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  • #171,201
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:19am Dec 11, 2009 11:19am
Quoting FX-Petra
If we can close above 4625 or so, I am going to hang with my targets above 1.5100. If not, I am going to start managing my trades from 4625, 4680, and 4750 to get out of them. Let's see where the daily close leaves us. This baby is pretty oversold on a short-term basis. Likley some shorts will take profit before close and help us move up a little. Good trades to all.
To me we have violated the uptrend, no need to pray, hope or anything else it's an objective fact.
But it's not implying that we're in a downtrend yet. Imho we entered neutral trend.

Bulls would have to make a new high above 1.5145, to re-instate the uptrend.

To have a valid downtrend I would like to see a 3 weeks low and then a breach of that new low, that would be the start of a fresh downtrend in eurusd (something on the daily / weekly time frame, not the 5 min chart ).

This low point could be today's low 1.4586 and I'll explain why later.

So for me now on we're in a sideway market that can't be trusted direction wise and that can be traded both way.

Today is marking the day where I stop having only eurusd longs.

Last time I switched strategy was in may.

Now for the 1.4586 low point, why the hell would I think that it could be a low for the next 3 weeks ?

Easy answer, because it was the 2007 close / 2008 open. To me we tested the yearly candle and we will probably finish the year above, before eventually re-test it next year on the 2nd or 3rd week of January...

Today's close will tell a bit more. The only thing that's for sure is that long complacency is over...

Now if we can't sustain 1.4587, then we'll have a big nicely defined range to play with 1.3972-1.4587.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yearly 11-12-2009 17-37-58.png Size: 63 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,202
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:28am Dec 11, 2009 11:28am
Quoting fxswing
To me we have violated the uptrend, no need to pray, hope or anything else it's an objective fact.
But it's not implying that we're in a downtrend yet. Imho we entered neutral trend.

Bulls would have to make a new high above 1.5145, to re-instate the uptrend.

To have a valid downtrend I would like to see a 3 weeks low and then a breach of that new low, that would be the start of a fresh downtrend in eurusd (something on the daily / weekly time frame, not the 5 min chart ).

This low point could be today's low 1.4586 and I'll explain why...
Pretty solid analysis. Don't agree with a few numbers, but overall a solid trading plan!
  • #171,203
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:30am Dec 11, 2009 11:30am
Another clue is to look at USDCHF quarterly chart... nice doji at 1.0347, let see if they can push higher, and prove their strength.

Eurusd quarterly open is at 1.4654.

1.4586-1.4654 is probably an eurusd oversold zone, careful in there don't bet the farm .

If we can close above 1.4654 then it would be clearly bullish imho...

Now time will tell if dollar was really stronger or if it was just a year end short covering / profit taking rally...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 11-12-2009 18-24-19.png Size: 47 KB
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,204
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:37am Dec 11, 2009 11:37am
Quoting MTF Test
I am With you sir, Perfectly said.
I notice that the other USDs hardly moved. The central bank was snooping around with EUR/USD!
  • #171,205
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:44am Dec 11, 2009 11:44am
Another thing to keep on the radar...

Yesterday was the switching day for lots of future contracts and that next week they will stop trading. (the December ones), this occur on the 2nd Thursday of December.

So next Friday is quadruple witching day, where all December contracts ends and need to be replaced with March contracts when people want to keep their positions...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,206
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:51am Dec 11, 2009 11:51am
Quoting fxswing
Another thing to keep on the radar...

Yesterday was the switching day for lots of future contracts and that next week they will stop trading. (the December ones), this occur on the 2nd Thursday of December.

So next Friday is quadruple witching day, where all December contracts ends and need to be replaced with March contracts when people want to keep their positions...
fxswing...can you elaborate what the consequences could mean? thank you in advance.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #171,207
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:55am Dec 11, 2009 11:55am
My biggest indecision area is a close betwwen 1.4600 and 1.4625. This would be above the big fib line and below swing low support. Since this area would create the hardest decision for me... I feel quite sure that is where we will close!!!
  • #171,208
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:56am Dec 11, 2009 11:56am
fx, why is THREE WKS important? or are you referring to the three weeks to the end of the year?

Quoting fxswing
To me we have violated the uptrend, no need to pray, hope or anything else it's an objective fact.
But it's not implying that we're in a downtrend yet. Imho we entered neutral trend.

Bulls would have to make a new high above 1.5145, to re-instate the uptrend.

