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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #187,901
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:55pm Dec 16, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting myfx
thanks man....keeping an eye on this trade now.

Hope you are long though, too many guys in the last few pages on the wrong side of this one.
  • #187,902
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:56pm Dec 16, 2009 2:56pm
Yep, good advice Cleg. I put on 2 lots then close 1 at decent profit and raise remaining lot stop to above BE and don't worry about it.
  • #187,903
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:58pm Dec 16, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting Accumulation
Yep, good advice Cleg. I put on 2 lots then close 1 at decent profit and raise remaining lot stop to above BE and don't worry about it.

When I scale in, I tend to do it with the market's money and put a SL on the existing trade once in profit, rinse and repeat. That way you are trading with other people's cash....
  • #187,904
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:09pm Dec 16, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting cloggie
Thanks kiddo, been only doing this for 23 years.

  • #187,905
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:37pm Dec 16, 2009 3:37pm
This 5m chart is currently giving a good pattern to follow and stay with which clearly shows how energy is created as the multiple ema's slowly gather, converge and reach a tight compression... then after tight compression, suddenly and rapidly separate releasing the energy in an explosion of pip movement until the energy is fully dissipated resulting in pricing that collapses as the ema's gather again and / or roll-over. The cycle continually repeats itself... sometimes best visualized on the same time frame.

Should the PA remain in this area** of convergence - between the 5m 144ema (aqua) (~1.6332) and the 1h 144ema (aqua) (~1.6306) another good compression pattern should form and explode in the hours ahead.

These patterns of convergence and compression naturally occur but can often form in concert with news events and optimal session times.

The jump from the compression point ~1.6250 began shortly before and was fueled further by the GBP news releases in the recent LND session.

It's just a visual method that is worth following as a timing signal that could correlate with other trading systems. I'm mixing these ema compression charts with my study of Magix's MTF trading system (FF thread) which also uses various moving averages as direction signals to determine trends, entries and targets.

Dr. D.
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  • #187,906
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:47pm Dec 16, 2009 3:47pm
ok, after the "fed-retrace" we will see as next target the 1,6430 level
  • #187,907
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:31pm Dec 16, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting cloggie
Hope you are long though, too many guys in the last few pages on the wrong side of this one.
How do you know you have a crystal ball
  • #187,908
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:35pm Dec 16, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting Lejumeau
How do you know you have a crystal ball
In a certain sense...yes...

Oh wait, you weren't asking me.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #187,909
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:39pm Dec 16, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting Lejumeau
How do you know you have a crystal ball

Chrystal balls are about as useful as chocolate teacups.
  • #187,910
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:42pm Dec 16, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting Lejumeau
How do you know you have a crystal ball

Never be so sure about where the market is going next
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  • #187,911
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:44pm Dec 16, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting cloggie
Hope you are long though, too many guys in the last few pages on the wrong side of this one.

are you really really sure ?

they got you right where they want you .....very nice bull trap going into FOMC .. spike it just above resistance ... set the trap , then FOMC , slam trap door is shut

think 1,4500 or lower

I was tlaking to a trader on skype yesterday that posts in here saying that is they dropped GU to 1.6150 buy like mad , if they mark it up prior to FOMC sell like mad

That move to test resistance level that had not been tested waso n no demand on a 30 min chart ( low volume up bar ) I was in selling mode before the news even hit

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  • #187,912
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:46pm Dec 16, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting Lejumeau
Never be so sure about where the market is going next
Dont take it seriously guys just makind fun while market is sleeping
  • #187,913
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:52pm Dec 16, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
are you really really sure ?

they got you right where they want you .....very nice bull trap going into FOMC .. spike it just above resistance ... set the trap , then FOMC , slam trap door is shut

think 1,4500 or lower

I was tlaking to a trader...
Uh...this was not a test...a test is a breach of a support or resistance area, and a fail (couldn't close candle). I have circled some of these on your chart.

I am not arguing with the logic of talking to people on skype or that if are in a bull chart or bear chart, but if this is the resistance line you have...it has not been tested yet.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #187,914
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:55pm Dec 16, 2009 4:55pm
Does anyone think that with the tone of the Bernake speach
Tha US would like to finish the year with a currency going up so it will make people thiink that things are going good for the next year so it look better for everybody in ther book for 2009.... ????
and make people spend money for the holiday and make think that the economy is doing better for the next result in spring 2010

or this a crazy thougth
  • #187,915
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:06pm Dec 16, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting Magix
Uh...this was not a test...a test is a breach of a support or resistance area, and a fail (couldn't close candle). I have circled some of these on your chart.

