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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #183,101
  • Nov 16, 2009 9:55am Nov 16, 2009 9:55am
Quoting frito
am not planning shorting 1.68
am not planning.
i will trade the direction it will assume
right now still long so would like to see 1.68 for shizzle
but whatever...
This is the point I was shooting at frito.

Trading the direction, playing the trend.

I am not going to give a top forecast, I am not that good, but I will play longs until it's time not to.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,102
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:00am Nov 16, 2009 10:00am
Quoting Seismograph
Careful bulls, 30min, 1h and 4h stochastic building up an alignment for the hours ahead!
Only the daily stoch. is in the lows but still can build an “dead cat bounce”.

(And keep in mind, Mr. Bernanke wants shortly to give us a hint to his planned 10% rate cut )

Seismo
OSMA just crossed to positive on the hourly, playing it in confirmation with the MACD and the fact that we are in an uptrend....

Caution should always be exercised.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,103
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:02am Nov 16, 2009 10:02am
Unfortunately if I don't plan I don't trade -- it probably means I make more errors that someone trading the trend, but that's just me.

I'm sticking to my guns: short at 1.6800.
  • #183,104
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:03am Nov 16, 2009 10:03am
CHA CHING!

Easy money there.

Tapped out 3 plays 64 total, but hey, I just woke up.

Will watch for entry on the 200EMA 1m Chart.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,105
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:05am Nov 16, 2009 10:05am
Quoting Seismograph
Careful bulls, 30min, 1h and 4h stochastic building up an alignment for the hours ahead!
Only the daily stoch. is in the lows but still can build an “dead cat bounce”.

(And keep in mind, Mr. Bernanke wants shortly to give us a hint to his planned 10% rate cut )

Seismo
I've been keeping eye on that too ... Weekly also stoking up
  • #183,106
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:06am Nov 16, 2009 10:06am
The daily setup is looking more bullish as the day progresses.I think we are heading to test the top of the daily trendline resistance shown on the attached chart. The pretty all round bad US data this afternoon is only going to help the cause..

Target area 1.6880 ish (chart 1)

The days market profile is developing into a normal bell shape distibution will a fairly large ledge formed at 1.6715 also a key area from the 11/11/09 market profile.
Our next test is the trendline resistance at 1.6765/63 (chart 4) also a big level on the MP from the 11th Nov. A break through this will see us rise happily to 1.68 filling the SINGLE PRINTS between 1.6786 and 1.68 (chart 3).
The 1.68 area take us pretty much up to the daily trendline resistance

chart 4 is a 15min chart
chart1 is daily
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  • #183,107
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:10am Nov 16, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Honor
Unfortunately if I don't plan I don't trade -- it probably means I make more errors that someone trading the trend, but that's just me.

I'm sticking to my guns: short at 1.6800.
I was only trying to offer up a different logic.

I agree, Play the system that works for you, until it doesn't work no more.

The current trend is long, which would make you playing counter trend, this can make for a really rough ride and win loss ratio favor the losses.

Looking to forecast the tops and bottoms of charts can be incredibly difficult, if you happen to do it once, it will have more of a detrimental effect on your trading then if you never did. Reason...if you happen to ABSOLUTELY nut the chart, you will trick yourself into thinking that you can do it again and again. This will cause you to sit out of profitable directional trades and get you into trouble playing counter.

Logic to me would dictate, that if you believe that the price will hit 1.68, and when you had stated this, we were sitting at about 1.675, there is a 50 pip up-ride to be taken, before you enter into your planned short, seems worthwhile to me...

If confidence was on your side, then this logic would prevail, otherwise you are just dart board playing targets, and might be learning some very expensive lessons.

You are not alone, nor exclusive in this logic. I see it all day, and used to play it quite frequently myself. I know about losing accounts on counter directional plays, even with good money management, the win loss ratio can still wipe you out.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,108
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:10am Nov 16, 2009 10:10am
I am up 55 pips but am considering closing my trade at 1.6783 since there is a tough resistance there. But if it does break it might go up to 1.6840 which could give me another 60+ pips.
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  • #183,109
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:11am Nov 16, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Honor
Unfortunately if I don't plan I don't trade -- it probably means I make more errors that someone trading the trend, but that's just me.

