High Probability

time of day is significant
the big move was around 10 or so
the mkt was undecided for the 1st half hour.. of NY open
now as lunch time approaches, activity decreases.
after lunch picks up again and often the last hour before NY mkts close is very active.

there is a signal on the 1 min, but... so far away from 200..
s1 is about 15 pips away, si we're most likely going there..
but there couldbe a big retracement before the final lunge.
I would like to see a fresh move of robby above 80 on the 1 minute but maybe I'm just gonna miss the move...
maybe the robby cross already happened...
okay it already went

looks like pa could juswt tear right through s1 and keep going
wanna get in on it, but it is not a fresh entry signal so could be too much risk...
I opnend the 4 shorts just below the pivot point about 60pips away, closed them one at a time as the move dropped,
was going to leave one position open and trail it down, but closed it for 25 pips... if I had left it open it would be 60 pips and still going...
soooo next time....

probably hang around s1 for a while

the intersection of max non lag and lwma 10 makes a good signal confirmation..
so am adding max...
don't usually trade Tokyo but took a quick 6 pips using the new cross.

better to wait fora fresh signal on the minute after a trend is confirmed on the 5.
I am not trading the 5 min, I am trading the 1 min to reduce risk...
here I saw the trend on the 5 and immediatedly entered the 1 min. the 1 minute did not have a fresh entry signal but was almost played out on the run up...
So I think I am okay in the end, but I will have to ride out a retracement dn more risk than I want to...
Monday morning...
tgt is just below r1 not shown on chart
data out in 10 min, aussie commodity prices,,,, if good then up we go...
time changes seem to be playing havoc with schedules,
aussie data already out, ikay little better,,
htat must be one of the drivers for run up,
so now keep going?

I am seeing r1 as logical goal...
but I don't like the divergence developing in macd,
and 15 min has downward pressure robby
stop is just below pivot

so that might be it for upside from the looks of the 15 min

maybe just a test of the 200
once again, same lesson repeated until learned...
wait for a fresh signal on the 1m, otherwise the risk is very great.
a fresh signal means going in the direction of the trend very quickly.
risk greatly reduce,
no riding out retraces and meanderings,
tgt hit quickly...
Wait Wait Wait
Patience...
but this trade was ion part influenced by my thinking the data hadn't come out yet...
needed to check the calendar but the time change had me thrown off...

now the macd divergence is appearing on the 5 min

the 30 min looks good
macd just crossed over 0
and robby is above 80
and the uptrend is in tact.
but I am not looking to trade a 30 min chart..
since I am stuck in this trade I am trying to see if I should stay in it or take a loss.
the upside looks good, but there is going to be retracement until the 15 min can turn back up again, the 5 min is almost played

Cut it loose..
-9 pips, tot for day -3 pips

yup, and will most likely return to the pivot too

pivot is reached, now what
5 min is in confirmed down trend
1 min shows retracing...
consolidation around pivot for a while?
GBP data, pmi in 2 hours or is it 3 hours, time change is wacky...

would look for fresh signal short
3tf rsi would need to confirm

super rsi will definitely need to confirm a move in either direction, on both 5 and 15 min
since p-a will be coming out of consolidation...

there's that 15 min robby downside pressure played out...

no trading at work.
I need to give full attention.
Comedy of errors this morning.
1 small bad trade, cannot concentrate at work, phone rings, people come to the desk, etc., frustrating because that is very good hours for trading, London open..., but it does not work out.
bad trade, then another bad trade, then to try to fix the 2 bad trades, reversed direction and placed 3 trades, all bad....
The lucky part was I had blocked my zulu account and it would only accept one trade. So I thought I lost so much, but actually I was very lucky, I didn't lose anything... the 1 bad trade was offset by 1 good trade I had taken durig Tokyo at my safe and quiet trading desk at home.
So I was spared this time, let me learn another lesson.
Take this seriously. I can read and study and do the simulator etc at work, but no live trading....
I was lucky this time...
Now here at my trading desk at home I have now 2 good trades. +6 and +9..
I am ever amazed at all the millions of pitfalls. The strategy and system are very good, they work very nicely. It is me that is a mess. If there is pile of doo doo I will step in it....
I guess it is learn the hard way for some of us.
+ another 7pips
not at work trading = +22 pips
at work = -19
the results speak for themselves...

I can't believe the difference in charts.
Evidently different data feeds for FXCM and FXDD
completely different...
no wonder I had so much trouble trading FXCM,
I have both running, and FXCM server has gone down 3 times this morning...
I was thinking of switching brokers but FXDD is looking better and better, fixed 2 pip spreads EURUSD..
Very helpful customer service and tech support...
FXDD servers would go down when they emailed updates on mkt activity but no problem so far today.
comparing these 2 charts of EURUSD 1m, FXDD has so much more detail.

boy is it hard not to jump in and take this counter trend trade
I KNOW it's going to the intersection of 200 and r1...
but it is not worth it.
a little deviation from the discipline of the system can cause huge problems even if the trade is good for a few pips
they are ill gotten, like a cheating on a partner,
yes I will think of the trading system as a partner...
a friend, a business partner, someone important to me, a valued relationship and I will not jeopardize our relationship by going outside of it for so called gains...
Yes that's it, a partnership. The trading strategy is good and trusted friend who is doing the best they can to hold up their end of things... I will not undermine them.
Yes I like that analogy.
I must become trustworthy. I have a responsibility to the system... if the system is to be successful.
I have a responsible relationship, I cannot go wondering off here and there tasting other fruit, I am bound to my strategy. To my system. My own character is at stake. What to speak of success in trading.
So yes this retracement is as obvious as the nose on my face, but I am bound by responsibility not to deviate...

I am remembering now,
As a teenager I was sent to summer camp, a religious summer camp, one of the workshops was begun by the teacher giving everyone a Hershey's bar as we entered the class room and we were told not to eat it.
Then the teacher came around with the waste basket and told us all to throw the candy bars in the trash can.
That was a hard thing for me to do at the time. My first lesson in sacrifice. Why sacrifice?
For something higher...
Discipline, sacrifice, needed to reach higher goals...
I am so slow to catch on.These counter trend trades are Hershey bars,
I must discard them for something higher...