High Probability

sent you a rather long pm...

a little practice on sim
looking for cross of macd supported by 3TF rsi, the ashi twins, and support and resistances.

data out in 15 mins...
could be a mover,
let's see.
lot of pressure for downside on the day chart,
big divergence in macd,
robby turning down

has bounced off 200 ema 4hr.
where would the likely target be?
Where would there be alot of big orders waiting?
back up to the pivot?
or down to s1 below 200ema?

macd on 1h is showing upside potential.
a retest of r1 when it intersects with 200 ema?

same formation almost exactly on the 30 min,
intersection of r1 and the 200 ema...
macd divergence...
upside?

kinda mixed,
no big surprises
no big mkt moves.
took a trade in the demo just because...
I don't trade the 5m but this is on the 5 m

moved tgt to pivot

closed for +4 pips micro.. demo..

2 mins to new home sales

+30 pips.
in too early, short, had to ride a 25 pip retracement, nerves shot by the time it turned around, so as soon as there was a little profit I jumped out.
there were at least 15 more pips in that move... but I was so frazzled from the 25 pip retracement, I just jumped out as soon as I saw +5...
The trade didn't go quite like I had envisioned, although it was a good trade.
I think that is why I just jumped out at the first op.
Also there is not a clear target. s1 is miles away.
and the pivot hangs tantalizingly just above...
you know there must still be some orders sitting at the pivot...
even if the predominant force is down, there is someone sitting above at the pivot looking to short at a good price.
So there could very well be some significant upside before dropping lower.
That's it for the day.
no over trading, no giving back...
I want to aim for one good trade per day. I had hoped for a better trade, to bring in maybe 20pipsx4 lots... but I'll take the +30 total and try again tomorrow..
account is up 13% for week...

looks like s1
total move about 50 pips now if I had multiplied it by 4, that would be 200 pips.
I don't want to get ahead of myself. Let me find one good trade every day. 10 to 20 pips x 4 lots..
but I see these bigger moves are there.
The targets are valid.
I will see how to recognize these longer moves with a good amount of certainty eventually. For now let me concentrate on my daily goal.

big divergence in macd on 15m
gdp big mkt mover on tap 1 hour before us equity mkt opens..
wouldn't be surprised to see some retracing to r1 as it intersects with 200 ema on the 15 m...
same macd divergence appears on higher time frames, like the 60m
only thing is macd divergence does not always indicate a big retracement and if it does the retracement may not start for quite some time with alot more downside before a turn around.
gdp data tomorrow and expectations. The mkts are already in the take profit mode so further downside is likely.... if gdp doesn't have a really big upside surprise it's hard to stop the train once it's headed down the track...
guess is upside retracement towards r1 right up until gdp then back down we go towards s2 at 1.4585.

a retrace to the pivot may be as high as we go.

not going to put any money behind it, but I see the intersection of 200 ema and r1 as the next stop before a big turn down after gdp...

have been hanging out in the forum lounge too much..
just like with any work or occupation, cannot hang out in a lounge too much...
Another distraction on the way to professionalism...

am running 2 demos to compare
have a recently opened account with FXDD linked to zulu, but the server goes down everytime they mail updates and stays down for sometimes 20 minutes!!!
Have emailed them about it will see the response if any, I think they they are just overloading the serves by mass mailing..
I am testing Forex.com to see how much downtime they have, spreads, etc. and will switch accounts if need be....
too scary, 20 mins down............................ happens every day several times per day....
they need to just stagger the emailings.......
wonder if they'll get it??

gonna take the trade in both demos...
will look for good set up later to trade live after gdp....

r1 and 200 ema intersection

somehow I don't want to be long the EUR with the equity mkts looking like correction time...
may or may not make it to r1..
tried 2 times and pulled back,
my guess is downside when NY stock mkts open after a higher open,,, maybe even up until late morning, maybe even all day, but downside will resume for lower lows.
If I can't figure out a trade I feel confident about I don't have to trade.
Sometimes that's the best thing to do....