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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #188,481
  • Dec 20, 2009 12:45am Dec 20, 2009 12:45am
Quoting GlobalMacro
first of all the question remains still open:

At what level exactly did you sell GBP/USD yesterday going into the weekend?

Secondly before...
exactly 16200 closed 16145
exactly 16210 closed 16150

good enough .

And as you want to have a little dig ... counter trades work as long as one manages risk well ... the saying ' the trend is your friend ' was not made up because it is bullshit and as far as i know the daily is still in a down trend.

and as far as 1.5300 ... its coming and lower .. so i was off ..who care i have been short since 1.6970 and holding. and enjoying the intraday trading.

I think Geppy will vouch for me saying that we are heading down but will see some form of upthrust to 1.7000 1st , exactly that happened.

The top in 2007 took exactly 19 week to form .... this top is 19 weeks , but break may be halted due to xmas. In fact ifj anything they may use the low volume next couple of weeks to get it back into 6400 zone just to start selling at discount again in mid January

I guess this chart of DX mean sweet FA to you.

this is the very move I have been wittering on for weeks about.... so it took longer to materialize than I thought , but materilize it did.

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  • #188,482
  • Dec 20, 2009 12:56am Dec 20, 2009 12:56am
I guess you have not looked at a monthly gu chart

looks very toppy to me....

1.3500 seems reasonable placing fib extensions and based on price moving in the same slope as 2000 to 2001 we will reach 1.,3600 by the end of 2010 ,
that is my move and plan for 2010

so what you got for me as a come back to this ? that those dojis on the weekly are not bearish and those candle I indicated on the monthly are not bearish and that break of the 10 month weekly channel on the DX after volume was accumulation for 8 week is not bullish dollar ?

I would love to hear your arguments ...

so you caught a 100 pip move up and may be 250 pip....of course there will be wave 2 , and 5 within a 5 wave down move , but look at even the 60 min
since fomc ...300 pip down , 130 up, 200 don 100 up ... who has the ball bulls or bears ? that was my point . If you are going to counter trend trade and mention it then let the newbies know where the stops are and how high risk it is. The moves down are double the moves up.

forget about the fundamental ones .. news is all bs any way ...

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Quoting GlobalMacro
first of all the question remains still open:

At what level exactly did you sell GBP/USD yesterday going into the weekend?

Secondly before...
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  • #188,483
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:07am Dec 20, 2009 1:07am
On follow on to GMs question on my longer term calls

those that are into ew ...

weekly chart lovely triple top ( very powerful as a bear move) at 1.6800 yo 1.7000

wave 5 ends min 1.3000 area

all educated guesses and of course world war III could happen between now and the end of 2010

so is 1.3500 coming ... chances are 90 % higher than going back to 2.000 at this point in time

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  • #188,484
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:19am Dec 20, 2009 1:19am
sorry I mentioned the minimum wave 5 could end .... I did not mention the maximum

well this chart shows it .... sounds ridiculous I know but 1.0395 is 100 % fe on the weekly and didn't 1.3500 sound stupid when gbp was 2.2 not that long ago ?

I was talking to my Dad today. There is an election in May I believe ... they may hold up gbp somehow going into that ..but after that all hell will break lose.

lets just assume that wave 4 completed 1.7000 and wave 5 is even truncated and forms double bottom that is 1.3500. If wave 5 is the same as wave 3 on weekly (2.0100 to 1.3500.....6600 pips) then wave 5 could also end at 1.04000

NOW I want to say that this is a long term call could take 2 years to unfold. so do not go selling the house , car etc and going all in , wait for nice retraces on the daily / weekly and add to sell positions and manage stops and risk accordingly.

and as a disclaimer this is not a trade call ... just a simple observation of what I see formulating on the charts and what my thoughts are. I am a day trader by nature but I did not want to miss out on this swing trade

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Quoting malcolmb14
On follow on to GMs question on my longer term calls

those that are into ew ...

weekly chart lovely triple top ( very powerful as a bear move) at 1.6800 yo 1.7000

wave 5 ends min 1.3000 area

all educated guesses and of course world war III could happen between now and the end of 2010

so is 1.3500 coming ... chances are 90 % higher than going back to 2.000 at this point in time

Attachment
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  • #188,485
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:25am Dec 20, 2009 1:25am
how do i know gu is in a down trend ...

as long as price remains under that Jurik sma I am selling all rallies , longs(if taken at all)will be taken with 1/2 positions or less of down moves.

