD/USD trends pretty nicely relative to other pairs.

(Dis)Agree?

Any idea why?


All the best and wishing us all a great new year!
Brent

http://www.mysmiley.net/imgs/smile/party/party0041.gif
  • #12,146
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:16pm Dec 22, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting shoeysfish
Hi Daytrader,

fairly new at this, what news are u talking about?

Been following this thread for about a month now and wow, what a learning curve I have been on and looks will be on for a long time. Want to thank all of you who are active in this thread and hopefully one day I may be able to contribute some good stuff as well.

cheers
Welcome to FF shoeysfish and welcome to the AUD/USD thread.
The news I was talking about was the GDP final Q3 for the US which was already announced at 12:30am Sydney time this morning, the Aud spiked a little after the news but then continued it's downtrend yet again.
  • #12,147
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:23pm Dec 22, 2009 3:23pm
I have a short position on aud/jpy from 79.83
what do u think?is it worthy to keep it till it retraces and reaches 79.83 or u think the movements will be bullish tomorrow ?
There is no randomness. It is just Chaos, a higher form of order.
  • #12,148
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:40pm Dec 22, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Welcome to FF shoeysfish and welcome to the AUD/USD thread.
The news I was talking about was the GDP final Q3 for the US which was already announced at 12:30am Sydney time this morning, the Aud spiked a little after the news but then continued it's downtrend yet again.
Cheers thanks for that, I did think you may have been talking about the house news at about 2.30am last night.

I had some shorts going up until it started to go up yesterday then took profit and then shorted again at .88252 then went to bed (celebrated the next week and a half off work with a few beers).

Thanks for the welcome! much appreciated, I am in Sydney, Aus. and yes Have so far enjoyed FF and particularly this forum. Have made some biggg mistakes but hey thats learning. Those mistakes cost me and were before I started to learn a bit. Made before I even started analysing charts, I would just watch the numbers on the trading platform (LOL).

I have not worked out how to paste charts yet, I usually use 8 21 125 ma's, momentum and rel strength indicators and have now started to look at the DX and the FF homepage (upcoming news) when trading Aus. 15m, 1hr & daily charts.

Regards
  • #12,149
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:46pm Dec 22, 2009 3:46pm
Good summary thanx Daytrader74
If the US economy shows weakness in the NYear in will reduce chance RBA will increase rates feb and therefore further accentuate any decline in the AUD. I think that the AUD at moment might be a magnifier of short outlook- Feb could get interesting!

cheers


Quoting Daytrader74
AUD traded lower Monday despite firmer equity market trade and rising commodity prices with losses attributed to
diminishing RBA rate hike speculation. AUD traded sharply lower last week pressured by weaker global equity
market trade and speculation that US and Australian yield gap is set to narrow as the Fed lays the foundation for
future rate hikes and the RBA moves towards steady policy. Although the RBA was the first major industrialized
central bank to hike interest rates this year recent statements from the RBA suggest that further rate hikes...
  • #12,150
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:24pm Dec 22, 2009 4:24pm
Euro daily charts. Euro hit first profit target at 1.4218 last night but i am still hoping to see 1.4141 this week, not sure if it will run out of trading time before that though due to short week.
DX looks like it wants to go up to around 79 as long as it stays above 78.50 (march contract) so aud and euro should see some more downside this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #12,151
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:28pm Dec 22, 2009 4:28pm
closed one of my shorts last night after the GDP data in anticipation of a retrace

what level should I be targeting to enter another short do u think?

and what do we all think is going to happen to this pair today?
  • #12,152
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:45pm Dec 22, 2009 4:45pm
AUD/USD intraday: capped by a negative trend line.

Pivot: 0.8825

Preference: Short @ 0.876 with targets @ 0.8715 & 0.8675 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.8825 look for further upside with 0.8875 & 0.891 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is badly directed.

Key levels
0.891
0.8875
0.8825
0.876 last
0.8715
0.8675
0.859
Attached Image
  • #12,153
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:50pm Dec 22, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting oztrader1
closed one of my shorts last night after the GDP data in anticipation of a retrace

what level should I be targeting to enter another short do u think?

and what do we all think is going to happen to this pair today?

I think japan is on holiday today so probably not much will happen in the asian session.
  • #12,154
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:54pm Dec 22, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting oztrader1
closed one of my shorts last night after the GDP data in anticipation of a retrace

what level should I be targeting to enter another short do u think?

and what do we all think is going to happen to this pair today?

Short from .8815 and .8885 I'll take profit around .8550

Shorts from .9150 and .9270 I'll keep for a while longer.

Don't panic, there is nothing suggesting that this down leg is over yet. Just enjoy the "gravity assisted ride".
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #12,155
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:56pm Dec 22, 2009 4:56pm
AUD/USD: Still Pressured By US Investor Repatriation Flows Sydney December 23: The AUD/USD opens the Asian session with an offered tone after dropping another 0.50% on an open/close basis on Tuesday. The word on Wall Street is that US investors are cashing in on some of the large offshore investment strategies to take advantage of the "risk-free" return offered by borrowing short-date US Treasuries and lending in the long-end - as the yield curve steepens to record levels. Analysts also point to growing optimism over the prospects of a US economic recovery - as drawing US investors back into US equities that will benefit from the growth story.
The end-of-year flows back into the USD is hitting the AUD/USD particularly hard, as the AUD was the main beneficiary of the USD-funded carry trade that became extremely crowded as December approached. The AUD/USD managed to hold the 0.8750 level when the USD spiked higher during the US morning session and traders report decent buying interest between 0.8740/50 with stops eyed below 0.8720. Hourly resistance has formed at 0.8835 while key resistance is found at the 100-day MA around 0.8865.
  • #12,156
  • Dec 22, 2009 5:00pm Dec 22, 2009 5:00pm
I read somewhere the japanese are very upset with the strong yen and might try to move USD/JPY a dozen pips higher in the thin market. And if U/J goes higher its generally not a good idea to short Anything/JPY.

Quoting Pipfull
I have a short position on aud/jpy from 79.83
what do u think?is it worthy to keep it till it retraces and reaches 79.83 or u think the movements will be bullish tomorrow ?
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #12,157
  • Dec 22, 2009 5:25pm Dec 22, 2009 5:25pm
just took a cheeky long from 8750 level, now just waiting for a break of that level to the downside which is 8673-8675 on the futures
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #12,158
  • Dec 22, 2009 5:32pm Dec 22, 2009 5:32pm
Does anyone here trade using the Ichimoku Cloud ? and if so what has been your win/loss ratio with it ?
  • #12,159
  • Dec 22, 2009 6:27pm Dec 22, 2009 6:27pm
HI All,
just logging in for a short time to check the markets. Volume is very low, not much news happening, might hang around for a while to see if there are any opportunities. Westpac's view of the dollar is quite bullish, as a matter of fact they still believe it will be in mid 90s my march next year. All the reports I am reading are bearish for next year. Anyone with any good insite information? Please share reports if you have any.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #12,160
  • Dec 22, 2009 6:41pm Dec 22, 2009 6:41pm
The US will raise the interest rate in the beggining of the year, giving much needed strength to the dollar, economic indicators are in position and the US economy will gradually regain strength ...housing and retails sales are up coupled with a raised interest rate should increase the value 10 fold... I looked back to the charts and the AUD /US has climbed for the past 8 years...what goes up must come down
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