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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #781
  • Nov 5, 2009 6:58am Nov 5, 2009 6:58am
Quoting castlerock
gu has been hard to navigate recently but have taken a sell @16550 it's struggled to hit 16700 and now seems to be rejecting 16600 also daily trend line seems to be holding so looks to me anyway gu heading south let's see what happens.Attachment
Hi Castle,

G/U is too unstable for me at the moment so I am staying clear until I see a better chart! My personal opinion is that G/U is heading up but I am not trading that opinion!

My chart is attached... I am seeing the previous downward channel as being broken (shown in yellow). If price can make it up beyond the 1.6600 area (and stay up) then I am definitely thinking long!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-11-05_1256_GU.png Size: 33 KB
  • #782
  • Nov 5, 2009 7:02am Nov 5, 2009 7:02am
Quoting Artamon
G'day all,

Some good comments regarding the EURO trade. It was definately a long play. If for nothing else, you'll see from my chart below that 1.4700 was tested at least 5 times, so the support was there and was strong...and it was at 61.8 fib level too.

Cheers,
Art...
Agreed!

There are a few people (in other threads I might say!) who are always looking to pick tops and bottoms. I say make it easy for yourself and trade only what the chart shows!

Regards,

Dan
  • #783
  • Nov 5, 2009 9:06am Nov 5, 2009 9:06am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Castle,

G/U is too unstable for me at the moment so I am staying clear until I see a better chart! My personal opinion is that G/U is heading up but I am not trading that opinion!

My chart is attached... I am seeing the previous downward channel as being broken (shown in yellow). If price can make it up beyond the 1.6600 area (and stay up) then I am definitely thinking long!

Regards,

Dan
Hi dan i see your point with the channel it was a tricky trade to take the will i wont i trades are out if you have any kind of conflict best keep finger off the trigger was 12pips from break even before i left this morning so moved stop so no loss.
  • #784
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:14am Nov 5, 2009 10:14am
what are the most opposite currency pairs?

it seems like EU and GU are very correlated to trade
  • #785
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:17am Nov 5, 2009 10:17am
Quoting IliaM
what are the most opposite currency pairs?

it seems like EU and GU are very correlated to trade
Hi IliaM,

When you say "opposite", are you referring to currencies that go in the same direction or does that "mirror" each other?

- eur/usd + usd/chf are mirrored perfectly.

- eur/usd + aus/usd + nzd/usd go in same direction.

I truly believe correlation is a huge ally.

my 2 cents
  • #786
  • Nov 5, 2009 10:54am Nov 5, 2009 10:54am
Quoting DanUK
Agreed!

There are a few people (in other threads I might say!) who are always looking to pick tops and bottoms. I say make it easy for yourself and trade only what the chart shows!

Regards,

Dan
Well put, Dan. Real nice place ya got here.

Joe
  • #787
  • Nov 6, 2009 1:57am Nov 6, 2009 1:57am
Hey dan how do you determine a trade reversal?

or what are the signals and hints that a trend is becoming weak or will show weakness?
  • #788
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:50am Nov 6, 2009 3:50am
Quoting Ninja
Well put, Dan. Real nice place ya got here.

Joe
Thanks Joe! Actually I'm quite proud of the growing family we have here. It's nice to be able to discuss trade ideas etc with like minded, decent folk!

Regards,

Dan
  • #789
  • Nov 6, 2009 3:57am Nov 6, 2009 3:57am
long time since someone called me decent, including my better half ;-)

Quoting DanUK
Thanks Joe! Actually I'm quite proud of the growing family we have here. It's nice to be able to discuss trade ideas etc with like minded, decent folk!

Regards,

Dan
  • #790
  • Nov 6, 2009 4:04am Nov 6, 2009 4:04am
Quoting IliaM
Hey dan how do you determine a trade reversal?

or what are the signals and hints that a trend is becoming weak or will show weakness?
Hi IliaM,

Well the first thing to bear in mind is that I am looking at the longer term trade; not anticipating my bias to change for weeks, months or possibly even years!

With that in mind I don't see a trend change as being a sudden occurrence. I am aware that a major trend change is the result of fundamentals changing... so I always keep that in mind too.

But from a trading aspect I am looking for a few things to happen. Most likely a period of congestion occurring before a change of trend... then I will be looking at a daily chart for guidance - higher highs, higher lows in an uptrend - lower highs, lower lows in a downtrend. I will also be looking at the daily chart for trendlines and major levels of support and resistance.

