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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #182,941
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting cgldsmth
I don't get your argument Malcolm - a weak dollar doesn't make all imports massive, it stimulates exports, hence stimulates job-growth
have you looked at labels recently

made in china NOT usa ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #182,942
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting stewrigh
Thanks Malc(and Turvey)

But....Ok so the price is going down and some pros are adding to their losing long positions.

On the opposite side, other pros are adding to their winning, short, positions.

Think I know which side I'd rather be on.

As Dr Joe says, if price is going up, I buy, if its going down I sell.

Until it stops, that is, anything else is top or bottom picking.

Anyway this is way too complicated for me - I just trade the trend.....Buy the dips or sell the spikes.

ye but do not forget what side markets makers are taking that is where the fat juicy frontrunning happens

u wanna be in it longer than the 95 percent crowd
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,943
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm Nov 15, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting stewrigh
Thanks Malc(and Turvey)

But....Ok so the price is going down and some pros are adding to their losing long positions.

On the opposite side, other pros are adding to their winning, short, positions.

Think I know which side I'd rather be on.

As Dr Joe says, if price is going up, I buy, if its going down I sell.

Until it stops, that is, anything else is top or bottom picking.

Anyway this is way too complicated for me - I just trade the trend.....Buy the dips or sell the spikes.
  • #182,944
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:28pm Nov 15, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting wormboy
agree 100%.

Dollar hasn't pick up yet, but it's shaping up nicely it's evident on the charts.

DX chart posted a while ago:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3633

Same chart below.
Azim,

Looking at your chart I can see this going to 71, or even lower - lol.
  • #182,945
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:29pm Nov 15, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
have you looked at labels recently

made in china NOT usa ....
that's exactly the problem that the weak USD policy is trying to solve - without export demand, no producs will ever be made in the USA again.

Even if it were a great exporter though, US cars would still be shite. No offence intended.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #182,946
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:30pm Nov 15, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
have you looked at labels recently

made in china NOT usa ....

Malc,

That is exactly the point - this weak dollar policy will bankrupt China before it bankrupts the US
  • #182,947
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:30pm Nov 15, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting stewrigh
Thanks Malc(and Turvey)

But....Ok so the price is going down and some pros are adding to their losing long positions.

On the opposite side, other pros are adding to their winning, short, positions.

Think I know which side I'd rather be on.

As Dr Joe says, if price is going up, I buy, if its going down I sell.

Until it stops, that is, anything else is top or bottom picking.

Anyway this is way too complicated for me - I just trade the trend.....Buy the dips or sell the spikes.

You and me both, Keeping it Simple works, predicting and trying to out think the market doesn't.

Also, sometimes the Pro's that are buying LOSE There Pro's not physic.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #182,948
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:33pm Nov 15, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
think of it like this

yo want to save 1 million ..

do you save it all in one pay check .. no you save bit by bit .. accumulating the 1 million

if pros are very bullish they will buy all dips and accumulate a longer term position .. that is what seems to be happening on dx.

they know everyone is bearish usd ... they know if they buy a little ( which it did push price up ) then stop buying , the price will come down to their original buy price of 75 ....or even lower
I agree with Malc on this. Its this overly bearish, it must sink atmosphere that reversals usually occur in. I have never heard such a negative sentiment towards any commodity in my life...

Of course there is also room to be wrong, and as Jim Rogers once said if we don't get a rally then I'm going to do like everyone else and panic and sell.
Attached Image
  • #182,949
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:33pm Nov 15, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malc,

That is exactly the point - this weak dollar policy will bankrupt China before it bankrupts the US

When China has nothing more to lose WW3 is very possible, China vs USA sadly if the USA is losing ( likely ) then they'll use Nukes and game over.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #182,950
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:38pm Nov 15, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting stewrigh
Azim,

Looking at your chart I can see this going to 71, or even lower - lol.

yea. depends how you interprete the chart.
Falling wedge is not bearish tho. Anyway, let's just wait and see.
I am bullish dollar going into 2010
Thank You
  • #182,951
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:41pm Nov 15, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malc,

A weak dollar will make imports more expensive and exports cheaper.

IMHO. this is exactly what the US needs to stimulate the economy.

