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  • #165,161
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:31pm Nov 24, 2009 3:31pm
Usually firms are more reluctant to pile in when they have the positions they need, no one willing to buy dollars makes it harder too.
  • #165,162
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:31pm Nov 24, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
Everyone is so pessimistic on dollar of banks that have reported.

JPMorgan said it will reach 1.62 against Euro in 2010
DB targets 1.60
Goldman Sachs targets 1.55
Standered Chartered sees 1.60
HSBC sees 1.60 by year end
Credit Suisse sees it weakening as does BNP Paribas
Barclays sees Euro strong very potentially new high
Normally when everyone is on one side of boat its time to get on other.
Not sure about other big players like UBS, Citi and RBS

However I know citi is optimistic on Euro against pound so i guess they are also against dollar....
So we will be rich?
  • #165,163
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:33pm Nov 24, 2009 3:33pm
Decision time for the bears among us, 4960 is the decison maker. I see it piercing.


Then again what do I know....
  • #165,164
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:34pm Nov 24, 2009 3:34pm
the longer it fails to break this area, and if certain things in other places occur Euro could fall. not saying it will.
  • #165,165
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:37pm Nov 24, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting Qqe
Wow, so you are one of 0.1%.....
i used to win 25% of my account monthly... but these days are over

now i win little, but i win
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #165,166
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:41pm Nov 24, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
the longer it fails to break this area, and if certain things in other places occur Euro could fall. not saying it will.

Yup, the question is do I take 21 pips on a handful of lots or do I see what happens... Countertrending is fun.


Answer on a post card please,


Actually don't bother, I make my own decisions.
  • #165,167
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:49pm Nov 24, 2009 3:49pm
Lovely, let's see where she goes from here.
  • #165,168
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:52pm Nov 24, 2009 3:52pm
The next thing holding back a move down is a TL on the M15 around 4943. We'll see how she reacts when we get closer.


This may turn into my personal trading journal with no intention, just wanted to share my thinking of this short as most here seemed to have ridiculed me earlier for mentioning it.

23 pips in the green so far, more to follow? For signal readers, Stoch is bottomed out and reversing on the M15, however PA does not support that. Don't you love these lagging indicators.....


Let's see where this hourly closes.
  • #165,169
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:53pm Nov 24, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting cloggie
Lovely, let's see where she goes from here.
i see first stop around 4922
then if downtrend continous another stop i see is around 4877
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #165,170
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:59pm Nov 24, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting CzechTrade
i see first stop around 4922
then if downtrend continous another stop i see is around 4877

Let's not forget the pivot.
  • #165,171
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:00pm Nov 24, 2009 4:00pm
Don't worry about that spike, NY close. boys taking profit so they can go to the pub. We may see a bit of a follow through caused by mis informed buyers, we'll see shortly.
  • #165,172
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:01pm Nov 24, 2009 4:01pm
I TP at 4960. I don't see a big downmove in the works at this hour of the day. 4967 is like a magnet. Watch for consolidation around this level til later tonight.
  • #165,173
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:04pm Nov 24, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting stevefx
I TP at 4960. I don't see a big downmove in the works at this hour of the day. 4967 is like a magnet. Watch for consolidation around this level til later tonight.

There may not be but it is fun though... nice and relaxed journey this time of day, could end up as boring as watching paint dry...
  • #165,174
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:05pm Nov 24, 2009 4:05pm
Decision time again, was this NY close or are the buyers using this as an opportunity to load up again?


I am holding on to my shorts, you decide for yourself please, if you joined me at my point of entry we are still 15 pips in profit, not bad for an afterhours trade.

If you draw a little trend line from the 2040 candle to the 2255 candle (GMT) on M5, we can see where this one goes.
  • #165,175
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:07pm Nov 24, 2009 4:07pm
Took some profits off shorts...holding the rest...


Quoting cloggie
Decision time again, was this NY close or are the buyers using this as an opportunity to load up again?


I am holding on to my shorts, you decide for yourself please, if you joined me at my point of entry we are still 15 pips in profit, not bad for an afterhours trade.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #165,176
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:11pm Nov 24, 2009 4:11pm
That last M5 candle closed below our trendline, the spike was only caused by NY close and the buyers are still staying away waiting for a better entry (as I am since I am a trend trader and only rarely countertrend)

on our way down again.

I really like to see at least 50 pips out of this trade.
  • #165,177
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:16pm Nov 24, 2009 4:16pm
I think the short trade is fine, but may see some good opportunity to enter a little higher 75/77.
  • #165,178
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:18pm Nov 24, 2009 4:18pm
I hope I am not boring anyone yet with my play by play
  • #165,179
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:18pm Nov 24, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting stevefx
I think the short trade is fine, but may see some good opportunity to enter a little higher 75/77.

I will be scaling in then, I entered at 82
  • #165,180
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:20pm Nov 24, 2009 4:20pm
Ah, a nice break to clear the frustration and I have a better view. So, market down, volume thin, interesting thing to note we got a divergence
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index10,433.71-17.24-0.16%
Dow Jones Transport Average Index3,950.37-33.09-0.83%
Obviously there is some more room for shorts, but it's all very tricky as volume is really thin. Tomorrow we are heavy on news, but I'll make a daring guess and say we'll have a red session in the US. Else we aren't seeing much technical indication in the EUR/USD, things look neutral to me at least. There was a short entry an hour or so ago, but it doesn't look very well right now. My guess is we continue to range... slowly UPDATE: Possible bullish entry forming on EUR/USD, depending on the daily close, watch carefully for candle patterns.
Overall I'm still bullish near term, but getting impatient. Anyway, that's my flow of though, don't take anything here seriously
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