AUD/USD

got to go pipping and merry x-mas to you DT74 and everyone

MERRY XMAS BEN10

this is more of a longer term view hence the weekly chart

but what i see is a strong reversal pattern formed after a long uptrend... i.e. the H&S pattern

price has already dropped and we are just below a former resistance level of 0.88770 going back to july2007... notice how when there was a previous trend change around july2008 how far the price dropped (to around 0.60 from a high of 0.98)

at present the us dollar is gaining strength and gold has been weakening (the aussie is also a commodity currency)

in the short term i would expect the price to reach at least 0.85530 which is a previous resistance level going back to Dec2007

merry christmas to all, may you all have a prosperous new year to come!!! don't forget to enter short to all rallies you'll find we're still far from rebouncing ... maybe middle next month. I have been short at 9016 and still short. I liquidated some of my positions though and adjusted my stop loss at breakeven.

oanda's forex order book can be accessed online.

http://fxtradeinfocenter.oanda.com/orderbook/

the market is so confussed with the equities going high while the gold went under 1100 searching for a base of rebound
the market is waiting for them to go to the same direction and then it ll follow or , it might wait till the s&p500 to close after couple of hours and then the gold momentum will drive them

I jus recently closed my Shorts NZDUSD but I see more potential for a breakout from the triangle so I took a new short at a level which is not RRR wise ,hoping for the breakout ,I'll add more shorts if it bounces from S but I'll hedge if the price breaks through R at .7300

The Aud couldn't muster a rally overnight to test the breakout from the H+S neckline, not even a 0.382 retracement of the small wave count, which is very bearish. Timewise the small correction DID take 0.382 of the small (3) wave down and it has made (slight) new lows so (4) may be completed and we're heading for somewhere near 0.8625 as (5)/ three. Incidentally, if the subsequent w four rallied to the same degree as w two then it would nicely touch the breakout of the neckline before heading lower

Have a good Xmas!

This baby still has much further to fall...

First profit targets hit at 8783, looking for 8744 next.

US GDP
US preliminary Q3 GDP was revised down to 2.8% from original report of a 3.5% rise in the
advanced estimate. Despite the downward revision, the improvement in US GDP suggests that
the worst of the US recessions is over. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis the
increase in Q3 GDP reflects positive contributions from personal consumption, exports, private
inventory investment, federal government spending and residential fixed investment. An increase
in consumption and improvement in the housing market helped boost Q3 GDP. This improvement
reflects significant impact of government stimulus to encourage demand for auto sales by the
cash for clunkers plan and tax credit for new homebuyers. There is concern that when
government stimulus is withdrawn the pace of the expansion may slow with growth limited by the
weakness of the US labor market. In addition, the Fed is beginning to lay the foundation for the
end of its ultra low interest rate policy and the first steps to exit from quantitative ease. How the
economy reacts when the Fed begins to withdraw stimulus will be key to the outlook for US GDP
growth in 2010. Columbia University economist's Stiglitz says there's a significant chance that the
US economy will contract in the second half of 2010. He urges the US government to prepare a
second stimulus package to create jobs. According to Stiglitz, the economy must grow by at least
3% to create enough jobs to meet US population growth.
Final Q3 GDP will be released on December 22nd at 8:30 ET and is expected to be revised down
to 2.7%. The additional downward revision will reflect weaker September construction figures and
a more rapid drop in inventory draw-down.

AUD traded lower Monday despite firmer equity market trade and rising commodity prices with losses attributed to
diminishing RBA rate hike speculation. AUD traded sharply lower last week pressured by weaker global equity
market trade and speculation that US and Australian yield gap is set to narrow as the Fed lays the foundation for
future rate hikes and the RBA moves towards steady policy. Although the RBA was the first major industrialized
central bank to hike interest rates this year recent statements from the RBA suggest that further rate hikes are
less certain. Last Wednesday the RBA's deputy governor Battelino said that Australian interest rates are back in
the normal range and he sees less need for a rate hike if loan rates keep rising. His comments follow Tuesday's
release of the RBA policy minutes for December. The RBA policy minutes were seen as less hawkish and
dampen speculation that the RBA will hike rates aggressively at the start of 2010. The minutes for the December
RBA policy meeting said that arguments for a rate hike are finely balanced and that the current rate structure is
less accommodative. Australia also reported weaker than expected Q3 GDP which adds to speculation that the
RBA will soon cause and its rate hike cycle. There was little reaction to reports that Australia's November new
vehicle sales rose by 5.5%. AUD remains vulnerable to diminished RBA rate hike speculation and speculation
that Fed is moving closer to the end of its ease cycle. Sentiment towards the AUD has turned negative.

AUDUSD
BEARISH Probes 0.8811 low, a sustained break of which would pave way for 0.8760
ahead of the 0.8570 key low. Near-term resistance is at 0.9070 high.

http://img40.imagefra.me/img/img40/2...mm_5aa3cbe.png

add more short?

or this one and add to the winning position (snowball it!)

http://img02.imagefra.me/img/img02/2...im_8b89fd8.png

we maybe back into the daily pp before anymore downside today.

add more short?[/quote]

Yes please

dont forget the take profit (t/f) and stop loss (s/t) function! its shopping season!

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/2...im_5f24cf1.png

Yes please [/quote]

may add to the kiwi

AUD/USD intraday: under pressure.

Pivot: 0.8875

Preference: Short positions below 0.8875 with targets @ 0.8775 & 0.8675 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 0.8875 look for further upside with 0.891 & 0.8965 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

Key levels
0.8965
0.891
0.8875
0.8815 last
0.8775
0.8675
0.859