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  • #901
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:59am Nov 26, 2009 8:59am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I know you've already discussed this with coolshades and I think you have come to the right conclusions.

However I did just want to confirm what coolshades said in that just because we haven't seen a lower high (or for example if a trendline was broken) I wouldn't call a change of trend until our chart has shown that to be true. A/U is in a clear uptrend so the safest bet is to stick with that... until proven otherwise.

My A/U trade closed today for +100 pips and I am considering a re-entry at 0.9200.

Regards,

Dan
i know the reversal I mentioned isn't confirmed. what i wanted to do is to mention there might be a possible trend reversal cos from the pic i drew a rising TL connecting the lows a few hours ago. when there were some bounces off the TL plus the 50% fibo region, i took a long trade at .9224
but later i exited when the pair broke clean through and below.
my TL may be wrong of course.
(the light blue is my daily support line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #902
  • Nov 26, 2009 9:47am Nov 26, 2009 9:47am
Dan,

wrt to lower high, lower low, higher high, higher low or whatever, surely a trend will not change based on ONE daily bar? unless that daily bar is a few 1000 points! and even then probably not! i lost my cool because that is what i thought herzog implied.

in my limited experience, we too easily use the word trend. imho a trend lasts for months and years not a few days or weeks and a trend change happens over months not over a day or days. during the trend change period there will be ranging markets, upward movements, downward movements whatever.

have attached a monthly chart of eurusd and have highlighted the trend change periods - all from my learner's perspective ofcourse.



Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I know you've already discussed this with coolshades and I think you have come to the right conclusions.

However I did just want to confirm what coolshades said in that just because we haven't seen a lower high (or for example if a trendline was broken) I wouldn't call a change of trend until our chart has shown that to be true. A/U is in a clear uptrend so the safest bet is to stick with that... until proven otherwise.

My A/U trade closed today for +100 pips and I am considering a re-entry at 0.9200.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_trend_change.JPG Size: 120 KB
  • #903
  • Nov 26, 2009 10:53am Nov 26, 2009 10:53am
Quoting DanUK
Hi ST,

Yes it is still the same method (although some discussion in the earlier days included references to indicators that I have since ditched). The first post outlines how I trade really.

Regards,

Dan
thanks dan, ive just started trading with Jacko but i will be around here a lot as wish to trade more often.

BTW where do i find JohnDoes Journal as i know u started there?
" Dont wait for your boat to come in ..... swim out and meet it"
  • #904
  • Nov 26, 2009 10:58am Nov 26, 2009 10:58am
Quoting coolshades
Dan,

wrt to lower high, lower low, higher high, higher low or whatever, surely a trend will not change based on ONE daily bar? unless that daily bar is a few 1000 points! and even then probably not! i lost my cool because that is what i thought herzog implied.

in my limited experience, we too easily use the word trend. imho a trend lasts for months and years not a few days or weeks and a trend change happens over months not over a day or days. during the trend change period there will be ranging markets, upward movements, downward movements...
Yes that's right - I will make further comment on this tomorrow as I've got to shoot out now but I agree - when I talk about trend I talk about the trend that is likely to last for weeks to months to years; not something that changes in a day but something that could take weeks to change. My trading analysis for trend is very simple and I will clarify this tomorrow.
  • #905
  • Nov 26, 2009 5:40pm Nov 26, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting speedtrip
thanks dan, ive just started trading with Jacko but i will be around here a lot as wish to trade more often.

BTW where do i find JohnDoes Journal as i know u started there?
JohnDoe's journal is here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=140561
Rule for 77cross MA are in pdf at bottom of first post.
  • #906
  • Nov 26, 2009 6:42pm Nov 26, 2009 6:42pm
Quoting coolshades
Dan,

wrt to lower high, lower low, higher high, higher low or whatever, surely a trend will not change based on ONE daily bar? unless that daily bar is a few 1000 points! and even then probably not! i lost my cool because that is what i thought herzog implied.

in my limited experience, we too easily use the word trend. imho a trend lasts for months and years not a few days or weeks and a trend change happens over months not over a day or days. during the trend change period there will be ranging markets, upward movements, downward movements whatever.

have...
I should explain what my trading style is about. Yes I follow Dan's system in keeping with the main trend and trading along with it. Every morning I look at the D first and then the 4H and the 1H. The D chart is where I look to sell/buy. 4H is my confirmation(not always). 1H is where i look to enter. but there is no hard and fast rules.

When I looked at the AU yesterday morning, my reaction was to enter in a long position but I could not find any set-up. so I waited for a correction which i drew from the 24th low to 25th high. A TL(dark blue) was drawn and I could see support which is just near the 50% fibo, adding to my confirmation that I should go long. If that temporary tL was broken I would have exited manually, immediately. And the pair did break through convincingly.