1st chart now ...

2nd chart 2008

also note how the top we have had form since 1.6900 is text book rounded top OR inverted cup and handle and the handle forms over next 2 weeks

I would love to hear any ones arguements how daily , weekly or monthyl is bullish

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  • #188,486
  • Edited 1:43am Dec 20, 2009 1:30am | Edited 1:43am
Cant Agree More with you..MAL.

Trend is Down. Break of 157.00 will tell...( Bounce is expected there)

Even if it goes Up.. stop Hunting... Diveregnce or whatever......One should Manage Risk.

If it goes up..that would mean more Dollar weakness... Doubt that.. Not yet..they will sell Dollar in Strenght..

Look at DX..People..

MALCOLMB14...Any thoughts on G/J.?... Weekly /Monthly ...VSA Analysis....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #188,487
  • Edited 1:44am Dec 20, 2009 1:33am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting nAVIN2007
did 7 banks really go down this weekend..or was malcomb bullsh*ting?

me bullshitting ... never lol

banks have constantly been dropping like flies ... just you have to know where to look

do not look at the second link it my scare the crap out of you

Note this has not been on the news , but oddly enough for the 1st time this year I saw that 7 banks went down on the news this weekend. Could it be that the Goldman biys have had enough of this bull rally and are now ready to sell the crap out of the market and make even more trillions on the move down that will be equal to or larger than the one in 2007.

Oh and note on the 2nd link ... the lack of bank failures in June . Why is that do you think .. all banks were busy making money that month or the fact that FDIC were broke and had to go to ask for 45 billion of 5 year advance insurance premiums , that they have spent about 12 billion of in last 3 months alone. Yes they were broke and would not let any banks fail in June of 2009 ... or hardly any. Yet no one knows of this.

Even if market does collapse ... will this collapse USD ... did it in 2007 ? what is better a battered stock market ( in which GS made trillions going short any way ) or a currency crisis ?

Did any know that even if US sell 2500 tonnes of gold they will still hold the worlds largest reserves ? what better play than say ' hey gold going to 1600 ' then as it it hits 1200 to allow start selling gold into the strength , strengthening the USD and saving the day. Remember oil when it was 146 going to 200 per barrel . If gold did move to 1800 per ounce and it was a real hedge on inflation be very scared ... think US has a housing market now interest will be 16 % , a loaf of bread $25

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sev...140-2009-12-18

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/.../banklist.html
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  • #188,488
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:48am Dec 20, 2009 1:48am
Citi bank , the holder of 1 million commercial mortgages .. safe or doomed ? remember lehman they went thru the same hoops before failure

Ask most Americans who Citi is they do not know , let alone know that one of the largest holders of commercial mortgages filed for Chapter 11 along with Ambac one of the largest bond companies in the US

some light reading ....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1789...s?source=hp_wc
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  • #188,489
  • Dec 20, 2009 1:50am Dec 20, 2009 1:50am
Bill gross pimco hedge fund manager is going to cash ... he forecast down turn of market due to Lehman crash

http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38503

for once the charts and the news are starting to all line up

1.3500 here we come baby.....
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  • #188,490
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:00am Dec 20, 2009 2:00am
Quoting malcolmb14
me bullshitting ... never lol

banks have constantly been dropping like flies ... just you have to know where to look

do not look at the second link it my scare the crap out of you

Note this has not been on the news , but oddly enough for the 1st time this year I saw that 7 banks went down on the news.

