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  • #159,661
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:23pm Nov 7, 2009 2:23pm
Quoting investor_me
Honestly however, news trading isn't as secure as it used to be in the old days, probably due to unpredictable behavior and widening of spreads.

Good luck...
When one begins to trade forex, the conventional wisdom one finds is: "Don't trade the news." Then, maybe one ignores that wisdom and tries to trade the news and loses a ton (Been there, done that.) So, conventional wisdom doesn't get to be conventional wisdom for nothing.

However, if you watch the news events over time you will notice that there are common PA reactions to given news announcements for a given currency pair, and across pairs.

Recurrent PA = predictable PA. Predictable PA = free money.

I am always on the lookout for predictable volatility and I want to exploit that. You can count on volatility around certain news announcements (obviously) and if you can trade said volatility in a manageable way (don't try to catch the whole move - enter after the worst of the whipsaws are done, etc) then you can reliably profit from trading around the news.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159,662
  • Nov 7, 2009 2:30pm Nov 7, 2009 2:30pm
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  • #159,663
  • Nov 8, 2009 3:43am Nov 8, 2009 3:43am
My 4 hour chart says this pair is indecisive - will it follow the green or red brick road?

Additional charts posted on my blog
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  • #159,664
  • Edited 5:55am Nov 8, 2009 5:32am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting xedwardx
Hi all!

I've done a little simple analysis on the GBP/USD (Daily).. Here's my findings:

Firstly, the downward trend line is not broken (Pink Circle)..
Secondly, the 8hrs chart shows 2 pretty nice doji and this could be a good signal to go short..

I think I could go short on this pair..
But I've a feeling that my analysis are not enough to support my decision.. Any ideas anyone...?

Attachment
Your previous chart shows a EUR/GBP short set up, shouldn't that mean GBP/USD long has some way to go before its time to consider a short?

I am flat gu at the moment, might consider a short at 1.685-1.69
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #159,665
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:43am Nov 8, 2009 6:43am
I can dream.
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  • #159,666
  • Nov 8, 2009 6:53am Nov 8, 2009 6:53am
EURO is going up

Quoting SerpentDove
I can dream.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #159,667
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:09am Nov 8, 2009 7:09am
Quoting SerpentDove
I can dream.

Dream is the thing that one would hope and can be reached with hard work.

Imagination is the thing that one would hope and can not be reached as it is a fantasy..



"At least in the current circumstances, your dream fantasy".
  • #159,668
  • Nov 8, 2009 7:59am Nov 8, 2009 7:59am
Without breaking the 1.4600 price level we're going to test the last summit at 1.5060

I think that the weekly closed encouraged to do so and this does not prevent re-test levels close to 1.46xx ..

http://www.mypicx.com/uploadimg/3170...11082009_1.gif
  • #159,669
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:00am Nov 8, 2009 8:00am
Quoting X.Oden
EURO is going up
But even if it does, but IMHO, it won't break the 1.4910 barrier for sure this week. So it may end up going back to the same level of Friday and retest it and possibly have a breakout. So hope is not lost for the bears.

I don't think however that the Japanese session is the one to create the bearish momentum for breaking out below the 1.4830 level. But it's forex, and you never know..
  • #159,670
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:08am Nov 8, 2009 8:08am
Quoting nedooo
Dream is the thing that one would hope and can be reached with hard work.

Imagination is the thing that one would hope and can not be reached as it is a fantasy..

"At least in the current circumstances, your dream fantasy".

I totally agree with the first two statements. Where I disagree, is that current circumstances, are the fantasy.
  • #159,671
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:17am Nov 8, 2009 8:17am
for my point of view...it is a possible for eu to come down...
we are in the end of 2009...anything can happen in this ending year..
i hope we all can end this year with a lot of green pips...

for this week...after a good NFP day...i beleived this pair is going to retest the high...and then...a water fall will take place...i looking for a short at the peak..
happy trading...
  • #159,672
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:20am Nov 8, 2009 8:20am
Quoting SerpentDove
I totally agree with the first two statements. Where I disagree, is that current circumstances, are the fantasy.

Read the full statement


I said ( "At least in the current circumstances, your dream fantasy".)

I did not say current circumstances, are the fantasy.
  • #159,673
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:24am Nov 8, 2009 8:24am
Quoting nedooo
Read the full statement


I said ( "At least in the current circumstances, your dream fantasy".)

I did not say current circumstances, are the fantasy.
Dream: Market goes in my direction (or I go with the market direction)
Imagination: I make money
Fantasy: I make a lot of money
Circumstances: I am not sure what market will do next
Action: Thinking
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #159,674
  • Nov 8, 2009 8:55am Nov 8, 2009 8:55am
Trade defensively and you'll be ahead....trade aggressively and you may get lucky....trade sloppy and you'll lose money....

In Charts We Trust!
  • #159,675
  • Nov 8, 2009 10:11am Nov 8, 2009 10:11am
Quoting nedooo
Without breaking the 1.4600 price level we're going to test the last summit at 1.5060

I think that the weekly closed encouraged to do so and this does not prevent re-test levels close to 1.46xx ..

http://www.mypicx.com/uploadimg/3170...11082009_1.gif

Would this come as such a big surprise ? ...Just thinking outloud....Please don't pay any attention...
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  • #159,676
  • Nov 8, 2009 10:11am Nov 8, 2009 10:11am
Expanding triangle
Ascending Channel
Symetrical triangle
Parallel channel

Hapip pipping all!!
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  • #159,677
  • Nov 8, 2009 10:20am Nov 8, 2009 10:20am
This is what I am seeing..
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ABCD..
  • #159,678
  • Nov 8, 2009 10:36am Nov 8, 2009 10:36am
Quoting toshi
Would this come as such a big surprise ? ...Just thinking outloud....Please don't pay any attention...

Definitely everything is possible in this market

the scenario you are talking about is possible and there is who talking about it even with further target

However personally I rely on fundamental analysis than technical analysis, and everything says that the dollar will fall
and it is a matter of time

The final word will be the price action...
  • #159,679
  • Nov 8, 2009 10:57am Nov 8, 2009 10:57am
Cit is saying that the euro will climb relative to the dollar as it is finding support at its 55-day moving average. Recent declines in the euro stalled Nov. 3 at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from its Oct. 2 low of $1.4481 to its Oct 26 high of $1.5063. The euro may now gain to $1.5064 with a firm break of that level creating an opportunity up to $1.5285.
  • #159,680
  • Edited 11:42am Nov 8, 2009 11:20am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting Tiger21
Cit is saying that the euro will climb relative to the dollar as it is finding support at its 55-day moving average. Recent declines in the euro stalled Nov. 3 at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from its Oct. 2 low of $1.4481 to its Oct 26 high of $1.5063. The euro may now gain to $1.5064 with a firm break of that level creating an opportunity up to $1.5285.
Hope every action will happen in time but nobody knows when & personally I do not think it will up & cross this great congestion area so straight. may take another couples of months to do so.

One possibilty of formation a diamond, in doing so price may back to 1.4883 , range for some time around the centre 1.4868 . first break to the reaction low to validate diamond & when break should be equal to reaction high-low =100pips from reaction low.
Just a hypothesis , may or may not worm or actually form.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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