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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #182,921
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:04pm Nov 15, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malcolm,

I wish I understood VSA.

So if pros are buyin the $ in large amounts why doesn't it go up.

High demand usually pushes prices up not down surely?

Any clarification would be appreciated...

let me try to answer that first
from my conversations with him, pros are slowly accumulating dollars at even higher prices because...they can. market makers are loading up on inventory which will be spot dollars, dollar call options and they will be selling dollar put options as to front run the orderflow which ofcourse.. they have since they connect the bid and the ask. They can even allow dx to collapse even more but what me and mal think is that they are slowly temporary supporting dolllar and then disappear and let price slide a bit more. Look at billish weekly divergence on dollar index its ridiculous its the mother of all divergences that I have seen comparable with when euro/usd was 1.25xx for the second time before exploding 2500 pips to 1.50.

pros are showing signs of drying up dollar supply in markets and accumulating it for themselves in the form of bonds spot dollars and such its only inventory to them its merchandise which they get at mind boggling discount only to hold it untill dollars became scarce on market because of "fundies" only to have them sold after months and months of dollar rally

p.s. my projections for usdx is to come back to 82.70 area to meet major weekly supply still can not confirm a true lasting bottom here, but notice how bear raids become shallower and shallower and rallies becaume more and more as market makers try to hit all the bids before the bears smell the fire they will soon have in their rear ends

hope that helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 112 KB
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,922
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:04pm Nov 15, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
The trend is up - I think that might be why He's thinkink of going long.

And the dollar is toilet paper.

Attachment
In my view this maybe reverse so play safer in my opinion is
breaking top line Long
Breaking neck line Short (This what i expected)
  • #182,923
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:05pm Nov 15, 2009 1:05pm
Again, as Malcomb stated, I think it is important to stress to all traders that forecasts made on longer term charts are educated guesses and not specific trade calls with entries and exits.

I do know that a lot of the traders in here are shorter time frame traders, but will only speak for myself here in stating that I will enter trades based off of a 1m-15m chart as they confirm on the longer time frames, and will only hold until I see a change in direction.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,924
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:14pm Nov 15, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting Magix
Again, as Malcomb stated, I think it is important to stress to all traders that forecasts made on longer term charts are educated guesses and not specific trade calls with entries and exits.

I do know that a lot of the traders in here are shorter time frame traders, but will only speak for myself here in stating that I will enter trades based off of a 1m-15m chart as they confirm on the longer time frames, and will only hold until I see a change in direction.

absolutely support your view to enter h4 and daily setups on the m1/m5 chart even ofc off the the m15 but many people will disagree with me on the m1/m5 thats fine to me since i have done that, but do not want to brag because it was done with small positions only to experiment i have honestly had some great low risk very high rewards runs. idea behind is to pay attention to key confluence areas with trend background in back of mind since when the two collide you have less chances to have an in the money trade

but i dare to say that big timefrafe trades can be entered or at least stalked on m1/m5 to get a feel for price action and ticker every moment and then confirm with a m15 chart when u see a possible trigger according to ur rules. be it candle formation fib extension or fib retrace or s&r. and use very tight SL because if you are right, you ARE right and 15-20 pip max SL should be able to prove that. they should also prove if you ARE wrong. so I just try to stick to very good setups with very goods odds and low risk. They allow me to make more such bets which in the long term tilt the average cash into positive for me. and do not forget power of compounding. its ridiculous and i am only beginning to understand it.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,925
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:39pm Nov 15, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malcolm,

I wish I understood VSA.

So if pros are buyin the $ in large amounts why doesn't it go up.

High demand usually pushes prices up not down surely?

Any clarification would be appreciated...

