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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #921
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:23pm Dec 1, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting zoli
I thought I share this with you guys. Some are totally aware of this way more than I am . Anyway, as we can see from this table, which is refreshed by Oande weekyl, some time it is not good to trade both EU and AU, sometimes it is fine.

The thing is that EU, AU ang GU do correlate to a degree but not allways and it is difficult to say whether they would do the next week.

A few months ago AU and EU moved on the short term together like real sisters. GU was kind of on her own pretty much all the time.

I hope this is useful for some.

Attachment ...
I have looked into correlation tables and how to take advantage of them... in my opinion the best way to use them is to know which pairs are correlating in a particular trend (say for example EU and AU are in an uptrend) and trade the pair that gives you the best/clearest signals; not necessarily both (or all) pairs.

Regards,

Dan
  • #922
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:29pm Dec 1, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Zol,

I just wanted to make a brief comment on this point. The idea of a 100 pip trailing stop (on E/U and G/U) is that it is big enough to withstand the "market noise" (also known as sucker rallies!). So beware of moving your stop to BE as soon as possible - you should only arrive at BE when price has moved 100 pips in your favour (according to the original rules that is). There are times when I have moved my stop too quickly and found that I have had my position closed prematurely.

Regards,

Dan
Dan,

thanks for this. Actually I do as you just said. As soon as possible meant at 100 pips because initially I let the platform to move to BE and I manage manually after. (I am playing around ATM with moving my SL with every 50 pips - but this is only experimental.)

I kind of appreciate a lot the set rule of management. It helps me a lot. Order filled, trade gets managed. Period.

I already decided not to move pip by pip as that yould not reflect my own management at all. Also I understand the point of noise. I actually just joined to Jacko so really look forward to learning.

Great work this yours!
Kind Regards zol
  • #923
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:31pm Dec 1, 2009 2:31pm
Hi all,

I have finally got my permanent internet connection back online at home so I can try and keep this thread a bit more up to date (trade wise).

I currently have a long open on E/U from 1.4900 (opened last Friday) and a long open on G/U from 1.6450 (opened this morning). No current position on A/U although my bias remains long at this time.

Regards,

Dan
  • #924
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:33pm Dec 1, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting zoli
Dan,

thanks for this. Actually I do as you just said. As soon as possible meant at 100 pips because initially I let the platform to move to BE and I manage manually after. (I am playing around ATM with moving my SL with every 50 pips - but this is only experimental.)

I kind of appreciate a lot the set rule of management. It helps me a lot. Order filled, trade gets managed. Period.

I already decided not to move pip by pip as that yould not reflect my own management at all. Also I understand the point of noise. I actually just joined to Jacko...
Good stuff! Moving the stop 50 pips at a time is a suitable strategy too. Good luck with learning... the good news is that this method is very simple and so long as you don't over-think things you should do ok!

Regards,

Dan
  • #925
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:36pm Dec 1, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi all,

I have finally got my permanent internet connection back online at home so I can try and keep this thread a bit more up to date (trade wise).

I currently have a long open on E/U from 1.4900 (opened last Friday) and a long open on G/U from 1.6450 (opened this morning). No current position on A/U although my bias remains long at this time.

Regards,

Dan
Dan,

just wondering about the way you trade. I stil understand that you take your position in the direction of the daily trend if trend identified am I correct? So for example no CT trade by yourself?

I am working on that only. I understand that you trade your own style (the style I actually like).
Kind Regards zol
  • #926
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:39pm Dec 1, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting zoli
Dan,

just wondering about the way you trade. I stil understand that you take your position in the direction of the daily trend if trend identified am I correct? So for example no CT trade by yourself?

I am working on that only. I understand that you trade your own style (the style I actually like).
Hi,

That ok I don't mind answering questions! Yes you are correct that I only trade in the direction of the trend - I try not to take CT trades. The only thing I would add is that I trade off of H4 charts (which are generally heading the same direction as the dailies).

Regards,

Dan
  • #927
  • Dec 1, 2009 5:00pm Dec 1, 2009 5:00pm
Hello guys,

Several people here said that 100 pips SL is usually enough to cover market noise. This is true for EU, but with GU can be really madness sometimes. During last 3 months, noises on were even 300 pips. This pair is more volatile and everybody should take great care. I personally lost a lot with GU so I am speaking from experience. Just a friendly advice
  • #928
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:07am Dec 2, 2009 5:07am
Quoting fxacs
Hello guys,

Several people here said that 100 pips SL is usually enough to cover market noise. This is true for EU, but with GU can be really madness sometimes. During last 3 months, noises on were even 300 pips. This pair is more volatile and everybody should take great care. I personally lost a lot with GU so I am speaking from experience. Just a friendly advice
Hi Fxacs,

I agree that GU is more volatile than EU but 100 pips should be enough. If you take a look at a H1 chart (just for this exercise) you should see that GU moves in 100 pip increments pretty well; the market noise referred to are the minor ups and downs that occur along the way.

I think the problem with GU is that there has been no real trend like there has been with EU and AU so trading this way will not work like it should until a proper trend returns. I am still keen on a bullish trend so I will be looking to get in a buy at a good discount until it is proven that the bullish trend that previously existed has changed.

