High Probability

r1 is hit now what?

there is a bit of divergence macd on the 1h that suggests upside...
but where would the next target be?
200ema on the 30min?

I want to wait for a clear entry signal.
until I get a good entry signal I don;tneed to do anything
even if I can figure out where it's gping, without a good entry signal I might have to sit through a scary retracement that I don't want to put a large amt of risk out for.
This is where I have gotten into trouble in the past, I'm sure I know ehaere it's going, jump in and even if pa does eventuallky go there becasue it wasn't a good entry point (low risk) I either got stopped out at my tolerance point, or had to go through contortions until everything went the way I needed it to.
I don't need that.
I just need a clear entry point with low risk... And then 5 ,10 or 20 pips on 4 lots and I'm done...
That's what I am looking for. If I don't see it today, I will look for it tomorrow.
I just don't believe this upside pre NY mkts has much wind at it's back, I fully expect a turn around and that I will get my entry signal for entry short...

FXDD just did a mass emailing with news updates
All the servers go down when they do that, and they mass email several times a day.
I've email;ed them about it and will talk to their chat rep.
but right now I'm trying to spot a set up as I see macd divergence building on the 1m for a turn around and NY equities have turned down also..
I may switch to forex.com. I am testing their demo to see how often their servers go down, so far so good,
it will have to be good bye to FXDD unless they fix it.
It's going on 5 minutes now and this can last up to 20 min...
This isn't going to work.....

on the phone playing tech support for the last hour..
very nice treatment by tech support. working hard ot figure out the problem... but no solution, will get back with me later...
would have been a great entry point, maybe it isn't supposed to happen for me today...

the 200 ema on the 30 m...
The retrace could go to the r2 and the 200 ema on the 60m.
there's all that divergence in macd playing out on both the 30 and 60

I saw it all this morning, but I didn't trade it.
At least I am able to see it, eventually I will be able trade these nicely.
My thinking is turn around time r2 and 200 ema on 1hr...

do I see a set up forming?
lunch time NY...
divergence macd 1 m.

nice little counter trend going to 200ema? he way I feel today is I have been calling the moves all morning and been right on, if I decided to put money on this call it would turn around and bite me in the .....
I'm glad I'm not in the market today. My head isn't right...
I guess I just don't trust the rally in EUR.
Expect a sell off in the afternoon.
Anyway, I'm not in the market so if I am wrong I don't lose anything.

as soon as I entered turned around and back up we go.
the NY mkts don't support any downside.
Not the kind of trade i want to place.
Will need to take a big draw down...
to ride it out..
it's r2 before anyone even stops to take a deep breath...
The signals were there and even super rsi flashed a bit of read, which disappeared as soon as I got in...
but it is counter trend.
the nemesis...

if the NY mkts turn around and sell off a bit in the afternoon, which they could very well do, problem solved....

bailed out
took the loss,
just not my day..
-12 pipsx4=-48 pips...
trade with the trend!!!!!

all these nice entry points and I enter the counter trend.....
there is something about my thinking that is not right.
I need to fix it.
I don't trust a trend.
It's crazy.
But I see a strong trend and I want to go against it.
Like a dog barking at an automobile tire.
It is so ingrained.
That I can't even see the signals when they are right there in front of me.
at least I know what I need to work on.

I think what happens is:
My strategy is to enter for 5 to 10 pips with 4 lots, look for the best set ups only,
but when there are big moves, and I also have a big gain I forget that I am not trying to stay in for a big move. My mind set loses the scalper's focus and I mix my goals.
Day charts, 30 min charts.
I don't need that for a 5 or 10 pip move on a signal.
So I am thinking long term when I need to be thinking short term.
The signals are there but I can't see them. Like I am far sighted or something.
Or maybe my eyes are bigger than my stomach...
Greedy..
I can work on this. Becoming aware is the beginning of the solution...

So to try to do some repair work on the trading damage today. I entered short with the idea of catching a fade after the big rally (which I missed entirely due to blurry farsighted vision).
tgt is 43 pipsx4= +172 pips
tgt is intersection of 200 ema and r1 on 5 min
macd is divergent...
I actually called the days trading perfectly this morning, but why I traded against my own analysis all day is big puzzle to me. I called it perfectly. The journal has documented my calls. But I traded against myself all day???
What! am I training to become a bucket shop broker or something???
Awareness is the start of the solution....

but I think today and maybe tomorrow are the last opportunities to get out of equities before significant pullback, sell the rally, as such the dollar will gain strength after the rallies are done.

closed position
10 pips x 4= 40 pips
down for the day, -12 pips x4= -48 pips
with my work cut out for me tomorrow
trade the signals, don't worry about long term this and that...
trade with the trend....
don't over trade 1 or 2 trades is plenty....
look for 5 to 10 pips quickly.
200 ema, and pivots as tgts...

I would like to try your system. Your work is impressive. Would you post or PM me your indy's and template.

Thanks,

Steve

have seen you on LOHAD's thread, I'm pretty much using a variation of his work...
Just for possible future use, is there a way to send indis and temps over pm? other than attaching the written out code files??
you probably already have the indis if you've been testing LOHAD's. I've just changed some colors to my own preference..
I'll post my template and if you're missing something let me know....

this is what I am looking for...