Its more complicated than that thankfully or we'd all be billionaires and money would be worthless.

it's 2 things :-


1. The difference Volume wise between the buyers and sellers.
2. For a upward market, the buyers have to be prepared to pay higher prices, if there not then the sellers will take over and effectively stabilise the price. So we need something fundamental to give the buyers confidence to pay more basically.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #182,926
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:46pm Nov 15, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting djambazov84
absolutely support your view to enter h4 and daily setups on the m1/m5 chart even ofc off the the m15 but many people will disagree with me on the m1/m5 thats fine to me since i have done that, but do not want to brag because it was done with small positions only to experiment i have honestly had some great low risk very high rewards runs. idea behind is to pay attention to key confluence areas with trend background in back of mind since when the two collide you have less chances to have an in the money trade

but i dare to say that big timefrafe...
Getting into the groove can be difficult if you are only a part time trader or cannot commit your every waking hour to watching for direction.

As a specific strategy, I use the 24SMA on all of my charts and will use this as a general trend indicator. If price is above the 24SMA on the 4 hour chart and we are in a sell off, I will wait until I see support on the chart (typically 1m, watching for bounce @ 200, 600 or 1440 EMA) lines. With a bounce at these support lines on the 1m, I will watch for direction and price come and close over the 5m 24SMA support line and enter as it does on the 1m again.

From here, I will again watch for targeted resistance lines on the 15m, 30m, 1h and then onto 4h.

I use a support and resistance indicator on my chart, it draws the support lines and resistance lines on all time frames, in an uptrend I will wait for price to crush through the last line created, and wait for a cross and hold below the 24SMA on the 1m for exit.

These keep me pretty safe in market, and as long as I play by the rules and not speculate the trade, wins grossly outnumber the losses. There are exceptions to all rules, but again, I play by the rules, not waiting for the exceptions.

I am not telling ANYBODY HOW TO TRADE, this is a very simple trade strategy when applied to Cable, works out well for me.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,927
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:47pm Nov 15, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malcolm,

I wish I understood VSA.

So if pros are buyin the $ in large amounts why doesn't it go up.

High demand usually pushes prices up not down surely?

Any clarification would be appreciated...
think of it like this

yo want to save 1 million ..

do you save it all in one pay check .. no you save bit by bit .. accumulating the 1 million

if pros are very bullish they will buy all dips and accumulate a longer term position .. that is what seems to be happening on dx.

they know everyone is bearish usd ... they know if they buy a little ( which it did push price up ) then stop buying , the price will come down to their original buy price of 75 ....or even lower
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #182,928
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:49pm Nov 15, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting stewrigh
The trend is up - I think that might be why He's thinking of going long.

And the dollar is toilet paper.

Attachment
really ? yet dx is 75 ... not the 72 it was back at 2007 and volume last 3 weeks is the highest it has EVER a been ... is it really toilet paper ?

if you really think this then there will be a currency crisis ... if usd drops in value all impirts will be massive and inflation will take off . Do you really think the US want this ?

here was my point ... everyone is usd bear , just like everyone was oil bull at 150
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #182,929
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:51pm Nov 15, 2009 1:51pm
GbpUsd ended last week in a bid manner.For the next sessions I see a bullish potential on this pair.After the consolidation drawn in the chart above, GbpUsd might regain its upward way and provoke the resistances 1.6785 and 1.6843.
  • #182,930
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:00pm Nov 15, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
really ? yet dx is 75 ... not the 72 it was back at 2007 and volume last 3 weeks is the highest it has EVER a been ... is it really toilet paper ?

if you really think this then there will be a currency crisis ... if usd drops in value all impirts will be massive and inflation will take off . Do you really think the US want this ?

here was my point ... everyone is usd bear , just like everyone was oil bull at 150
Do u mean the markets will drop sooner or later..what a bout gold and oil???
  • #182,931
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:04pm Nov 15, 2009 2:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
really ? yet dx is 75 ... not the 72 it was back at 2007 and volume last 3 weeks is the highest it has EVER a been ... is it really toilet paper ?

if you really think this then there will be a currency crisis ... if usd drops in value all impirts will be massive and inflation will take off . Do you really think the US want this ?

