High Probability

since I am having so much trouble making friends with the trend I am going to reinstate a technique I have used in the past. on the next higher time frame identify the trend using 2nd ashi smothed and cross of lwma, draw a red vertical for down and green vertical for up, that would be on the 5 m, switch to 1 min and the vert lines bleed through... That's the trend on the 1 min and look for signals on the 1m that trade with it...

okay the focus...
identify on 5 min and look for signals on 1 min
am in this trade but cannot do screen shot, another account, no charts...

closed for +6 pips will look for more signals on 1 min in dire3ction of trend for reentry
actually a fresh trend change on 5 min would be better.
remembering I am looking for quick moves with low risk...

as great as mt4 is, I sure wish the charts would allow seeing more beyond where pa is , like higher up, lower down,
anyway this hit the 200ema on the 5 min...
would like to find a fresh signal on the 1 min

account was up 13% for the week until I lost focus yesterday, still up for the week, but only up 3%...

most likely pa is going to test the 200 on the 1m, but trend is still down on the 5 m
I am so tempted to take the trade,
but this iswhere Iget into trouble.
even if it is a good trade it is against the rules...
it would weaken my focus.
which is easily eroded by small deviations...
then before you know it I have a day like yesterday..... down 10% before I even knew what hit me...
small deviations, bending the rules, if I get away with it I am inclined to do it more, small successes and then bam, a big loss..
don't need it, let me stay on the horse.......

German retail and G.Britain hpi

poor numbers for data

still wants to go to test the 200 even after poor data from EUR and GBP
5 min still consolidating,
robby is over bought but price action is a very low high..
still hanging on, looking for downside to the pivot...
have switched to 1 micro lot trades,
was using 4 micros but I don;t have this down good enough to increase the risk 4x..

tgt pivot

now if I can stay in tilll it reaches the pivot andnot jump out early like I always do.

could have taken 7 pips, but decided to wait for reach of tgt, pivot,
next time take the pips.....can always get back in later
now the pa has reached the 200 for a test or a break through?
need to think more short term....

test of 200 will forget about big tgt, just look for 5 to 10 pips

out.. +14 pips for day..
trend technique working...

pivot
there are reasons why pa goes to the pivot
there orders waiting there....

total for day so far +19
so the way the strategy is working is:
trend identified on 5 min
signal on 1m
charts below:
on 5m, would look for 2 ashi smoothed lime green for a change of trend.
or signal short on 1 min for a short.
so far 1m is retracing, 2 ashi smoothed lime green would indicate a change of trend from down to up...
then look for long signal on 1m
NY mkts open 8 mins

little bit of a false start with ppi data,
5 m showed 2 green ashi smoothed, but to look more closely I see lwma did not cross below ashi smoothed,
entered long and was stopped out 1 lot 22 pips
then the direction became clear with the second ashi white on the 5 min, and good stron short signal on 1 min, opened 4 lots shorts,
so -22 pips + 70 pips + 19pips earlier, - 41 pips bad trades
=+26 pips for the day (more or less)
trend identification and ashi smoothed on 5 min is central....

gotta watch zulu settings
not connected properly
only allowed 1 lot,
placed 4,
so only credited with 1 lot
bit of a bummer
so many booby traps...
we'll get it all together...

some good trades today!!!!
yeeha....

the same scenario
looking for 2 green ashi smoothed on 5 min to indicate a trend change (and make sure everything is lined up, lwma, ashi and ashi smoothed...
or a fresh sell signal on the 1 min...