This is the sort of thing I would look for:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1242153812
  • #791
  • Nov 6, 2009 7:02am Nov 6, 2009 7:02am
1.4900 holding up as some major resistance... not surprising if you look back at how this level has acted in the past!
  • #792
  • Nov 6, 2009 8:22am Nov 6, 2009 8:22am
we might well see that breached. i would think the only thing that would make the $ strong would be real economic growth

Quoting DanUK
1.4900 holding up as some major resistance... not surprising if you look back at how this level has acted in the past!
  • #793
  • Nov 6, 2009 9:11am Nov 6, 2009 9:11am
hey dan ok in ur immage you have the price break the resistance however if u look at the over all image the price could just be retracing and still goes from top of the chart to the bottom making a down trend. i guess what im asking is how can you use the market info to predict a break.
  • #794
  • Nov 6, 2009 9:30am Nov 6, 2009 9:30am
Quoting coolshades
we might well see that breached. i would think the only thing that would make the $ strong would be real economic growth
Fingers crossed!
  • #795
  • Nov 6, 2009 9:36am Nov 6, 2009 9:36am
Quoting IliaM
hey dan ok in ur immage you have the price break the resistance however if u look at the over all image the price could just be retracing and still goes from top of the chart to the bottom making a down trend. i guess what im asking is how can you use the market info to predict a break.
Yes that's right however I would be trading it off of the 4 hour chart so the left to right thing would be slightly different.

Personally I don't try to predict a change of direction. The reason is that a change in the overall trend (particularly with E/U) happens very rarely - you are much better off by betting on a continuation of the trend. Let's go back a couple of months to July/August - we had a lot of congestion and a lot of people saying it was a change of trend... but I couldn't see any evidence in a change of trend... just a bunch of congestion. So my preference was to stick with the uptrend! And it continued - eventually.

I honestly don't think anyone can consistently predict long term trend changes before they happen. I think a broken clock can be right twice a day but other than that I wouldn't try it!

Sorry I can't really answer your question - but hopefully that will explain a bit about how I see things!

Regards,

Dan

Edit... PS I'm away from the computer this weekend so I won't be able to reply to any questions but please ask if you have any and I will respond on Monday!
  • #796
  • Nov 6, 2009 10:14am Nov 6, 2009 10:14am
Maybe this sounds "amateurish" even though im a rookie .
But, i truly believe it isnt a case of predicting market change at all.

If it does break strongly and still not "sure" if it WAS a real change in direction its best to sit on your hands UNTIL it proves itself that it truly HAS changed direction. If in doubt...stay out.

It isnt about entering at the beginning of a trend change.

Its all about taking advantage of the trend (be it a lot or a little) ONCE it has confirmed its change in sentiment.

Anything else, IMHO is picking tops/bottoms.

However, like Dan and other members say, its best to "bet" on the existing trend. And with E/U that is up.

my 2 cents and a nickle lol
  • #797
  • Nov 9, 2009 5:12am Nov 9, 2009 5:12am
Quoting Pipalicious
Maybe this sounds "amateurish" even though im a rookie .
But, i truly believe it isnt a case of predicting market change at all.

If it does break strongly and still not "sure" if it WAS a real change in direction its best to sit on your hands UNTIL it proves itself that it truly HAS changed direction. If in doubt...stay out.

It isnt about entering at the beginning of a trend change.

Its all about taking advantage of the trend (be it a lot or a little) ONCE it has confirmed its change in sentiment.

Anything else, IMHO is picking...
That's what I'm talking about!

The trend really is your friend!

Somewhere I heard that the reason most retail traders (like you and I) fail was because they are always trying to predict where the market will turn (picking tops & bottoms) and the reason pros succeed is because they follow the flow (the trend). May not be 100% true but it seems to work for me!

Regards,

Dan
  • #798
  • Nov 9, 2009 5:13am Nov 9, 2009 5:13am
... and I think someone else once said they weren't interested with the top or the bottom - just the meat in the middle!
  • #799
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:38am Nov 11, 2009 8:38am
I have an area earmarked for the GU, I'm hoping price will move down to the bottom trendline, somewhere in the region of 1.6550 and 1.6500 I think we might see a little support in these areas. 1.6550 would be ideal with the added support of the 50% fib line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 11th nov.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #800
  • Nov 11, 2009 8:45am Nov 11, 2009 8:45am
If the move continues to rise to the top trendline, the chances are a possible retrace to 1.4850, no trendline in this area to assist, it may be further into the week or next before we have confluence here, still an area of interest all the same. No guarantees.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 11th nov.jpg Size: 103 KB
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