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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #188,981
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:24pm Dec 22, 2009 3:24pm
gu daily

1st top where we dipped to 1.57xx and bounced was a head and shoulder top ... the neck line did not break

this 2nd top that I have shown is a rounded top ...when ever you see these on tops or bottoms they are powerful . We could form a handle in the 5800 zone for move back into 6100 / 6300 test

OR we could just collapse thru support 1.57xx next stop 1.5500 , 1.5300 and 1.5000

very critical if counter trending right now to use tight stops and good money mangement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,982
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:26pm Dec 22, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting dil
I'm so mad...

to be honest I owuld cut it lose , take the hit , wait for a slight reatrce into 6000 , sell , using a good money management

you never know by this time next week you might have made back your 200 pip plus some

also try getting your hands on a book called trading in the zone. It is awesome. It has a good section on how to deal with loss.

Losses are part of fx .. you have to embrace them , one you can accept losses , profit are easier to makle The amount of times, I have held a losing trade and have been so busy worrying baout that that I have let loads of good trades pass me. Use good money management and stops that suit your mm , even if you are only 50% right you will make money at the end of the year even if your stops are say 40 pip and wins 60 pip. You will be surprised how free your mind becomes . There is one trader in these forums that is a buddy of mine he must have a win ratio of 30 % only , BUT his stops are super tight , his entries when correct are deadly and he lets his winners run. At the end of the year he does very well.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,983
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:30pm Dec 22, 2009 3:30pm
I dunno about you guys, but I'm thinking we start heading up from here... my TP is 1.64XX
  • #188,984
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:38pm Dec 22, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
....
also try getting your hands on a book called trading in the zone. It is awesome. It has a good section on how to deal with loss....
Just have to ask!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Trading-in-the-Zone%5B1%5D[1].pdf   733 KB | 503 downloads
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #188,985
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:39pm Dec 22, 2009 3:39pm
Long @ 1.5937
SL @ 1.5923 Will consider closing sooner if I see bearish price action below the 23.6 fib (1.5960)
TP @ 1.6000

I buying the retrace I think there is more of a retrace left maybe up to 1.6030 but I will be getting out shortly before the 50 Fibo (1.6000)

This is just speculation but I notice that after close on NY session if we are due for a retrace we nearly always seem to drift up until London Open.

After London open I will be prepared to short again

Good Luck ALL!!! Lets see if this Funny PA will kill me yet.....
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  • #188,986
  • Edited 3:57pm Dec 22, 2009 3:40pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting dil
I'm so mad...
Hello,

Why you dont want to accept loss,it is part of this game.
keep the rest of your account,and start over.This is my advice if you ask me.

You need money to trade again.The odds are not on your side,as we have a daily close below weekly S1,so mostly it will hid down to S2,that just for me,You are the one who have to decide.

Note:dont blame me if it goes up from here as the market do what it wants to do.

Good luck
atheer1
atheer1
  • #188,987
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:41pm Dec 22, 2009 3:41pm
comnig of a rounded top the slop of each segement of channel varies slightly and gets steeper as the right hand side of the circle forms,. this is what makes them so deadly . As the sellers jump on board the slope of the channel gets steeper in each segment

from 1.59xx we will either retrace to top of chanel 1.6220 (20 % chance)
or accelerate into 1.5720 (80% chance due to rounded top formation)

these chances are not in a text they are scores I gave the chance.


I am not a trade caller and get a little bashed for that , but what i post is some nice little pointers that you will be hard pressed to find in any text books out there. Great stuff for the newbies to carry forward in their trading careers with them

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  • #188,988
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:42pm Dec 22, 2009 3:42pm
I am waiting for one of the biggest short opportunities of my life, but it sure takes time. And that is in the S&P 500 index.
The reasons are a combo of fundamental issues (deleveraging have to continue, thus will create poor GDP growth when the free Fed money will be scaled down and pulled back) and forex issues (Fed's low interest rates and the insane printing of money has created asset price inflation and a carry trade that has hurt the dollar badly, but this carry trade should be reversed, and the speculators that have borrowed dollars and placed them in other assets will have to close their positions).
But I am having problems with the fact that the equity markets still being stable (or even going up) when the dollar is rising. Can it be that we have had a change in risk appetite, where people earlier put their investments in non dollar markets when risk appetite were increased, but we now see that the money goes to the us when the risk appetite is increasing? Why do we see this behaviour?
Well, I am still waiting to go super short in equities, because i do not believe the relationship has been broken, but I am a bit wary.
In the meantime I'm fighting to preserve my capital, learn the FX markets better and trying to make small increases in my trading capital as the waiting goes by.

Any views on the dollar vs the equity markets? I would like to hear other views.

Sorry for going a bit off topic in this thread. Maybe I could go on topic by saying: Short cable, target xx, SL yy, but that would really give no value, or what?
  • #188,989
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:42pm Dec 22, 2009 3:42pm
Quoting MoForce
I dunno about you guys, but I'm thinking we start heading up from here... my TP is 1.64XX

check out post on rounded top

we could start the rapid movement down forming the fianl segment of the rounded top and the one with the steepest curve ... kind of like when the curve steepened on eu the other day
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,990
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:44pm Dec 22, 2009 3:44pm
newbies .. take note .... look at the stops ...15 pips,,,and target 60 pip 1:3 r/r ratio .....now that is what i was mentioning in earlier post . Very nice risk management

Quoting maxss280
Long @ 1.5937
SL @ 1.5923 Will consider closing sooner if I see bearish price action below the 23.6 fib (1.5960)
TP @ 1.6000

I buying the retrace I think there is more of a retrace left maybe up to 1.6030 but I will be getting out shortly before the 50 Fibo (1.6000)

This is just speculation but I notice that after close on NY session if we are due for a retrace we nearly always seem to drift up until London Open.

