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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #182,881
  • Nov 14, 2009 9:27pm Nov 14, 2009 9:27pm
Hi. This is my first post on FF. My NEAR-TERM view on this pair based on my 4H Ichimoku analysis is BEARISH. As I'm not a position trader but am a day trader, I don't predict the price movement for an extended period.

The reason for my near-term bearish view is the Chiko-line has crossed the Tenkan-line from above as well as it failed to break 1.6706 or to hold above 1.6700 in the previous candle. RSI is also pointing down. It needs to go down first, and may go back up after that. My target is 1.6620 which is just above the Kumo/cloud, although it could extend down to the 4H trend line.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1258261930
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  • #182,882
  • Nov 14, 2009 9:38pm Nov 14, 2009 9:38pm
Quoting 4Naomi
pathetic. more than 5 years trading and yet trading like a newbie
yup I trade like a newbie day in day out ... buy tops and sell bottoms....

that is me ...I love giving 5 k to the market every day

I work for the feds when I run out of money I get the printing press started

How about you ? do you work for the angry member of society club of Japan ? all your posts have been rude and obnoxious ...ever going to post anything of use as , according to you , the rest of us are just muppet ? I guess you love that long button so much that you cannot see the easy symmetry that dj and I have been trading last week on a 4 hour chart
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  • #182,883
  • Nov 14, 2009 10:33pm Nov 14, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting egkid
We WIN 2/0
AMR ZAKI and EMAD METEAB 2 Goals
Great to see your country won,congratulation !! hope you will also win a lot this week in forex.
Best wishes,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #182,884
  • Nov 14, 2009 10:41pm Nov 14, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting IbkA
Sorry, I don't use or understand the 's*****ed' word in the title of your response to my questions.

Second, as I have a policy of not keeping open trades over the weekend, I closed all open positions last night, at a loss of 10 pips at .01 lots (just a small-time trader) so I'm not 's*******ed' as you put it, simply flat.

Point taken though about placing a buy order at the point I did, this was placed in the afternoon before cable retreated, and when I was looking for cable to test 1.6750 - ever been there before, thinking cable was going...
no need to close the trades over the weekend because the significant moves will be played during the weekdays. think of it if you are trading the daily chart or weekly chart... these trends need several weeks to develop and then by closing your trades every week you are not sticking to the plan
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,885
  • Nov 14, 2009 11:32pm Nov 14, 2009 11:32pm
An indicator to see shows entry and exit points may be good for the analysis off time the trading records .Just find one now & see how many times I enter,exit prematurely & most cases saved only due analysis was ok & trades on correct direction or by simple luck .May not all time doing it .My excuse I see not baby sitting trades or for entry or exits & do work very off & on.
may help for others too.

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #182,886
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:04am Nov 15, 2009 1:04am
hi all

any body think there will be a agap tonight
  • #182,887
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:23am Nov 15, 2009 1:23am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Thanks Micho

My personal strategy includes a one liner, i.e. 'do not keep trades open over the weekend', so by closing all open trades at the weekend, I am simply sticking to my strategy, regardless of whether the market then goes in the direction of my trade the following week.

IMHO, it's part of the learning process for me, i.e. having drawn up a plan, stick to it; maybe over the years' I'll become confident ane experienced enough to remove that clause from my strategy and keep trades open over the weekend - until then, it stays in.

i

Quoting micho
no need to close the trades over the weekend because the significant moves will be played during the weekdays. think of it if you are trading the daily chart or weekly chart... these trends need several weeks to develop and then by closing your trades every week you are not sticking to the plan
  • #182,888
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:37am Nov 15, 2009 1:37am
This is just my view what will be happen next week, based on what I saw this...
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  • #182,889
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:47am Nov 15, 2009 1:47am
i hope you are only giving a guess and not actually trading this... guessing and trading dont go along
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,890
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:50am Nov 15, 2009 1:50am
in my opinion gbp touch 1.70xx level.
  • #182,891
  • Nov 15, 2009 1:51am Nov 15, 2009 1:51am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Thanks, and I do get your point; I literally tell my significant other where I think the market is going for the day; he takes the trade but I don't out of fear; he picks up the pips, I don't and gain nothing. I'm more risk adverse than he is, just from my previous single bad experience when I first started in June where I didn't blow my account, but it took a lot of prayer and wailing for the trade to get back to break-even when cable hit 1.7043 and I was happily selling from way below there! Since then, I've developed a mental block which says, as long as your account remains at break-even, you're okay - which means I make pips and then lose them by going in late on an entry e.g. like Friday afternoon - but always remain at break-even.

Learnt so much since June using trend analysis, chart patterns, and fundamentals but just need to get over this 'paralysis' and break-even mindset and just get on with things basically. Missing out on a lot of opportunties I agree , but I will break this break-even mindset soon.

Good luck this week, and this is the week I'll start actually doing something about this fear and just trade my thoughts as you say.

i




Quoting Magix
Yo Mango.