When that happened, I looked at the 4H chart and noted that it might be making head and shoulders formation. So a lot of questions was racing through my mind. Is it a correction to the support line or might it be a reversal. At this point, this was when I made my posts on FF.

coolshades could have asked why I made tht post instead of jumping on me like that(no offence)

I do understand a trend could not change so suddenly just like that. what i am pointing out is based on what I see on my charts. my view only lasts as long as the time taken for the market to change and when it change, so do my view.
  • #907
  • Nov 26, 2009 8:47pm Nov 26, 2009 8:47pm
i think what herzog21 saying is more accurately called short term retracement/correction than possible trend change. Dan already explain it that we haven't see LL and LH. Maybe for those who trade based on PA its a clear bearing engulfing pattern but i don't use it for my trade.
i'm looking for a possible trade on EU @4800-4850, GU@6300 and AU @9000-8950.
  • #908
  • Nov 27, 2009 2:40am Nov 27, 2009 2:40am
fundamentally in my inexperienced opinion, nothing has changed. $ is still in the crapper, so is Ł, Euro is seen as a safer haven compared to the two. until the US economy significantly turns for the better and unemployment starts reducing, i dont see any material change.

i think yesterday and today was a result of dubai and BoJ trying to rein in Yen.

i am looking to buy and we have fantastic buying opportunities now.

Quoting carrot_yuli
i think what herzog21 saying is more accurately called short term retracement/correction than possible trend change. Dan already explain it that we haven't see LL and LH. Maybe for those who trade based on PA its a clear bearing engulfing pattern but i don't use it for my trade.
i'm looking for a possible trade on EU @4800-4850, GU@6300 and AU @9000-8950.
  • #909
  • Nov 27, 2009 4:44am Nov 27, 2009 4:44am
Quoting coolshades

i am looking to buy and we have fantastic buying opportunities now.
agreed, long on eu at 1.4850.. bit wary of volatility and friday, so have halved position size... will look to get some more early next week, but I think the market has over-reacted to the dubai world news and was concerned we might "correct" back quickly and continue north.
  • #910
  • Nov 29, 2009 7:12pm Nov 29, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting coolshades

dan's system is very very very simple.

check trend on weekly, daily and h4 charts

based on long term trend, drill down to h4 charts

draw trend lines on h4 charts

draw fib from most recent swing high to most recent swing low.

it will be good if the 50% fib coincides iwth a s/r level

check how prices on h1 react to 50%fib, rounded off to nearest XX.50, or XX.00

enter if price closes on or around XX.50 or XX.00 in favour of trend.

as simple as that
Hi DanUK and coolshades

I am glad to come this thread partly because I prefer to trade on H4/D due to my limited time in work and at home.

Sorry English is not my mother language.

I already finished reading this thread. The summary trading method is helpful to me as a newbie.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Isn't that we have to draw support and resistance lines on Weekly and Daily before going down to H4 and H1?

The drawing of Fibo is on H4 but not Daily and not H1?

Please advise my understanding. A lot more to learn from you.

Thank you so much.

Please keep up the gr8 work.
  • #911
  • Nov 29, 2009 7:15pm Nov 29, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting DanUK
Yes that's right - I will make further comment on this tomorrow as I've got to shoot out now but I agree - when I talk about trend I talk about the trend that is likely to last for weeks to months to years; not something that changes in a day but something that could take weeks to change. My trading analysis for trend is very simple and I will clarify this tomorrow.
Hi DanUK

Can't wait to read your further advice on "the trend trading method"
Many thanks.
Have a gr8 pipping week
  • #912
  • Nov 30, 2009 2:43am Nov 30, 2009 2:43am
Hi DanUK

Pls. offer your comment on the attached image G/U.

A pin bar retraced from Fibo 50 is seen.

I can't decide to take an entry because the major trend is UP BUT the candles are heading DOWN since a week ago.

Is it good to long now? or?

Kindly advise. Thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-u.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #913
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:12am Nov 30, 2009 5:12am
Quoting fxmatahari
Hi DanUK and coolshades

I am glad to come this thread partly because I prefer to trade on H4/D due to my limited time in work and at home.

Sorry English is not my mother language.

I already finished reading this thread. The summary trading method is helpful to me as a newbie.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

Isn't that we have to draw support and resistance lines on Weekly and Daily before going down to H4 and H1?

The drawing of Fibo is on H4 but not Daily and not H1?

Please advise my understanding. A lot more to learn...
Hello & welcome to the thread,

I don't tend to draw my trendlines off of a weekly chart but I do sometimes draw a trendline off of a daily chart just as a guide to the bigger picture. I also use the weekly chart to draw major horizontal levels of support and resistance.

I trade off of the H4 chart so this is the chart that I use to draw the trendlines that I will trade off of - it is also the chart I use to draw my fib retracements.

You don't actually need to use an H1 chart at all - I occasionally look at it but only after I have done my analysis on the weekly/daily/H4 charts. Dropping down to an H4 chart is enough to trade off of.

Hope that helps. Any other questions, please feel free to ask.

Regards,


Dan
  • #914
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:17am Nov 30, 2009 5:17am
Quoting fxmatahari
Hi DanUK

Pls. offer your comment on the attached image G/U.

A pin bar retraced from Fibo 50 is seen.