I'm sticking to my guns: short at 1.6800.
All succesful traders have trading plans, I'm with you. Know what you are going to do, set your stall out then trade. Plus I'm not that good at scalping.
  • #183,110
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:18am Nov 16, 2009 10:18am
Gator doesn't look hungry anymore = its up up and away
  • #183,111
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:19am Nov 16, 2009 10:19am
Quoting Chumbawunga
I've been keeping eye on that too ... Weekly also stoking up
well, the last week closed as a pin + the weeekly stochs look overbought + divergance on the macd but you never know.
  • #183,112
  • Edited 10:49am Nov 16, 2009 10:20am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting manize
:nerd:1.6716 !
Boarding 1.6725, move SL to 1.6760 ! Target --> Trailing Stop or close if any trigger reverse down at a level between 1.6800 - 62 has been shown !
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I only trade XAU/USD. Based on USD news & Fib SR & BB20
  • #183,113
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:26am Nov 16, 2009 10:26am
how do you find my ideea ?
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  • #183,114
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:34am Nov 16, 2009 10:34am
Quoting Magix
I was only trying to offer up a different logic.

I agree, Play the system that works for you, until it doesn't work no more.

The current trend is long, which would make you playing counter trend, this can make for a really rough ride and win loss ratio favor the losses.

Looking to forecast the tops and bottoms of charts can be incredibly difficult, if you happen to do it once, it will have more of a detrimental effect on your trading then if you never did....
Thanks for the input, I always appreciate any help or advice! However, I would like to correct you on one point: I'm not looking for a top. I'm simply looking for a psychological point that I believe price will react at. I should also add that I'm not just basing my trade on that one point; instead, I'm looking for confluence between numerous other factors. I'm just saying, for the sake of simplicity, that I think price is going to react at this point and am preparing to short.

Anyway, I will give more details on why I take the trade, if and when I take the trade.
  • #183,115
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:35am Nov 16, 2009 10:35am
Quoting geocatalinfx
how do you find my ideea ?
when you say 'Ideas??' are you refering to your chart anyalsis???
  • #183,116
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:39am Nov 16, 2009 10:39am
refer to the uptrend. nothing else. am a junior. i try to learn. sorry if i bother.
  • #183,117
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:41am Nov 16, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Honor
Thanks for the input, I always appreciate any help or advice! However, I would like to correct you on one point: I'm not looking for a top. I'm simply looking for a psychological point that I believe price will react at. I should also add that I'm not just basing my trade on that one point; instead, I'm looking for confluence between numerous other factors. I'm just saying, for the sake of simplicity, that I think price is going to react at this point and am preparing to short.

Anyway, I will give more details on why I take the trade, if and...
I am not looking for justification to your logic. I've had the same logic, played it, lost to it many times.

Earlier I believe you stated that you took 62 pips. Very nice score. Once again, when you first started discussing what the top might be and of course you have your reasons, it offered another 50 pips to the north side. This would seem to me to be a little more effective then possibly being wrong on the movement to stop at a point of reaction, that is counter trend.

I will not help you spend your earnings, nor help cover your losses. There are a lot of new players that join our happy little thread, and seem to play the same way as the masses, picking arbitrary numbers and drawing ambiguous lines on charts.

Longevity in trading which most will tell you is to play the trend, play what you see, not what you expect.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,118
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:43am Nov 16, 2009 10:43am
Quoting geocatalinfx
refer to the uptrend. nothing else. am a junior. i try to learn. sorry if i bother.
It wasn't a bother, just seemed to be more of an incomplete chart and analysis. You have drawn the current trading channel...there is nothing wrong with this. This is a place to discuss ideas, trades and logic. Don't be sorry, and don't be afraid to ask questions.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #183,119
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:45am Nov 16, 2009 10:45am
The divergence beteween GBP and euro continues

Euro swilling about while the GBP is on a roll

It's a hard to get used to the idea that they are no longer correlated

but they aren't for now

or are they....
  • #183,120
  • Nov 16, 2009 10:47am Nov 16, 2009 10:47am
thank you very much. i am sure some of my questions are stupid,but not stupid for me..... you can help me if you tell me what books and what sites i can enter to learn. thank you again.
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