Don't be sorry for posting your opinions, this is a public thread and that's what this place is meant for. Just because I didn't agree with you doesn't mean that I am right in my analysis, nor that you are wrong, just means that we see different things based on our specific play styles.

Nobody has ever sent me a check for helping them prosper and I sures to hell haven't sent any rebates for people that said, "I did this because you said".

If you have disagreed with other posts in here and it has kept you out of what might have...
  • #182,892
  • Nov 15, 2009 2:42am Nov 15, 2009 2:42am
Used opinion consider as a guess but not a real trading.
  • #182,893
  • Nov 15, 2009 3:25am Nov 15, 2009 3:25am
Quoting IbkA
Thanks, and I do get your point; I literally tell my significant other where I think the market is going for the day; he takes the trade but I don't out of fear; he picks up the pips, I don't and gain nothing....
then play small lots or practice on a demo account to get over it
then you can trade
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,894
  • Nov 15, 2009 3:33am Nov 15, 2009 3:33am
update cable
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  • #182,895
  • Nov 15, 2009 4:32am Nov 15, 2009 4:32am
My daily chart (weekly & 4 hour charts posted on my blog)
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  • #182,896
  • Nov 15, 2009 5:24am Nov 15, 2009 5:24am
Quoting IbkA
Thanks Micho

My personal strategy includes a one liner, i.e. 'do not keep trades open over the weekend', so by closing all open trades at the weekend, I am simply sticking to my strategy, regardless of whether the market then goes in the direction of my trade the following week.

IMHO, it's part of the learning process for me, i.e. having drawn up a plan, stick to it; maybe over the years' I'll become confident ane experienced enough to remove that clause from my strategy and keep trades open over the weekend - until then, it stays in.

i
you have to modify your strategy to keep trades over the weekend... it doesnt make sense to close them...
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #182,897
  • Edited 5:39am Nov 15, 2009 5:37am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting malcolmb14
ok this is out there and something i have been watching since July of this year

the 2007 top took 8 months to drop and we are forming almost the same pattern now

if infact this week completed the end of wave 2 right into resistance ( nice that it went 150 above just to lure in all the bulls ) , wave 3 ends at 1.4600 ish

AS I HAVE SAID BEFORE I GET ANY STUPID EMAILS FROM SWING TRADERS THAT CANNOT HAVE 300 PIP DRAW DOWN FOR 2000 PIPS REWARD , THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN TILL 2ND QUARTER IF NEXT YEAR . IF YOU ARE ONE OF THESE DO NOT BOTHER ME WITH...
I am fully with you. Also three weeks ago the market has ignored (willfully by the profis???) the niche Pinoccio bar. It must have cought a lot of folks. I am wondering if they play it this time vice versa.
Please keep in mind the equity market (it looks quite toppy and is slow grinding). It may require only the right event to kick in a retracement.

In this case the direction of the $$ will be clear.

Seismo
There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #182,898
  • Nov 15, 2009 8:10am Nov 15, 2009 8:10am
Quoting IbkA
Thanks, and I do get your point; I literally tell my significant other where I think the market is going for the day; he takes the trade but I don't out of fear; he picks up the pips, I don't and gain nothing....
I have not only been in this position but see a lot of others sacrifice their accounts to the pip gods being here. Watching others making money, wondering why you are taking small losses or holding flat, it can begin to mess with your mind and make you break your own rules. EMOTION, is the toughest thing to overcome in the market, and definitely a large mountain to tackle, but as the saying goes, "A journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step", and I believe you to be taking this step. Every time you find yourself breaking one of your own personal rules, you will quickly come to realize why you made that rule in the first place, kind of like the quick punishment you would have been dealt trying to dip your hand into the cookie jar too close to dinner time, a quick and stern smack.

Another rule I might suggest as a part A and B, try not to follow(a) or become(b) somebody who posts like this....

Quoting micho
you have to modify your strategy to keep trades over the weekend... it doesnt make sense to close them...
Quoting micho
no need to close the trades over the weekend because the significant moves will be played during the weekdays. think of it if you are trading the daily chart or weekly chart... these trends need several weeks to develop and then by closing your trades every week you are not sticking to the plan
Quoting micho
then play small lots or practice on a demo account to get over it
then you can trade
No good comes from this.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #182,899
  • Nov 15, 2009 8:18am Nov 15, 2009 8:18am
Quoting Magix

Another rule I might suggest as a part A and B, try not to follow(a) or become(b) somebody who posts like this....

Yep being nothing like someone that posts like that is KEY that isn't trading that's HOPING that and do you want to be holding over the weekend and worrying, lifes to short.

Trade with the clear direction and exit when the direction becomes unclear / against you, it really is that easy stop making it difficult for yourself.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #182,900
  • Nov 15, 2009 8:38am Nov 15, 2009 8:38am
for those that think i am a complete muppet ....

weekly chart and symmetry of moves

it is an educated guess that this will drop if this move is symmetrical form the 2007 top

remember wave 1 and 2 will form when everyone are still bullish ...wave 3 is the longest as they discover they were completely wrong

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