Oh and note on the 2nd link ... the lack of bank failures in June . Why is that do you think .. all banks were busy making money that month or the fact that FDIC were broke and had to go to ask for 45 billion of 5 year advance insurance...
may be cleaning the defaulters increase the confidence in the financial system & $ strength , not like before market react adversely when started cleaning .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #188,491
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:05am Dec 20, 2009 2:05am
Quoting fontu
may be cleaning the defaulters increase the confidence in the financial system & $ strength , not like before market react adversely when started cleaning .
fontu
market confidence .. threat iof interest rate hikes makes usd stronger
market crashes usd gets stronger as money moved into cash

win win for usd
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  • #188,492
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:16am Dec 20, 2009 2:16am
Quoting malcolmb14
market confidence .. threat iof interest rate hikes makes usd stronger
market crashes usd gets stronger as money moved into cash

win win for usd
agree win win Usd, a double dip in the stock markets, fall in gold but long term lose lose usd it will go down down
  • #188,493
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:20am Dec 20, 2009 2:20am
Quoting malcolmb14
I mentioned this last week ...

680 pip is 680 pip . for last 3 weeks i have done 1200 pips but on 5 standard , so I guess i could say i have done 60,000 pips
Sorry Malcolm, I didn't understand this answer. I was simply telling him that he should minus the failed trades from the positive trades, I have no idea if he counts trades twice, how many lots he has on a trade or anything else to do with his trading.
  • #188,494
  • Dec 20, 2009 2:32am Dec 20, 2009 2:32am
Quoting Big1red9
Malcolmb,

I agree. It is a silly game of pride and ego. It allows someone trading a penny a pip the same bragging rights as someone trading for $100 a pip. First if someones ego and pride is in the game, they are going to loose. Second, it is ridiculous to think that there is no difference between trading a penny a pip or $100. People will react to the dollar impact of the larger trade much differently.
If someone has a successful trade and it goes 100 pips then it shouldn't matter if they traded with a penny a pip or $100 that still makes them as good as each other at trading, so why should the larger contract person have "better bragging rights". If the risk is the same for each person, because one of them has a smaller account, then emotions shouldn't get in the way for the $100 trader any more than the penny trader, because if emotions get in the way you will lose also.
  • #188,495
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:01am Dec 20, 2009 3:01am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
My sole contribution on this debate about pips or no pips.

First, if someone based in the UK makes 10,000 pips at 0.20 lot per pip, they're no better off than someone in, say Africa, who makes 500 pips at 0.10 lots per pip, why? Spending power. You can build a massive house for £20,000 in some places in Africa, where can you build a flat for £20K in the UK?

Second, whatever profit one makes in this business is of little use if not used for the purpose of 'impact'. If all you with your pips is buy a nice car, build a great house, buy an even nicer car, but you're not impacting on the community you're in with the profit that has been given to you by your maker, then there's no 'bragging rights' to be claimed afterall - as all the people engaged in this broil are then simply saying is 'I earn more than you' - do people still do that????

A brief reminder of a 'true' celebrity who died earlier in the year, whose life and death had an impact upon many, yet who never bragged over what they earned, how successful they were etc, i.e. Natasha Richardson (Google her if you don't know her). In summary, because of who she was (not because of her acting), when she died, for the first time ever, both Broadway and Hollywood dimmed their lights in recognition of her personality (and many great actors and actresses have died before her)- this has bugged me all year round and made my vision to have an impact on others with any profits made from trading more urgent.

The question is 'what impact do we allwant to have on our communities and on society in general with the gifts and talents given to us to make profit in this market'. 'Bragging' doesn't quite sit well with 'impact', doesn't sit well with anything good really.