I am not arguing with the logic of talking to people on skype or that if are in a bull chart or bear chart, but if this is the resistance line you have...it has not been tested yet.
Magix .. no offence mate ... but that was a test. NO demand into prior resistance. Who is the VSA expert around here me or you ? They move price up under low volume , in fact on a 30 min chart there was even a buying climax ( very high volume wide spread up bar ) that knocked the market sideways ...look at my posting in the vsa chat forum I am in talking baout the weakness that had appeared at 1,6370.

Life is pretty simple in the GU world.....40 pip d/d for what could be 360 pip return if 6200 is tested after we saw that upthrust trap move.

why was 6200 defended all week ? simple ..... why would they want price to drop ? well if gu was to drop before the fomc how can they accumulate a really nice position at 6320 , it would be like going into a car dealership and buying the car for 10 k more than the positions price .. at 6320 they are selling at discount ... at 6000 they are paying to much

then fomc did not change ...in fact the words
' positive on growth' and ' not planning on extending the emergency plans' will likely raise interest rate futures and be slightly positive for the usd.

on a 4 hour chart if we get close under 1.6300 forget 6200 say hello 6100 to 6000 by end of week....again as always pure speculation .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4323
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #187,916
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:07pm Dec 16, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Magix
Uh...this was not a test...a test is a breach of a support or resistance area, and a fail (couldn't close candle). I have circled some of these on your chart.

I am not arguing with the logic of talking to people on skype or that if are in a bull chart or bear chart, but if this is the resistance line you have...it has not been tested yet.
ok look at line 6350 also resistance ... that has failed on a test ...
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  • #187,917
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:16pm Dec 16, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Magix .. no offence mate ... but that was a test. NO demand into prior resistance. Who is the VSA expert around here me or you ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4323
No offence taken Mal..

I guess I didn't realize that VSA doesn't abide by the same rules as other charts or charting methods. Where is my head.

A test of support or resistance in any other charting I have studied, means we CROSS above Resistance or Cross down below Support, and fail to hold the area.

There is a little bit of a gap that I see on your chart, and according to price that I see today, it confirms, there was no direct attack on the line you price point you have selected.

Call this price point rejection, a failure of your VSA or anything anything other then a test of resistance.

I am not making up the rules, just relaying them as they apply to every other chart or charting method I have ever seen put into use.

AGAIN...

I am not arguing whether we go bull or bear here...that's a whole different conversation.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #187,918
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:28pm Dec 16, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting Magix
Hey Mal, I have a way for you to earn 10 back...

2 parter...

I say if you hedge a play now for 50 in both directions, in 24 hrs, you will be 100 pips the richer...

Will you take that bet?

Price mark, 1.6303
Oh...and Mal...
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.p...nduser&u=93165

Shoulda taken me up on this one...I was off by a bit...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #187,919
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:30pm Dec 16, 2009 5:30pm
Missed the decent break in the London session, but managed to scrap 50+ pips x 3 contracts in the GU, and 62+ pips in the EURO/USD.



Im watching 6317, and 1.4500 on the EURO..

I loved the fakeout during news releases..

I'm biased on the dollar gaining some footing here..
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lowest draw down possible please.
  • #187,920
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:32pm Dec 16, 2009 5:32pm
Magix .... the interesting thing is that vsa does not apply to other charting techniques..... most tradesr when they see ultra high volume up bars think ' oh look at all those buyers' ...WRONG !!! and then they wonder why they bought top of market ( been there done that)

I think that 6300 is key here on a 4 hour chart... that is the level to close under on a 4 hour.

My stop is on my sell at be +5 .. worst that happens i get stopped out

also look at this chart and 6350. That is also a s/r level on the 4 hour .... look how they spiked it for about 1 hour only before FOMC ... that seems very trappish to me

as always thanks for the banter....

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Quoting Magix
No offence taken Mal..

I guess I didn't realize that VSA doesn't abide by the same rules as other charts or charting methods. Where is my head.

A test of support or resistance in any other charting I have studied, means we CROSS above Resistance or Cross down below Support, and fail to hold the area.

There is a little bit of a gap that I see on your chart, and according to price that I see today, it confirms, there was no direct attack on the line you price point you have selected.

Call this price point rejection, a failure of your VSA...
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