Yes it pushes up inflation but thats the least of their problems - deflation is a much greater threat.
Argentina did such thing in the early 60 and 80... Put argentinian currency into a very depreciation of its value. BIG depreciation... the point is doing this, you will have a very dangerous situation of speculation, till the point that currency don't have any real value (as example, here, 1 dollar was 2.3 million pesos in the 80, compared today 1 dollar=3.83 pesos) Plus imports was very big, all factories must to close, very big unemployment situation (at least 45%)and more of this kind of things...
i tell you, sometimes what we think is the correct thing to do, is really the worse option.
Don't you see other's countries economic chaos and learn from it???

All the classic points sometimes does not serve. more than anything in hard times
  • #182,952
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:43pm Nov 15, 2009 2:43pm
price now is @ 1.6715 which means my 15 pip stop was taken
so for now I`ll be looking for interesting stuff between 1.6715 - 1.6750
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,953
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:51pm Nov 15, 2009 2:51pm
hi every one ....the gbpusd:

lets start first of all talking on the usd,there is nothing on the market signals i mean the fund. reports that gives us a signal that the usd will get stronger for the short time ,means that the usd is stell weak and weak.....

and i took my technical analysis and got that the gbpusd has break a very important level.....!!!!!good luck.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gifhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
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  • #182,954
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:53pm Nov 15, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting cesarg
Argentina did such thing in the early 60 and 80... Put argentinian currency into a very depreciation of its value. BIG depreciation... the point is doing this, you will have a very dangerous situation of speculation, till the point that currency don't have any real value (as example, here, 1 dollar was 2.3 million pesos in the 80, compared today 1 dollar=3.83 pesos) Plus imports was very big, all factories must to close, very big unemployment situation (at least 45%)and more of this kind of things...
i tell you, sometimes what we think is...
You can't compare the two situations, as the differences are vast.

Argentina isssued all of its sovereign debt and much of its private sector debt in US dollars, a foreign currency (whereas the US isssues all its debts in dollars). Hence when the peg was broken, the value of the peso crashed, meaning debt servicing costs were impossible to meet. Argentina should've been used as a case study for Latvia, not the US.

Japan in the early 1990s bears a closer comparison, in my opinion, to the situation facing the US: massive private sector debt; collapse of asset prices from over-inflated bubble territory; the inevitable contraction of credit and rise in bad debts; unemployment jumping and private sector demand disappearing; the government aggressively expanding its balance sheet in order to pick up the slack from very low demand from households and businesses.

Deflation, not inflation, still remains the greatest near-term threat to the US economy, particularly with unemployment over 10%, which leaves a dangerous amount of spare capacity in the economy.
  • #182,955
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:53pm Nov 15, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malc,

That is exactly the point - this weak dollar policy will bankrupt China before it bankrupts the US
Today i found something Interesting about gold!!
Have any one look how much gold USA Have ?
They can EASY push the $ UP or cover the debit oh my God
  • #182,956
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:57pm Nov 15, 2009 2:57pm
EURGBP not confirmed but favoring upwards 0.8950 then 0.8962
EURUSD no clear direction (stand aside)
GBPUSD no clear direction (stand aside)
USDZAR no clear direction (stand aside)
USDCAD waiting for more retrace for possible sell, target adjustable 1.0395 then 1.0393
USDJPY waiting for retrace for possible sell, no target defined yet
NZDUSD waiting retrace for possible buy, no target defined yet
GBPJPY no where to go (stand aside)
EURJPY no clear direction (stand aside)
AUDUSD (stand aside)
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,957
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:57pm Nov 15, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting Donadoney

Of course there is also room to be wrong, and as Jim Rogers once said if we don't get a rally then I'm going to do like everyone else and panic and sell.
Now that's funny!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,958
  • Nov 15, 2009 3:01pm Nov 15, 2009 3:01pm
Hi Guys,

Opening price for GU is 1.6719.

GL.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #182,959
  • Nov 15, 2009 3:02pm Nov 15, 2009 3:02pm
Opening price for EU is 1.4928.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #182,960
  • Nov 15, 2009 3:03pm Nov 15, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting djambazov84

u wanna be in it longer than the 95 percent crowd
I know thats what is preached around here but I think you'll find the 5% that are making money are short term to scalper traders.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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