I can't decide to take an entry because the major trend is UP BUT the candles are heading DOWN since a week ago.

Is it good to long now? or?

Kindly advise. Thank you.
Hi,

I wouldn't be happy about going long at the moment. I have a long on from 1.6350 after price bounced off the 50% level at 1.6300 but price is too far away from there to take a trade at the moment. Price may well be heading back down to the 1.6300 area at the moment and if so it will be worth watching how price reacts when it gets there... but I must stress that G/U is still in a bit of a mess at the moment so trade with caution!

Regards,

Dan
  • #915
  • Nov 30, 2009 1:43pm Nov 30, 2009 1:43pm
Quoting carrot_yuli
thanks for your concern and advise. Now i'm looking for my own trade, build my confidence and trade the plan.
, do you only trade currencies?
Hello Yuli, Yes I'm profitable now but it took me 6 years to learn that simple works. I trade some stocks too. That's one the things I like about simple, its robust ..pretty much if it moves you can trade it. I like currencies because they trend so much, have no up tick rule , trade 24/6, massive liquidity, no pattern day trader rule so if your wrong on a trade you can get out fast. Plenty of buying power so multiple positions isn't a problem. ... you can size your positions exactly how you need them.

Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #916
  • Dec 1, 2009 5:38am Dec 1, 2009 5:38am
To share my trade.

I entered on the 50% retracement of previous up swing.
I am already at BE and I anticipate dificulties at the two indicated golden rectangle. By this I mean the market may as well reverse.

The first rectangle is lesser concern to me as it is a confluence of a minor high and an old trendline which proved not to be valid any more.

The second recangle indicates a down sloping trend line, a potentially mre signifficant formal lower high and a bottom of a "pin bar".

Either way I do not exit my position just yet as I risked 100 pips to get here. I still bet that the cable may turn out as up trending market.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MYVSA_096.gif Size: 26 KB
Kind Regards zol
  • #917
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:04am Dec 1, 2009 6:04am
Quoting zoli
To share my trade.

I entered on the 50% retracement of previous up swing.
I am already at BE and I anticipate dificulties at the two indicated golden rectangle. By this I mean the market may as well reverse.

The first rectangle is lesser concern to me as it is a confluence of a minor high and an old trendline which proved not to be valid any more.

The second recangle indicates a down sloping trend line, a potentially mre signifficant formal lower high and a bottom of a "pin bar".

Either way I do not exit my position just yet as...

Hi zoli,

Nice charts mate.

Remember not to over think your trade ONCE your are in it.

Plan your trade BEFORE entering and stick to your own rules.

Since the goal of the method is to use a trailing stop, that is my only peronal concern right now. IŽll move my stop up accordingly and try to reduce discretion to the minimum needed.

It can work either way. You could take profits at the area you are looking at, or you can stick to the tsl. Remember price could just break through and make a new high. And the methods edge is its simplicity along with the tsl.

My 2 cents.

PS: Im also long from 1.6450.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 45 KB
  • #918
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:17am Dec 1, 2009 6:17am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi zoli,

Nice charts mate.

Remember not to over think your trade ONCE your are in it.

Plan your trade BEFORE entering and stick to your own rules.

Since the goal of the method is to use a trailing stop, that is my only peronal concern right now. IŽll move my stop up accordingly and try to reduce discretion to the minimum needed.

It can work either way. You could take profits at the area you are looking at, or you can stick to the tsl. Remember price could just break through and make a new high. And the methods edge is its simplicity along with...
Thanks Pipalicious,

I agree on the planning. I did actually think ahead and have been looking to entrer ever since that horribly strong Daily bar appeared on Friday to finish (potentially) the Dubai induced sell off. My very most concer was:

find an entry at some 50%
trail the stopp to BE as soon as posible
See what happens after

I am learning to trade but I feel that this approach of taking time and relax, focus on few pairs and trend trade them - looks like perfect to me. That is why I started to practice it.

I really like and respect the traders here on FF so look forward to a long common fun, development and a great business!
Kind Regards zol
  • #919
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:41am Dec 1, 2009 6:41am
I thought I share this with you guys. Some are totally aware of this way more than I am . Anyway, as we can see from this table, which is refreshed by Oande weekyl, some time it is not good to trade both EU and AU, sometimes it is fine.

The thing is that EU, AU ang GU do correlate to a degree but not allways and it is difficult to say whether they would do the next week.

A few months ago AU and EU moved on the short term together like real sisters. GU was kind of on her own pretty much all the time.

I hope this is useful for some.

Attached Image
Kind Regards zol
  • #920
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:21pm Dec 1, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting zoli
trail the stopp to BE as soon as posible
Hi Zol,

I just wanted to make a brief comment on this point. The idea of a 100 pip trailing stop (on E/U and G/U) is that it is big enough to withstand the "market noise" (also known as sucker rallies!). So beware of moving your stop to BE as soon as possible - you should only arrive at BE when price has moved 100 pips in your favour (according to the original rules that is). There are times when I have moved my stop too quickly and found that I have had my position closed prematurely.

Regards,

Dan
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