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  • #169,361
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:40am Dec 7, 2009 10:40am
Quoting psiholog
This is interesting. Now I'd like to see charts of bonds versus job data in previous recessions (data improving included) versus data today. If anyone could post such charts it would be much appreciated, just to see where we stand today compared to the past. It may give hints as to what to expect in the next 6months to 2 years.

Heres a website with many long term charts on it for just about everything....

http://www.chartsrus.com/
  • #169,362
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:43am Dec 7, 2009 10:43am
hey i think economy is bs based on easy money. in case anyone thought i hide my feelings to well. but im not buying below todays high not matter what tf im trading.. stock market and usd can go up together as they always have (excluding when bubble building). piss on the messenger but when a demo has the big house usd is stronger mostly. check out the last 40 years. even when high rates were applied. every recession since gold standard removed, was started with high oil. oil is in every fiber of u.s. economy. the cheaper the better for u.s. economy. i cant ignore this chart or W unless below trendline. its much bigger then the march eu one.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #169,363
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:48am Dec 7, 2009 10:48am
just bought cad. 5016
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #169,364
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:49am Dec 7, 2009 10:49am
The way I see it is they will have to keep interest rates as low as humanly possible for as long as possible. They want people to start spending money and devaluing the currency is an attempt at this: you may as well spend it if it's going to be worthless? In this way they hope to increase capital spending and stimulate real GDP growth. However, all they have currently succeeded in doing is inflating certain asset classes (and making banks richer). They know this but cannot reverse the strategy and this will create volatility for years as players seek yield for the short term. China's domestic market will continue to grow and that of other developng nations and their dependency on the US will diminish. they will diversify out of US debt and into higher yeilding plays over time. The whole balance of wealth is moving out of the US and the west.
  • #169,365
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:51am Dec 7, 2009 10:51am
To be fair, the shorter time frames look a little ominous for longs. On the hourly, we have big drop, consolidation....followed by big drop, and consolidation. Using the KISS priciple, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern! We'll see if we get a move above 1.4900 to negate this set up, or another big drop.
  • #169,366
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:53am Dec 7, 2009 10:53am
Quoting gatorinla
hey i think economy is bs based on easy money. in case anyone thought i hide my feelings to well. but im not buying below todays high not matter what tf im trading.. stock market and usd can go up together as they always have (excluding when bubble building). piss on the messenger but when a demo has the big house usd is stronger mostly. check out the last 40 years. even when high rates were applied. every recession since gold standard removed, was started with high oil. oil is in every fiber of u.s. economy. the cheaper the better for u.s. economy....
i cant ignore it either.... i think decorrelation is starting... if us raises rates sooner than later I think this will fuel it more and dollar will regain long term strength...
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  • #169,367
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:01am Dec 7, 2009 11:01am
Uncle Ben to speak in a few minutes. There you go boys help out the dollar bears maybe?
  • #169,368
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:02am Dec 7, 2009 11:02am
Quoting gatorinla
hey i think economy is bs based on easy money. in case anyone thought i hide my feelings to well. but im not buying below todays high not matter what tf im trading.. stock market and usd can go up together as they always have (excluding when bubble building). piss on the messenger but when a demo has the big house usd is stronger mostly. check out the last 40 years. even when high rates were applied. every recession since gold standard removed, was started with high oil. oil is in every fiber of u.s. economy. the cheaper the better for u.s. economy....
Very interesting. I was checking out the link provided by mfoste (thank you) and I see some interesting correlations. On top of what you noted, the yen seems to have topped out (bubble possibly), bonds overall seem to have hit rock bottom..check out the 2 year for example..euro...as close to the all time high as it can get and the list continues. Commodities as high as ever....I still believe that eventually we will have a repeat of 2008. The only question is when.

Let's not forget, the US is not the only one in the deep end of the blender, the whole world is feeling the pain (especially the Eurozone, forget the nonsense data we are spoonfed daily)..this is a global recession and for the US to portray the weakness of the whole world forever is nonsense.

