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  • #159,641
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:45pm Nov 6, 2009 2:45pm
some confusing stuff this week.
  • #159,642
  • Nov 6, 2009 2:46pm Nov 6, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting X.Oden
Starting next week, I may start posting my trades live as I take them in my own thread. I guess you can watch and maybe learn. I will warn you that if you plan to take the trades however, that my swings are fairly large and well.....if you take them you'll need to be able to hang on to the swings......

I will be trading this on my small account with various lot sizes...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=201166

Cool, X-O, that will be interesting to see. One of these days you will probably want to break down and show us your whole hedging strategy, too, no?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159,643
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:17pm Nov 6, 2009 3:17pm
Maybe so...but I doubt many have the guts or patience to hold as long as I do..

Honestly, the best trading I have ever done simply involves sitting on your hands and doing nothing but wait once the trade is in place. Its very very VERY boring!


Quoting The Fool
Cool, X-O, that will be interesting to see. One of these days you will probably want to break down and show us your whole hedging strategy, too, no?
In Charts We Trust!
  • #159,644
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:42pm Nov 6, 2009 3:42pm
Are we getting Trichet right? Sooner than later it was expected that ECB through Trichet would start doing something about the E/U rate. Apparently for Trichet doing something was to gently tell China to leave the E/U rates free (China is currently protecting yuan through E/U selling apparently). Which means that i got it wrong all the time. I was thinking that it was more important for EUR to be low so exporters could have a nice time. Truth is that if I think better Europe is importing almost EVERYTHING from China. So what's to more advantage? Sell more euros to the world or pay less euros to china?
  • #159,645
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:27pm Nov 6, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting X.Oden
Maybe so...but I doubt many have the guts or patience to hold as long as I do..

Honestly, the best trading I have ever done simply involves sitting on your hands and doing nothing but wait once the trade is in place. Its very very VERY boring!

agreed...

believe that its important to spot the direction of a trend, then trade the swings; buy low, sell high... But you gotta hold for the swings
  • #159,646
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:33pm Nov 6, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting X.Oden
Maybe so...but I doubt many have the guts or patience to hold as long as I do..

Honestly, the best trading I have ever done simply involves sitting on your hands and doing nothing but wait once the trade is in place. Its very very VERY boring!
I agree with you, making money is boring...
  • #159,647
  • Nov 6, 2009 5:43pm Nov 6, 2009 5:43pm
case study is on my blog as I promised. enjoy
  • #159,648
  • Nov 6, 2009 8:13pm Nov 6, 2009 8:13pm
i'll be watching ur thread X.Oden.. probably we might have the same trading system.. it will be interesting.. =)
  • #159,649
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:23pm Nov 6, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting Forex4pty
I agree with you, making money is boring...

No, its not. Losing is a real slap in the face. Winning is a good nights sleep. Money is what you play with and keep score with, but the game is out thinking your opponent (the bank).
  • #159,650
  • Nov 7, 2009 3:11am Nov 7, 2009 3:11am
Quoting Forex4pty
I agree with you, making money is boring...
Sure I think till start loosing again with whatever strategy or trading method applied except minimal or non trading to enjoy more time with family & friends strategy .It happened many times to me ,usually after continous trading 2-3 weeks of profit trades.Ofcourse you did not mean what I write , perhaps waiting for a correct entry is boring ,you may .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #159,651
  • Nov 7, 2009 5:36am Nov 7, 2009 5:36am
Actual > Forecast = Good for currencycan someboday teach me this?I don't know what is this meant and is this very important and affect the trend??EU will up or down?
  • #159,652
  • Edited 6:45am Nov 7, 2009 6:34am | Edited 6:45am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr.gif Size: 41 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1hr.gif Size: 38 KB


This is first time I post a chart, thanks to grashid.

Reading 4Hr chart, EU is testing a new high every time by retracing (like getting more force with retracing and go up again). We are still in up trend. No new valley went below the level of the important valley before. Blue line is a good resitance line, but offers a good support also. 1.4620/40 was a hard support area, seen four supports exists. EU couldn't pass through. Last up direction ends at three time at 1.4920 and retrace everytime at 38.2% FIB level (Blue FIB), making a range between 1.4810 and 1.4920, looks like a consolidation and showing like a reversal head and shoulders (both are more clear on 1Hr). That 38.2% key level is important to see also because the whole retrace after 1.5060 was around 38.2% (Pink FIB). It was also the retrace after 1.4830 new peak. Taking care that blue line is always support and resistance, then area 1.4950 will not be easy to cross and we will hit again the support. Actual price is exactly at active support/ resistance level (it was a resistance for the old peak, and after support at four times, again resistance at more than three times and actually again as resistance). If we pass through this monday morning, i think next target will be 1.4950 area. I have to pay attention at yellow high resistance. A pullback could happen if it is active. Unfortunatly, at that stage, the RSI is not indicating an oversold to confirm the analyze, neither on 4Hr (slightly higher than 50) nor on the 1Hr slightly lower than 50) to confirm the timing. In 1Hr, the up move failed at vertical red line and get support on white line. Crossing four lines at the same time will be difficult without heavy news or violent DOW's action, that's why first trading hours will not give me indications.

To summarize, i keep thinking IN MY HUBLE OPINION that the next move will be up and maybe the model AB=CD will enter in action, taking at least CD= 0.618xAB = 1.5040 up to x1.618 = 1.5300 area and though in longer term, which is the same target of the reversal head and shoulders.

