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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #187,121
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:43am Dec 11, 2009 12:43am
Quoting manize
Waiting for the compression on H1 to confirm move up ! Aready boarded at 1.6299 !
Seems to be struggling with 6330........
  • #187,122
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:52am Dec 11, 2009 12:52am
I was expecting the Euopean open to push her through 6350's but it hasnt happened (yet).

Maybe we will see a sharp move back into the 6270's as a result?
  • #187,123
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:16am Dec 11, 2009 1:16am
great call ,


Quoting louisripley
I was expecting the Euopean open to push her through 6350's but it hasnt happened (yet).

Maybe we will see a sharp move back into the 6270's as a result?
  • #187,124
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:17am Dec 11, 2009 1:17am
Bought on the dip to 6276 - will get nervous if she goes below 6250
  • #187,125
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:18am Dec 11, 2009 1:18am
Hey Dr D,
What are the MAs you use on your compression chart?
Looks like a 3, 15, 50, 100???
THX!

Quoting fourxtrader
That last move helped close this 15m ema's
and it could slingshot back down to complete
another wave.

Dr. D.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #187,126
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:20am Dec 11, 2009 1:20am
Quoting trabagwe
great call ,
Cheers - wish they were all like that
  • #187,127
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:22am Dec 11, 2009 1:22am
Quoting fourxtrader
That last move helped close this 15m ema's
and it could slingshot back down to complete
another wave.

Dr. D.
Dare I call this that slingshot? May not stay down but
I would suggest that the ema's like to draw together...
more often and more easily on the lower TF's first
to generate the smaller amounts of energy to assist the
higher TF's to reach compression.

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #187,128
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:23am Dec 11, 2009 1:23am
is recovering short
probable phase pullback
  • #187,129
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:26am Dec 11, 2009 1:26am
Quoting XTrade
Hey Dr D,
What are the MAs you use on your compression chart?
Looks like a 3, 15, 50, 100???
THX!
Hi XT,
Any evenly spaced sequence will work because you
are looking at patterns in a combined affect.
I happen to use (6), 18, 36, 54, 72, 90, 108, 126, 144.

Dr. D.
  • #187,130
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:27am Dec 11, 2009 1:27am
Quoting samdani786
Gartley complete on 5 min. I closed my shorts . Now she is gonna go up
Good M.A.E every one> wish you all very very pippin session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp 15.gif Size: 19 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #187,131
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:40am Dec 11, 2009 1:40am
Quoting manize
Waiting for the compression on H1 to confirm move up ! Aready boarded at 1.6299 !
Good move.

I hope you see that compression straightaway... but on higher time frames it seldom happens without following a twisted and sometimes convoluted path unless some catastrophic event occurs. We still might see the 5m compress several times in several directions before the 1h reaches full compression.

And here why...
I'd like to propose a hypothesis / theory:
(A hypothesis is a proposal intended to explain certain facts or observations. It is a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence.) Whereas:
(A theory is a way of making sense of a disturbing situation. )

I don’t find it ‘disturbing’ but rather an interesting and peculiar phenomenon.

(So for all the effort involved, if I put this on a designated thread it may have only one reader... the author, lol. Whereas, posted here some bored soul who patiently awaits the price action they seek will no doubt read the enlightened dribble.)

Notice that evenly spaced multiple moving averages tend to slowly and painstakingly converge together into very tight compression patterns and inevitably they will spring violently apart spewing pips everywhere... usually ending in a unidirectional movement on the charts until the ma's separate so far apart that they can no longer remain in a vacuum-like state and they then gradually begin to pull back together to re-establish a form of equilibrium. And this continues to occur repeatedly on every time frame... but in no clear sequence… or is there? Consider that a form of energy is produced as they compress that eventually and suddenly propels the ma's apart and a re-attraction draws them together again. Still, the drawing together may not be an attraction but again a propulsion due to the result of a lower or higher time frame that has already achieve that compression state releasing its energy to provide the impetice for that movement.

Back to the case of which will fully compress?