In the end, the only thing that matters is what the charts say so back to reading PA.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #169,369
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:04am Dec 7, 2009 11:04am
Quoting mfoste1
i cant ignore it either.... i think decorrelation is starting... if us raises rates sooner than later I think this will fuel it more and dollar will regain long term strength...
keep in mind usdx atm is below the critical 75.83... and it still has to get above 76.52 for a clearer picture.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #169,370
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:08am Dec 7, 2009 11:08am
Quoting psiholog
Very interesting. I was checking out the link provided by mfoste (thank you) and I see some interesting correlations. On top of what you noted, the yen seems to have topped out (bubble possibly), bonds overall seem to have hit rock bottom..check out the 2 year for example..euro...as close to the all time high as it can get and the list continues. Commodities as high as ever....I still believe that eventually we will have a repeat of 2008. The only question is when.

Let's not forget, the US is not the only one in the deep end of the blender, the...
kiwi topped weeks ago as well as cad bottom... trendlines were broke then. i watch commodity pairs because they are leaders. euro has little to do with it. oil after 82 could not get up with viagra although it has tried many times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #169,371
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:13am Dec 7, 2009 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
keep in mind usdx atm is below the critical 75.83... and it still has to get above 76.52 for a clearer picture.

Do you know where i can find a good usdx live chart? My broker doesnt have it.
  • #169,372
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:20am Dec 7, 2009 11:20am
While I am not currently trading , this has come to my attention. It is a chart of the Usd/Jpy as the correlation the past few days has been, Usd/Jpy up......Eur/Usd down. Note that the Usd/Jpy was in an upward triangle that broke up. That break out wall is currently being test to determine whether it has become support or not. If it has....up it goes again and down continues the Eur/Usd. Bernanke will dictate the pace I guess.

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #169,373
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:26am Dec 7, 2009 11:26am
Quoting psiholog
While I am not currently trading , this has come to my attention. It is a chart of the Usd/Jpy as the correlation the past few days has been, Usd/Jpy up......Eur/Usd down. Note that the Usd/Jpy was in an upward triangle that broke up. That break out wall is currently being test to determine whether it has become support or not. If it has....up it goes again and down continues the Eur/Usd. Bernanke will dictate the pace I guess.

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The e/j is well ahead in the downtrend compared to u/j. If u/j respects that trendline i think we will see e/u drop more today esp with bernanke speaking....
  • #169,374
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:29am Dec 7, 2009 11:29am
Wow. What an exciting time for the forex market. Something I see in the market that is being overlooked is the recent slow down in German production. My god its far from the expected results. I am inclined to say we are in a long haul for the bulls. The recent fall in the Euro Zone tells me that there is not a solid confirmation for the fall in the Euro/USD. What is going on in the Euro/USD? Non-Farm U.S. pay roll? I don't think so. What is the direct connection to Euro? The amount of people puting in the Sell? This leads me to an intriging questions concerning transparency in the forex market. There needs to be a push for more. Too many times we see these bears and bulls with no connection. Bulls and Bears are part of a natural cycle in our open markets. I am into conspiracy theories. I love them. One I am thinking of is the role the goverment is playing in the forex market. Wouldn't there be a huge motivations for goverment to withhold important information manipulate it etc. If we can scalp the marekt or sail it for pips why cant the goverment form strategies to keep the market in their control.
  • #169,375
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:32am Dec 7, 2009 11:32am
Quoting mfoste1
The e/j is well ahead in the downtrend compared to u/j. If u/j respects that trendline i think we will see e/u drop more today esp with bernanke speaking....
The e/j is the pair I trade when not trading the Eur/Usd. I have been shorting it since market open. Still, it too reached a point of indecision at a heavy S/R level. It unlike the Usd/Jpy was in an uptrend that broke down. Now its possible we can see a retest of that break out wall which may form a double top in the process (what I think will happen), or we may break down hard here. Still...its 50/50 right now but I dont think it gives a clearer picture then the Usd/Jpy. I still say the best course of action while Bernanke talks is to be flat, wait for the next entry at a less risky time...

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #169,376
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:33am Dec 7, 2009 11:33am
Quoting mfoste1
Do you know where i can find a good usdx live chart? My broker doesnt have it.
i looked for one that was once here but its gone now. you will just have to ask around or search it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #169,377
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:33am Dec 7, 2009 11:33am
went long on oil.. stop loss isnt placed yet... could work out (if the blue trendline works)
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Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #169,378
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:35am Dec 7, 2009 11:35am
how do i know when bernanke's speech ends? which site is usually the fastest with the summary of the speech?
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #169,379
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:37am Dec 7, 2009 11:37am
what's going on ? anybody
  • #169,380
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:38am Dec 7, 2009 11:38am
Did Bernanke say something? What's with the spike? I don't have access to his speech..
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