That's my plan that i missed to prepare yesterday and in Forex, without plan, loss become your real friend. If it fails, my SL is 1.4780. If it's right, first target is 1.5020 (always some pips above the target), waiting for a pull back to around 38.2% and thus up to 1.5300. Ratio is good to trade.

Good luck for all.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #159,653
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:44am Nov 7, 2009 9:44am
Hi all!

I'm new here so does my knowledge on forex.. I've attached a chart on Eur/GBP (Daily) and see from the tools that it'll be a good move to short the currency pair.. Pls correct me if i'm wrong as I'm still a newbie..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #159,654
  • Nov 7, 2009 9:48am Nov 7, 2009 9:48am
No offense, but how the hell do you trade this stuff? Geez...looks like a planetarium!

Quoting No Stress
Attachment

Attachment

This is first time I post a chart, thanks to grashid.

Reading 4Hr chart, EU is testing a new high every time by retracing (like getting more force with retracing and go up again). We are still in up trend. No new valley went below the level of the important valley before. Blue line is a good resitance line, but offers a good support also. 1.4620/40 was a hard support area, seen four supports exists. EU couldn't pass through. Last up direction ends at three time at 1.4920 and retrace everytime...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #159,655
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:04am Nov 7, 2009 11:04am
Quoting dxchen
Actual > Forecast = Good for currencycan someboday teach me this?I don't know what is this meant and is this very important and affect the trend??EU will up or down?
Depending on the country originating the report, this implies that if the news are not good (worse than forecast), the currency would lose value against others. For example, last Friday, the NFP data showed that the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry was -190k, which is worse than the forecast figure of -173k, hence the value of the USD dollar is supposed to have weakened against other currencies. Note that this was exactly what happened for the USDJPY, as the Yen gained significantly from this move. The GBP initially spiked low but returned to make highs after the news. But the Euro deviated from this rule and had closed the day lower. So, even those reactions are not standardized and depends on several factors. FF itself noted that the reason behind 'unusual' rise of the USD against some currencies (in this case the Euro) may be attributed to the fact that 'bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds'.

Google 'forex news trading' and you'll find more information about this.

Honestly however, news trading isn't as secure as it used to be in the old days, probably due to unpredictable behavior and widening of spreads.

Good luck...
  • #159,656
  • Nov 7, 2009 11:37am Nov 7, 2009 11:37am
Hi all!

I've done a little simple analysis on the GBP/USD (Daily).. Here's my findings:

Firstly, the downward trend line is not broken (Pink Circle)..
Secondly, the 8hrs chart shows 2 pretty nice doji and this could be a good signal to go short..

I think I could go short on this pair..
But I've a feeling that my analysis are not enough to support my decision.. Any ideas anyone...?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.jpg Size: 186 KB
  • #159,657
  • Nov 7, 2009 12:13pm Nov 7, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting X.Oden
No offense, but how the hell do you trade this stuff? Geez...looks like a planetarium!
lol, every support and resitance line has a meaning for me. It differs when you draw your lines your self and see it drawn direct on the chart from an other. Better, believe me, this chart is very simple compared at what i follow in live. Do you remember when i expected that EU will go higher last week-end whereas many said to me that it will go down and finally my target at three levels were reached, but i made the mistake to follow the news (bankrupty of CIT bank) and i did not kept the trade open when it was down near 20 pips to SL and after went to reach targets at exact three levels? And the week before, when every body said it will go down again and i expect that it will go higher? These were thanks to my planetarium charts lol.

I'll see this time, if my calculation is right or not.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #159,658
  • Nov 7, 2009 12:27pm Nov 7, 2009 12:27pm
I really understand what you're saying, but there's no way to truly predict the markets, your chance for it are 50/50.....



Quoting No Stress
lol, every support and resitance line has a meaning for me. It differs when you draw your lines your self and see it drawn direct on the chart from an other. Better, believe me, this chart is very simple compared at what i follow in live. Do you remember when i expected that EU will go higher last week-end whereas many said to me that it will go down and finally my target at three levels were reached, but i made the mistake to follow the news (bankrupty of CIT bank) and i did not kept the trade open when it was down near 20 pips to SL and after...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #159,659
  • Nov 7, 2009 1:24pm Nov 7, 2009 1:24pm
Quoting X.Oden
I really understand what you're saying, but there's no way to truly predict the markets, your chance for it are 50/50.....
Sure, no one can predict the future or what the market will do. Trader who believe he can, is like a poker player. Forex is not a game of chance. What we are doing is to analyse the charts, expecting what bigs could do, even they are respecting Support and resistance levels, if no exceptionnal news happen (you agree that a good trader is who follows the trend and the move). My plan is many points, when put together, give me what market could do even Bigs are working also with technicals (FIB, RSI, MACD, S/R, MA, Volume ..etc). If i made a mistake in reading my charts, SL protect me. I'm not waiting for the chance (i know i'm not lucky, if only i'm waiting for chance lol). Ah, if only chance will work, trading will be more simple ( put your SL and wait for a ratio 1:3 or more and repeat it everytime while you bankrupt or you'll be millionaire, why charts and their headaches? lol).

Good luck bro.
No Signal, No Trade. No fundamenals, No headache.
  • #159,660
  • Nov 7, 2009 1:33pm Nov 7, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting cannarek
case study is on my blog as I promised. enjoy
I thought I'd just say thanks for the informative blog posts. Keep them coming !
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