here was my point ... everyone is usd bear , just like everyone was oil bull at 150
I don't get your argument Malcolm - a weak dollar doesn't make all imports massive, it stimulates exports, hence stimulates job-growth
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #182,932
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:05pm Nov 15, 2009 2:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
really ? yet dx is 75 ... not the 72 it was back at 2007 and volume last 3 weeks is the highest it has EVER a been ... is it really toilet paper ?

if you really think this then there will be a currency crisis ... if usd drops in value all impirts will be massive and inflation will take off . Do you really think the US want this ?

here was my point ... everyone is usd bear , just like everyone was oil bull at 150
As a Canuck, I keep eyes on USD/CAD but very rarely play it. Not saying that this is an overall indicator for the US dollar all round, but I am showing weakness on it's chart seeing a possible lower low then what we seen last year at about the same time.

I did buy @ 1.02xx and sold for a total of just over 300 on 2 lots, as was an overnight trade, I took the dough, thanked speculation on that one, and have not entered again.

The monthly and weekly on this pair show longer term bear signs and the daily has just walked back into the same turf.

I know...This is not going to forecast the overall dollar in the entire market, nor will it's relation to the GBP necessarily mean that Cable will explode into massive highs.

Quite honestly, just thinking about this is giving me a headache. I think it's best I leave these conversations and analysis to the smart folk, and continue on with my charts...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,933
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:08pm Nov 15, 2009 2:08pm
everyone is bearish on dx?.... lol
  • #182,934
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:10pm Nov 15, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting Magix
As a Canuck, I keep eyes on USD/CAD but very rarely play it....
thats what i call a f#@$@n trade !
get 300 in 2 days and go have fun in limousines
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,935
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:10pm Nov 15, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting pkimnyc
everyone is bearish on dx?.... lol

with a few disguised bulls here and there
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #182,936
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:12pm Nov 15, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting zamzen
You must be a F--ing IDIOT . What u know about other traders in here? Both Newbies and Experienced come here to learn and share. What you have done? have you shared anything useful? NO... u are like bitchy dog...So keep ur f--cking dirty mouth shut
i am not here to learn nor to share, should i keep my mouth shut as well?
chill out
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,937
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:14pm Nov 15, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting micho
i am not here to learn nor to share, should i keep my mouth shut as well?
chill out
YES!

PLEASE!!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,938
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:15pm Nov 15, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
really ? yet dx is 75 ... not the 72 it was back at 2007 and volume last 3 weeks is the highest it has EVER a been ... is it really toilet paper ?

if you really think this then there will be a currency crisis ... if usd drops in value all impirts will be massive and inflation will take off . Do you really think the US want this ?

here was my point ... everyone is usd bear , just like everyone was oil bull at 150
Malc,

A weak dollar will make imports more expensive and exports cheaper.

IMHO. this is exactly what the US needs to stimulate the economy.

Yes it pushes up inflation but thats the least of their problems - deflation is a much greater threat.
  • #182,939
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:19pm Nov 15, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14

I am super bull on the usd....
agree 100%.

Dollar hasn't pick up yet, but it's shaping up nicely it's evident on the charts.

DX chart posted a while ago:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3633

Same chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxw.JPG Size: 72 KB
Thank You
  • #182,940
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:23pm Nov 15, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting malcolmb14
think of it like this

yo want to save 1 million ..

do you save it all in one pay check .. no you save bit by bit .. accumulating the 1 million

if pros are very bullish they will buy all dips and accumulate a longer term position .. that is what seems to be happening on dx.

they know everyone is bearish usd ... they know if they buy a little ( which it did push price up ) then stop buying , the price will come down to their original buy price of 75 ....or even lower
Thanks Malc(and Turvey)

But....Ok so the price is going down and some pros are adding to their losing long positions.

On the opposite side, other pros are adding to their winning, short, positions.

Think I know which side I'd rather be on.

As Dr Joe says, if price is going up, I buy, if its going down I sell.

Until it stops, that is, anything else is top or bottom picking.

Anyway this is way too complicated for me - I just trade the trend.....Buy the dips or sell the spikes.
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