The 5m ema's could still draw together first even as the price rises (since ma's are merely a reflection of past data averaged together and they eventually will 'nearly but never quite' catch up to current most immediate PA) or they could compress rapidly if it drops back down. My hypothesis / theory is... the wave-like oscillations of price movement up and down (compressions and separations) in sequence on various time frames can generate tremendous energy to achieve the same overall result... (1h chart ema’s reaching compression) as the price moves back into the 1.6400's - 1.6500's and above.

Should the principle be that full separation in moving averages is an unnatural state like a vacuum (nature abhors a vacuum) and full compression produces a pressure gradient that also cannot be continually maintained, then an oscillation will continue producing waves of movement as the ma's seek an equilibrium from those extremes by drawing together when fully separated and pushing apart when tightly compressed. I consider that the path of least resistance is from smaller time frames working towards the higher... then of course looking at the lower charts to see compression forming... then separating again to transfer energy to the next higher time frame (that is nearest to compression) should cause an up and down movement in the charts (waves) and still result in the eventual drawing together of the ema's in the 1h / 4h / daily and weekly / monthly. There would never be enough energy from a 1m or 5m or 15m compression / separation to ever impact the gathering and then separating of moving averages on a weekly or monthly chart.

Since the lower chart movements are merely a magnification of the larger chart movements, as the charts sit at this moment... the monthly has been converging in a downward direction for ~18 months... the weekly has been converging upward for 8-9 months... the daily in two oscillations has been converging downward for ~4 months... this brings us to the middle time frames as the 30m is converging upward pushing the 1h, followed finally by the 4h. Inorder to generate the energy to move the 30m upward we have the 1m 5m and 15m charts which could each first move downward again to compress and then release.

An interesting phenomenon I think.

And in the hr or so as I wrote this the PA moved back down on those lower timeframes as it more naturally should. Doesn’t always though… does it?

Dr. D.
  • #187,132
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:53am Dec 11, 2009 1:53am
Quoting sibajnok
I placed a buy position @6237.

If this attempt breaking to downside fails, I don't have to worry.
yesterday's trade closed. (+50pips)
  • #187,133
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:56am Dec 11, 2009 1:56am
everybody expects shorts...
  • #187,134
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:01am Dec 11, 2009 2:01am
Im short as of 6315.

I expect it to retest 6185 level, we'll see if she has enough in her.
  • #187,135
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:04am Dec 11, 2009 2:04am
hi. nice article and good thinking, which is in at least 50% of cases true (imo).
(btw my first cable post)
the remaining approx. 50% of "indecision" belongs to watching other markets
to succeed or fail important hurdles.
I'm screening Dow Jones (which reflects S&P 500) and the Euro as well.
If there is a stall in the market, often the Euro is struggling with a daily Pivot
or like last 3 days the Dow is working on its 10300/ 10400 support/ resistance.
Just as talking the Dow finished its slide downtrend moving up.
We will hardly fail daily Pivot on GU atm

cheers
never believe your expectations, trust only your eye sight
  • #187,136
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:06am Dec 11, 2009 2:06am
Quoting joemiami
Im short as of 6315.

I expect it to retest 6185 level, we'll see if she has enough in her.
protective stop hit by that sudden upswing....
  • #187,137
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:10am Dec 11, 2009 2:10am
I'm long from 16290.

First major hurdle is the 16330/40 barrier, if it clears that then I can see 16450 which is my target.
  • #187,138
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:19am Dec 11, 2009 2:19am
Bulls building up now
  • #187,139
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:23am Dec 11, 2009 2:23am
Last Friday's news and close gave the direction to downside. On Monday I jumped into the downtown train, and on Wednesday I banked profits (GBP/USD).

Yesterday, after failed to break to downside I went long on GBP/USD.

I also went long on GPB/AUD yesterday. In my opinion this was the easiest call, just look at the H4 chart, it's a serious level at previous H4 low.


Maybe I should have kept this last one running, but usually I don't leave positions over the weekend, and it's important to keep your own rules.

I've done for the week. 3 trades, all of them successful. (+347pips)


Good Luck all,

sibajnok
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  • #187,140
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:25am Dec 11, 2009 2:25am
We seem to be closing higher and making higher lows. Resistance around the top trend line of the wedge. If we break and close above 1.633 and hold, will be looking to go long. Hopefully to around 1.647
Anyone agree? Price just feels like it wants to go up
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