Regards,

Dan
  • #929
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:21am Dec 2, 2009 6:21am
Dan,

where were your fibs for this?


Quoting DanUK
Hi all,

and a long open on G/U from 1.6450 (opened this morning).

Regards,

Dan
  • #930
  • Dec 2, 2009 7:15am Dec 2, 2009 7:15am
Quoting coolshades
Dan,

where were your fibs for this?
Hi Coolshades,

My bigger picture fib was drawn from the high of 13/10 to the low of 16/11 which gave the 50% level at 1.6300. This is also an area of key support/resistance so this is where I was looking as a possible area to trade from. As price hit 1.6300 it bounced up and I took a trade from 1.6350 on 27/11. That move went up to just below 1.6600 before retracing and closing me out at 1.6450 for 100 pips.

My next fib was drawn from the highs and lows of that move giving me a possible trade in the 1.6400 - 1.6450 area. Price bounced off of 1.6400 twice before I took the trade (caution due to the current range) and I entered long at 1.6450. That trade closed today (unfortunately a little too early, but one of those things!) at 1.6550 for 100 pips.

Regards,

Dan
  • #931
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:09am Dec 2, 2009 10:09am
Hi Dan, I have been reading your thread, as well as being a follower of jacko's method. I have a question, how did you draw your lines to take a buy at 1.49 for the eur/usd?

thanks!!!
  • #932
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:29am Dec 2, 2009 11:29am
Waiting for a strong correction in e/u.

My point of interest is around 1.4900.

Taking into account the dailies TL, the RN, the fib 50ish.

What do you guys and gals see?

Any thought on this?

Pip
  • #933
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:48am Dec 2, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Pipalicious
Waiting for a strong correction in e/u.

My point of interest is around 1.4900.

Taking into account the dailies TL, the RN, the fib 50ish.

What do you guys and gals see?

Any thought on this?

Pip
I think that the following levels are interresting (+/- some to a round number):

EU: 4971, 4885, 4812
AU: 9118, 8946
GU: 6536, 6482, 6300

These are all 50% levels and potential zones of interrest on my charts.

I wonder whether they make any sence...
Kind Regards zol
  • #934
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:56am Dec 2, 2009 11:56am
Quoting artieboy
Hi Dan, I have been reading your thread, as well as being a follower of jacko's method. I have a question, how did you draw your lines to take a buy at 1.49 for the eur/usd?

thanks!!!
Hi,

Please see the attached charts. The first is the daily trendline (for guidance) and the second shows the H4 trendline and fib placement (to trade off).

Regards,


Dan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-12-02_EU_Daily.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-12-02_EU_H4.png Size: 40 KB
  • #935
  • Dec 3, 2009 11:15am Dec 3, 2009 11:15am
Hey guys, what do you think of the gbp/jpy as a short. It has a 146 as 50% fib. Long term trend is down.......
  • #936
  • Dec 3, 2009 11:25am Dec 3, 2009 11:25am
Hi Dan,
I noticed you tend to redraw your fib lines, after a trade has been taken.
For example, after a trade on the GBP/USD you would redraw the line taken from the highs and lows, after a trade. Has this been your approach for all pairs?

So guys, if i were to redraw the latest line, mine would be 1.6500 for the GBP/USD, same with u guys?
  • #937
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:51pm Dec 3, 2009 12:51pm
Thanks for the Charts Dan!

Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Please see the attached charts. The first is the daily trendline (for guidance) and the second shows the H4 trendline and fib placement (to trade off).

Regards,


Dan
  • #938
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:11pm Dec 3, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting artieboy
Hey guys, what do you think of the gbp/jpy as a short. It has a 146 as 50% fib. Long term trend is down.......
Looks a fair entry to me. @ 50% fib and resistance level. I would agree trend is down, however ultimately the pair is current stuck in a range between 139 - 163. Daily is also beginning to show resistance, small but noticeable pin. Could be worth a short, however I don't usually trade this pair, so i'm not overly familiar with it, just what I can see.


Josh
  • #939
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:07pm Dec 3, 2009 3:07pm
Here are my fibs for the eur/usd....any comments?
I just took the latest swing up....the closest round number seemed to be around 1.5000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mctrade.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #940
  • Dec 4, 2009 10:42am Dec 4, 2009 10:42am
Quoting artieboy
Hi Dan,
I noticed you tend to redraw your fib lines, after a trade has been taken.
For example, after a trade on the GBP/USD you would redraw the line taken from the highs and lows, after a trade. Has this been your approach for all pairs?

So guys, if i were to redraw the latest line, mine would be 1.6500 for the GBP/USD, same with u guys?
Hi,

Yes 1.6500 is right for the most recent move up that I would measure however I would just note that G/U is still not in a real trend so the 50% "tool" is not so useful.

With regards to redrawing fibs - it depends if a move exceeds the high or the low of the previous move. So I would keep my original fib measurement in place until that high (in an uptrend) is exceeded. Does that make any sense!? However I do also measure the move (even if it hasn't exceeded the previous high (or low in a downtrend)) with the fib retracement tool just to see where the possible 50% level would be.

Hope that helps!

Regards,


Dan
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