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  • #167,801
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:37pm Dec 2, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Have you looked at a Daily Chart? Short E/U has destroyed many accounts since April. Risk is to the Upside, big time. I may scalp a little bit from time to time (like near 5150), but anything else is big time risk. For a position swingtrade, I would not touch an E/U short with a 10 ft. pole. If you are shorting, you are likley sclaping and Daytrading. I try to avoid that circumstance.... as I have no idea what the direction the next 100 pips will be, and no one else does either. Cost me many thousands to arrive at that conculusion.

Regards...
I think it all depends on trading style. When you are a swingtrader, you like to have large stops and a general overview of economic/technical conditions. Not only that, but you are willing to wait a very long time for a position to come to fruition. This is a good strategy for you because it suits your personality. For individuals such as myself, its the exact opposite where I'm 75% sure of the potential for the next 100 pips but anything more then that is total assumption. As a daytrader (rarely hold a position longer then a few days), I cant see beyond what the market is doing now as you can as that involves alot of knowledge about what the big guys are doing, as well as what fundamentals are relevant. Sure the trend has been up since 1.25 and a long from those levels would net 2500 pips profit if it was open now, but we are talking about more then 9 months here. Thats roughly 250-300 days. Now my trading style commands 50-100pips per day so deducting weekends..lets say around 200trading days. 200days times 50-100pips per day...lets just say the pip gain is mind boggling if you think about it. While I cannot do that consistently just yet...I am close.

But yeah...in the end its all about what you like to do and while 100pips for you is noise...for me (and others) 100pips is the only clear picture, it is alot easier in my opinion to analyze pa in the present then trying to analyze pa many days from now. Having said that, swing trading is indeed less risky (except for last year) and daytrading involves the need for a very solid strategy with optimal entry points.

Just my 2 cents...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #167,802
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:51pm Dec 2, 2009 12:51pm
Anyway though there are causes behind price stall I will continue shorts for tp set previously to 1.5007 & may carried out for nextday.
I see all bear continuation patterns all over the tf & price may even break 1.5 to lower other level.expecting 1.5050-77 retracement may even happen .
As i enetred again in the market & so I will show all logic in my favour & so never trust me & please others follow the own strategy.

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #167,803
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:53pm Dec 2, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
i bought at 34.. we will c.. t sl.. just shorted cad.. also.. 498... stop loss on both just a few pips.. will set to be shortly..
There's your break Gator....you're likely clear to around 1.5063...we'll see.
  • #167,804
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:00pm Dec 2, 2009 1:00pm
hang on.. may go up now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,805
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:08pm Dec 2, 2009 1:08pm
  •  bdamata
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Life is a learning process, FX too | 10 Posts
What just happened?
  • #167,806
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:09pm Dec 2, 2009 1:09pm
<quote> Fed hawk Jeffery Lacker is on the wires discussing the US deficit. He says one cannot underplay how big a challenge US deficits pose. He says the Fed will not allow inflation to increase to solve the budget problem. </unquote> Or simply technical/verbal noise if you prefer
  • #167,807
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:10pm Dec 2, 2009 1:10pm
1h and 4h still says sell.
  • #167,808
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:11pm Dec 2, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting psiholog
I think it all depends on trading style. When you are a swingtrader, you like to have large stops and a general overview of economic/technical conditions. Not only that, but you are willing to wait a very long time for a position to come to fruition. This is a good strategy for you because it suits your personality. For individuals such as myself, its the exact opposite where I'm 75% sure of the potential for the next 100 pips but anything more then that is total assumption. As a daytrader (rarely hold a position longer then a few days), I cant...
I wish you all the best, psi. I'll just say that the trail is littered with broken accounts who overleveraged and thought they could predict short term market gyrations. Some of my former accounts are included in that trail of tears. I hope you can take profits out that way. If you can, over a period of several years, you should be damn proud.... you are one of the gifted! I just cannot do it, and I know I can't. Spent 4 years trying. Yes, I had some great success, but also gut wenching failure. I hope you can skip past some of those rocky roads.

Regards,
  • #167,809
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:12pm Dec 2, 2009 1:12pm
  •  bdamata
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Life is a learning process, FX too | 10 Posts
any 1 thinking getting short now?
  • #167,810
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:15pm Dec 2, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting alvelino
1h and 4h still says sell.
From a pure PA perspective, the 1H says "anyone looking to short is late to the party....I'm due for some retracement," and the 4H says...you're late to the party, but there might be some to the downside...but...you want to enter right after a longbar?".....just my 2c.
  • #167,811
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:18pm Dec 2, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I wish you all the best, psi. I'll just say that the trail is littered with broken accounts who overleveraged and thought they could predict short term market gyrations. Some of my former accounts are included in that trail of tears. I hope you can take profits out that way. If you can, over a period of several years, you should be damn proud.... you are one of the gifted! I just cannot do it, and I know I can't. Spent 4 years trying. Yes, I had some great success, but also gut wenching failure. I hope you can skip past some of those rocky...
I think you just touched on the key issues....overleveraging, poor money managment, not scaling in (going "all in" at initial entry), and failing to take partial profits and move stops to BE+. It wasn't until I was taught these principles that I became consistent....
  • #167,812
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:19pm Dec 2, 2009 1:19pm
Quoting PriceVolume
From a pure PA perspective, the 1H says "anyone looking to short is late to the party....I'm due for some retracement," and the 4H says...you're late to the party, but there might be some to the downside...but...you want to enter right after a longbar?".....just my 2c.
I agree with ur view.
  • #167,813
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:23pm Dec 2, 2009 1:23pm
(new to board and first post)