To have a valid downtrend I would like to see a 3 weeks low and then a breach of that new low, that would be the start of a fresh downtrend in eurusd (something on the daily / weekly time frame, not the 5 min chart ).

This low point could be today's low 1.4586 and I'll explain why later.

So...
  • #171,209
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:00pm Dec 11, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting Duce
fxswing...can you elaborate what the consequences could mean? thank you in advance.
To switch contracts you have to sell/buy your position and buy/sell the new one.
This increase the volatility.
It's often when you see moves that are 100% retraced. So don't be surprised to see 100 or more pips moves being 100% retraced easily from now to next Friday...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,210
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:01pm Dec 11, 2009 12:01pm
There was a correlation if dow rises, it is bearish for US $.

Looks like correlation is broken this week.

Brutal markets always ready to wipe out traders account.
  • #171,211
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:01pm Dec 11, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting sibajnok
For last trade of the week I went long @4600.

I don't expect wonders, it's just seems to be good for scalping 15-20 pips.
trade closed in +20pips. done for today and for the week.
  • #171,212
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:09pm Dec 11, 2009 12:09pm
A little wisdom and analysis from my trading desk. My goal is to help traders become successful.

Regards

Jeremy


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #171,213
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:11pm Dec 11, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
check out other idis like stochastic. this does not happen often.. even JW's parobolic weekly rolled over.. so we should be ok for a few weeks/months maybe years ect..

oh well i tried..
You can lead a horse to water.....
  • #171,214
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:13pm Dec 11, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting coolshades
fx, why is THREE WKS important? or are you referring to the three weeks to the end of the year?
Because to form a new market structure high/low it takes at least 3 candles.
Most of the top/lows are formed by the rejection of a 3 candle range where the 2nd one is often at the extreme, with the exception of 2 candles rejection called "a rail".

What's important is the number 3.
I'm using weeks because I use weekly swing points to gauge the daily trend. And I'm only trading in the direction of the daily trend.

For me a valid swing point is a high/low not violated for at least 3 periods.


Now you know it all
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,215
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:17pm Dec 11, 2009 12:17pm
Quoting fxswing
Because to form a new market structure high/low it takes at least 3 candles.
Most of the top/lows are formed by the rejection of a 3 candle range where the 2nd one is often at the extreme, with the exception of 2 candles rejection called "a rail".

What's important is the number 3.
I'm using weeks because I use weekly swing points to gauge the daily trend. And I'm only trading in the direction of the daily trend.

For me a valid swing point is a high/low not violated for at least 3 periods.


Now you know it all
So technically we are still in uptrend?
  • #171,216
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:18pm Dec 11, 2009 12:18pm
Back from shopping...

I see EUR took some beating and i missed the boat

Again, there was a real force behind in thin market and now there is a huge regular divergence 4 hr tf which points to upside for bulls. Pair is getting close to oversold area. So, if someone still holding long position and feels OK with leverage, wait a retrace, it will come, i would target 1.4713 first
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #171,217
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:18pm Dec 11, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting kingfisher
There was a correlation if dow rises, it is bearish for US $.

Looks like correlation is broken this week.

Brutal markets always ready to wipe out traders account.
Market isn't wiping trader's account!!!
It's poor trading decisions that wipe accounts.


It's not the same thing, there is no fatality... It's all about controlled loses.

I could be summed up like this: He who loses best, wins
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #171,218
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:20pm Dec 11, 2009 12:20pm
hello everyone

Im using a martiangle system today i have got really bad situation. i want to ask you what can i do?? waiting for short uptrend or close all positions with big lose on the JPG you see my picture
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  • #171,219
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:21pm Dec 11, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting fxswing
Market isn't wiping trader's account!!!
It's poor trading decisions that wipe accounts.


It's not the same thing, there is no fatality... It's all about controlled loses.

I could be summed up like this: He who loses best, wins
This is very accurate and true information. It would behoove all traders to listen to this sage advice.

Regards

Jeremy
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #171,220
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:25pm Dec 11, 2009 12:25pm
Quoting quantz
hello everyone

Im using a martiangle system today i have got really bad situation. i want to ask you what can i do?? waiting for short uptrend or close all positions with big lose on the JPG you see my picture
Unfortunately you may have to cut your losses and run..... See my post above that was quoted from a trading guru "FXSwing" and try and take his advice the next time.

There is an old trading adage "The Trend Is Your Friend" and unless you have a proven counter trend system/strategy it is best to trade with the trend.

Good Luck

Jeremy
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
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