After London open I will be prepared to short again

Good Luck ALL!!! Lets see if this Funny PA will kill me...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,991
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:44pm Dec 22, 2009 3:44pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Wishful thinking? I quit observing the movements today to go do some Xmas shopping, returned and cable has only retraced 44 pips from today's low...

How are we heading up Sir please? To 1.64xx or do you mean 1.604xx?

Quoting MoForce
I dunno about you guys, but I'm thinking we start heading up from here... my TP is 1.64XX
  • #188,992
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:56pm Dec 22, 2009 3:56pm
oddly enough a buddy of mine and I were discussing the same. We think that the top is very very close , as in Jan / feb ish

I do not even think we need bad fundies for indexes to drop .

the fact that you mentioned borrwed dollars to buy equities also adds fuel to my arguement .... higher interest rates and lower return on the borrowed dollars will cause most to sell equities and pay off loans.

If dollar is ripping would you rather have your money in interest rate and tresury where yields are high or equities that will suffer form a storng dollar and higher interest (99% of companies run on debt)

tops in indexes seem complicated ... look at the one in 2007 ...

however bear vol div , bear div rsx and close to 50 % fib retracment of up move

decline is close .. maybe q2 2010 maybe even late q3 if we go sideways on a massive distribution top

and may be even sooner as osmething is up with JP morgan ( look at daily chart ) rounded top forming handle. I think dec 2010 20 puts at 44 should cover making money on JP morgan /. They likely have a lot of derivative exposure to eurozone.

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Quoting deepdish
I am waiting for one of the biggest short opportunities of my life, but it sure takes time. And that is in the S&P 500 index.
The reasons are a combo of fundamental issues (deleveraging have to continue, thus will create poor GDP growth when the free Fed money will be scaled down and pulled back) and forex issues (Fed's low interest rates and the insane printing of money has created asset price inflation and a carry trade that has hurt the dollar badly, but this carry trade should be reversed, and the speculators that have borrowed dollars and...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,993
  • Dec 22, 2009 3:59pm Dec 22, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
Still holding. Last 1.598.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...1222185600.GIF

Still holding shorts from 1.607. Looking to get to 1.584 Last 1.5969.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #188,994
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:03pm Dec 22, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
Still holding shorts from 1.607. Looking to get to 1.584 Last 1.5969.

please give dailyfx .com the thanks for that chart....looks same format as thers anyway

would be nice to see what your thoughts are ....

the target is great... I have this odd feeling dec 24th US market gets dropped adding to usd strength once more
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #188,995
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:05pm Dec 22, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
check out post on rounded top

we could start the rapid movement down forming the fianl segment of the rounded top and the one with the steepest curve ... kind of like when the curve steepened on eu the other day
From my charts if we don't see a significant rise now we'll be accelerating into 1.55XX from London onward which is why although I think we'll probably go up from here, it's not a good idea to place trades... too risky. I'll probably take a break from trading until after New Years.
  • #188,996
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:05pm Dec 22, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
check out post on rounded top

we could start the rapid movement down forming the fianl segment of the rounded top and the one with the steepest curve ... kind of like when the curve steepened on eu the other day
Are you short GU right now or have you been on the sideline watching this down move all this time? I know you've been waiting for the retrace to 1.63 or 1.64 but it hasn't materialized. If GU decides to go straight to 1.57, will you still be just observing?
  • #188,997
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:09pm Dec 22, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
please give dailyfx .com the thanks for that chart....looks same format as thers anyway

would be nice to see what your thoughts are ....

the target is great... I have this odd feeling dec 24th US market gets dropped adding to usd strength once more
What about the theory that the pros buy into weakness and sell into strength (yes i stole that from you )??
  • #188,998
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:19pm Dec 22, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
please give dailyfx .com the thanks for that chart....looks same format as thers anyway

would be nice to see what your thoughts are ....

the target is great... I have this odd feeling dec 24th US market gets dropped adding to usd strength once more
DailyFX actually get their charts from TradingCentral in France. So you're correct. They are the same. Right click and you'll see where it's from if you click open image in new tab?

TradingCentral.com provided a clearer picture than I ever could. If I agree with their view, I post their chart. And they're happy that I do. On some you'll even see their copyright symbol.

I'm short as was made clear in the earlier post by the chart here. I guess you missed it. Those are my thoughts. It's all in the chart. Why do I need to add more?
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #188,999
  • Dec 22, 2009 4:41pm Dec 22, 2009 4:41pm
Climbing Till EPA
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* Never Trust To Any Indicator *
  • #189,000
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 22, 2009 4:49pm | Edited 4:52pm
I am waiting for one of the biggest short opportunities of my life, but it sure takes time. And that is in the S&P 500 index.
Any views on the dollar vs the equity markets? I would like to hear other views.
Take a look at last years Dollar $$,how it gained strenght all the way from December 08 too March 09.
Maybe history repeating itself !

THIS IS FOR deepdish.........
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