DislikedIf we can close above 4625 or so, I am going to hang with my targets above 1.5100. If not, I am going to start managing my trades from 4625, 4680, and 4750 to get out of them. Let's see where the daily close leaves us. This baby is pretty oversold on a short-term basis. Likley some shorts will take profit before close and help us move up a little. Good trades to all.Ignored
But it's not implying that we're in a downtrend yet. Imho we entered neutral trend.
Bulls would have to make a new high above 1.5145, to re-instate the uptrend.
To have a valid downtrend I would like to see a 3 weeks low and then a breach of that new low, that would be the start of a fresh downtrend in eurusd (something on the daily / weekly time frame, not the 5 min chart ).
This low point could be today's low 1.4586 and I'll explain why later.
So for me now on we're in a sideway market that can't be trusted direction wise and that can be traded both way.
Today is marking the day where I stop having only eurusd longs.
Last time I switched strategy was in may.
Now for the 1.4586 low point, why the hell would I think that it could be a low for the next 3 weeks ?
Easy answer, because it was the 2007 close / 2008 open. To me we tested the yearly candle and we will probably finish the year above, before eventually re-test it next year on the 2nd or 3rd week of January...
Today's close will tell a bit more. The only thing that's for sure is that long complacency is over...
Now if we can't sustain 1.4587, then we'll have a big nicely defined range to play with 1.3972-1.4587.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.