Just read a comment on MarketWatch that stated dollar continues to fall against Euro after release of Beige Book!!! I wonder what chart they're looking at!!!??? Maybe they're looking at the wrong day!!!! There has been approx a 10 pip move after the release but that has been down and has been down all morning.
  • #167,814
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:28pm Dec 2, 2009 1:28pm
Thats' why u have to become a longer term trader and not have a short term outlook. Short term pains can last a long time and change the traders emotional condition. I have been saying for a while to become a swing trader and not worry about these sudden spikes. No. I dont have millions to whitstand a long drawdown. There is draw down yes no doubt but u have to learn to hedge them with other pairs or have a good entry and take profits off the table
  • #167,815
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:30pm Dec 2, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I wish you all the best, psi. I'll just say that the trail is littered with broken accounts who overleveraged and thought they could predict short term market gyrations. Some of my former accounts are included in that trail of tears. I hope you can take profits out that way. If you can, over a period of several years, you should be damn proud.... you are one of the gifted! I just cannot do it, and I know I can't. Spent 4 years trying. Yes, I had some great success, but also gut wenching failure. I hope you can skip past some of those rocky roads....
What I am about to say is not to brag, it is merely to point out my weaknesses. Here is a typical week in the trading life of psiholog in the past. Place a trade, 50 or 100pip stop loss ...was a win for 30pips +. Second trade, same result. Third trade, same result. Fifth trade, a whopping 150pip winner (Eur/Jpy for such gains). 15th trade, woo im so good at this, there is just no way I can lose. I am a god in the markets. After about 20 winners, there is a trade that starts going against me usually because I was being greedy and wanted to make a few extra pips (sell at a low or buy at a high). I refuse to believe I am wrong so I extend stop loss. Position continues against me, I extend it some more. Before I know it, I used to be -500pips on that one position simply because I was over confident, cocky and arrogant, and refused to be wrong. My greatest asset, my psychological approach to the markets which I consider amazing by all standards turns into my greatest weakness.

That is the Psiholog of old. Come January when I start trading with a reasonable sized account, that will be my challenge, to overcome defects in my judgement as I used to do in the past. As to whether I can consistently make pips, there is no doubt about that.

I still find it weird and ironic that my problem is to win too much when for most its the opposite. Then again, being in this position (and if anyone else out there is the same way), just know your trading methods are rock solid and great, its you, the individual who needs work, self-control.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #167,816
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:36pm Dec 2, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting PriceVolume
I think you just touched on the key issues....overleveraging, poor money managment, not scaling in (going "all in" at initial entry), and failing to take partial profits and move stops to BE+. It wasn't until I was taught these principles that I became consistent....
One other issue I think is many people have a tendency to jump in too early. Set a target entry and wait for the market to come to you. Whether you trade short or long term depends on your models, methods, etc. I have about 60% accuracy on a daily basis, but hell Las Vegas makes billions on 51%
  • #167,817
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:38pm Dec 2, 2009 1:38pm
Bernanke will print money till we run out of trees.- Jim Rogers.

Feds balance sheet in 2006 when Bernanke came was over 500 billion dollars, now it is over 2 trillion,

The treasuries purchased from quantitave easing, go on the balance sheet correct.

If so why don't they call all these other measure he has been running from the fall of 2007 quantitative easing.
  • #167,818
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:40pm Dec 2, 2009 1:40pm
psiholog I absolutley agree with you. I have been preaching the same on this forum for a long while. Nobody seems to listen
  • #167,819
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:42pm Dec 2, 2009 1:42pm
im in several pairs and judging from them 5034 may not hold. but then eu writes its own script. but its got lower pressure atm.. depending on hold or not a got some levels on chart with the next at 5007.. i did a stf predictive and came up with 4971/86 the closest i got on a bigger chart is 4953 or 50%# 4980
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,820
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:51pm Dec 2, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting psiholog
I still find it weird and ironic that my problem is to win too much when for most its the opposite. Then again, being in this position (and if anyone else out there is the same way), just know your trading methods are rock solid and great, its you, the individual who needs work, self-control.
This is always the key realization.

I have both upper and lower limits set in my trading plan. A certain number of losses or percentage lost in a day, and I'm out - but same on the upside. Upside daily limit is 6%, doesn't get hit very often. Weekly is not set but if I am up over 15% in a week then I tend to want to forget about trading. There's more to life, after all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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