Have a great Sunday, and a profitable week ahead.

i
  • #188,496
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:13am Dec 20, 2009 3:13am
Quoting malcolmb14
market confidence .. threat iof interest rate hikes makes usd stronger
market crashes usd gets stronger as money moved into cash

win win for usd
Thanks for good information . Threat of rates hikes /market crashes all against USD/money moved into cash all should point to more confidence in USD in near future & any carry trades should be started unwinding.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #188,497
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:34am Dec 20, 2009 3:34am
Quoting malcolmb14
me bullshitting ... never lol

banks have constantly been dropping like flies ... just you have to know where to look

do not look at the second link it my scare the crap out of you

Note this has not been on the news , but oddly enough for the 1st time this year I saw that 7 banks went down on the news this weekend. Could it be that the Goldman biys have had enough of this bull rally and are now ready to sell the crap out of the market and make even more trillions on the move down that will be equal to or larger than the one in 2007.

Oh and...
Many thanks for this malcomb
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #188,498
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:41am Dec 20, 2009 3:41am
Quoting malcolmb14

Attachment
Ty for the charts Looks like the trend is going to test 30 and more volume is getting into the downtrend so sell big time....damn i need esignal data's so bad
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
  • #188,499
  • Edited 4:51am Dec 20, 2009 3:46am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting malcolmb14
I mentioned this last week ...

680 pip is 680 pip . for last 3 weeks i have done 1200 pips but on 5 standard , so I guess i could say i have done 60,000 pips
Sorry Mal, u keep on talking and talking. Since i've been in FF, i never seen your calls. How about u try to make call and calculate all the pips that you got? Sorry i don't make any offence.. but i can see your bad intention for newbie and i guess you think u good enough in Forex more than someone else.

1200 for 3 weeks is 400 pips per week.. lol..did u forgot that 680 pips is just last week? 5 standard lots?? Did i mentioned about my lot? even 6 standard lots i used to trade. Please down to earth a little bit to make people respect to u.

This is your last week posting about me.. actually i dont care about this.. sorry im just losing my patience.

Quoting malcolmb14
but in reality you only made 103 pip in trading with 1 lot or $1032. Odd how people report the pips they made. Kind of like if i trade 10 lot and make 100 pip gj do i make 100 pip or 10,000 pips ? i say it is 100 pip
Quoting malcolmb14
reality is ...
who give a flying ..f**k anyway ?
i did 800 pip week before last and 700 last week ...do i go spouting it ll over the place ? ..not to mention gold and oil shorts and my es trades not been posting recently as i have been busy making money
Quoting malcolmb14
This is not the 1st time i have noticed this fellow posting how much money he makes and he has had alot of contradication in his posts. Maybe he has got better who knows

if the guy wants a signal service .. go spend his hard earned money on marketing and setting up a web site and then he can spray out all the signals he wants. oh hold on what is that blogspot at bottom of his singature .. crafty
Mal, for info i'm doin this for free! This is my last post about this and i dont want to say more and i know, after this surely i'm not welcomed here because most of trader in FF will hate me because of this post.

Cheers!
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #188,500
  • Dec 20, 2009 3:53am Dec 20, 2009 3:53am
Quoting Yngwie
Sorry Mal, u keep on talking and talking. Since i've been in FF, i never seen your calls. How about u try to make call and calculate all the pips that you got? Sorry i don't make any offence.. but i can see your bad intention for newbie and i guess you think u good enough in Forex more than someone else.

1200 for 3 weeks is 400 pips per week.. lol..did u forgot that 680 pips is just last week? 5 standard lots?? Did i mentioned about my lot? even 6 standard lots i used to trade. Please down to earth a little bit to make people respect to u.

Cheers!...
Oh come on bro...please stop this now . I'm a newbie myself compared to many of the traders that are posting right now, and I can tell u that when I was following Auslanco GBPJPY/Cable thread very close I've seen malc's calls, navin's, GM's, direct-trade's, rgitt, wormboy... and many others so let's end this "i make more pips a week" competition as it doesn't matter as much as the leverage you put in (not that I have a big account, in fact it's quite small).

Really just mastering volume trading is quite a lot (if you haven't tried can't say fx has no volume so i'm not trying it) and it's not always easy to understand many of malc's charts so... Last friday (when i came back on this topic) I saw malc was selling too but, I didn't see your call.

I can tell he's got my respect and the respect of other's that I respect.
"Hate the sin, love the sinner." - Gandhi
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