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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #701
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:42pm Oct 21, 2009 4:42pm
Some examples of possible missing trades although I'm still in the first one but even the last one and getting in @1.0150 has got us to break even.
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  • #702
  • Oct 22, 2009 2:52am Oct 22, 2009 2:52am
good going on usdchf cr. i have had my first loss on this system. i was short on usdjpy at 90.5 last week and that has finally played itself out.

i have decided not to go long on gbpjpy as posted earlier. i do think that pair is trending up, however gbpjpy is a right monster and gobbles up 100 pip sl for evening tea.

i have placed a pending buy at 0.92 on audusd.



Quoting castlerock
Some examples of possible missing trades although I'm still in the first one but even the last one and getting in @1.0150 has got us to break even.Attachment
  • #703
  • Edited 7:27pm Oct 22, 2009 7:25pm | Edited 7:27pm
Still trundling along in the Euro at the moment, entered at 1.4900 area after price found 1.4850 a stumbling block.

Actual (late) Entry: 1.4917
Stop loss: 1.4817
Break even point when reached 1.5017 (achieved)
Next target 1.5117 to lock in 100 pips

Reason for entry: 50% Retrace, Trendline, Round Number.
Price almost reached 50% but did hit the bottom trendline, just below 1.4850, entered 50 pips later (ideally, but forgot to put auto entry on, hence missing by 17 pips)

I am expecting price to react around 1.5100/20 (with a possible retrace of 50%) before reaching my second target (1.5117), These figures would be round numbers if I hadn't missed the entry by 17 pips.

At the moment the overall trend is down since 15th July 2008 using the daily chart, the retrace has broken the 61.8% barrier from that main move down, because it has passed the 61.8% I see no reason for it NOT to continue the upward momentum to at least 1.5150 (76.4% of retrace from 15th July 2008).
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  • #704
  • Oct 23, 2009 1:15am Oct 23, 2009 1:15am
no its not!

Quoting Xj8

At the moment the overall trend is down since 15th July 2008 using the daily chart, t.
  • #705
  • Oct 23, 2009 4:56am Oct 23, 2009 4:56am
Whether we are now in an uptrend or down trend with the GU. SR levels on the higher time frames have a lot of clout imo and can be used nicely with Dan's method. see post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98028&page=285
  • #706
  • Oct 23, 2009 5:25am Oct 23, 2009 5:25am
Quoting coolshades
no its not!

Draw a fib from the highest point on a daily chart 1.6038 15th July 2008 to todays price then tell me I'm wrong.

Based on the highest point we're currently in a retrace which is obviously going up and has not quite reached the 76.4% level, last line of defence.

Reallistically when using the 4 hour chart you have to be looking for buy opportunities as the shorter (if you can call it that) trend is UP, that'll be why I have been looking for buys and currently in one.
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  • #707
  • Oct 23, 2009 6:16am Oct 23, 2009 6:16am
Due to misreading a previous fib I posted inaccurate information and deleted that post.

Post number 673 indicated an area for a sell, it hit 1.6650 3 times on the 4 hour chart and failed to close above it, a sell order was placed at 1.6600, within one candle I moved to break even and have since locked in 100 pips profit when it reached 1.6400.

So far I am still in 2 trades, GU (sell) +100 locked in profit and EU (buy) Break Even with 1.5117 as the first profit level.

A break of the upward trendline and a confirmed area of resistance does allow to take the odd trade against the trend (GU) price could possibly move to a 50% retrace at 1.6200 or push for the 61.8% level at around 1.6100 before continuing its course back up. I'll be looking for suuport in these areas before considering a buy.
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  • #708
  • Oct 23, 2009 12:31pm Oct 23, 2009 12:31pm
i have no clue what you are talking about and no idea which pair you are referring to. in your previous post you said eurousd was in a downtrend as evidenced from the daily chart, and i just cant see that. the low of 4th march 2009 had a price of 1.2456 and as i type, the price is1.5033. the highest price on the 15th of july was 1.4135.

which pair ARE you referring to?




Quoting Xj8
Draw a fib from the highest point on a daily chart 1.6038 15th July 2008 to todays price then tell me I'm wrong.

Based on the highest point we're currently in a retrace which is obviously going up and has not quite reached the 76.4% level, last line of defence.

Reallistically when using the 4 hour chart you have to be looking for buy opportunities as the shorter (if you can call it that) trend is UP, that'll be why I have been looking for buys and currently in one.
  • #709
  • Edited 1:46pm Oct 23, 2009 1:31pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting coolshades
i have no clue what you are talking about and no idea which pair you are referring to. in your previous post you said eurousd was in a downtrend as evidenced from the daily chart, and i just cant see that. the low of 4th march 2009 had a price of 1.2456 and as i type, the price is1.5033. the highest price on the 15th of july was 1.4135.

which pair ARE you referring to?
Post 706 is titled Euro Trend, speaks for itself. The highest point on the Euro is 1.6038 on the 15th July 2008 a point where I'm taking the OVERALL trend from, down to 1.2329 28th October 2008, from this OVERALL down trend the price has RETRACED to its current position 1.5059, the 76.4% retrace which is the last line of defence is sitting at 1.5153 I posted a picture to accompany my explanation, I didn't mention any low point so 4th March 2009 means nothing to me.

I am referring to the price on the 15th July 2008 as I made clear in my post (#706) NOT 2009.

PS. I did make one error in my post (706), when I said "Draw a fib from the highest point on the daily chart 1.6038 15th July 2008 to todays price...", I failed to mention the low point of the fib, what I should have said was "Draw a fib from the highest point on the daily chart 1.6038 15th July 2008 to the low of 28th October 2008, the retrace of todays price takes us to almost the 76.4% level of that OVERALL DOWNTREND".

I appologise if that was the reason for the confusion.
  • #710
  • Oct 25, 2009 1:07am Oct 25, 2009 1:07am
great thread guys,like the way you help each other out
  • #711
  • Edited 1:13pm Oct 26, 2009 12:43pm | Edited 1:13pm
Did not allow price to take me to break even so I checked out with +74 pips, price did eventually retrace to my break even point at 1.5117. The EU may continue its move down to 1.4800 (close to 50%) or 1.4700 (61.8% and a rising trendline).

38.2% level (1.4850) is a take profit point, so a little stumbling may occur here, not somewhere I would get in though. My preffered area would be the bottom trendline backed up by the 61.8% retrace and 1.4700 round number, I doubt it will reach this soon enough though.

Secondary point later in the week would be 1.4800 when the trendline would be closer to the 50% retrace point.

Still currently in a GU sell trade, entered at 1.6600, locked in 200 pips when it reached 1.6300, was within 5 pips at being stopped out when it moved back up from 1.6250 to 1.6395, hoping to lock in 300 pips when or if it reaches 1.6200.
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  • #712
  • Oct 26, 2009 4:23pm Oct 26, 2009 4:23pm
can i ask how you are trading? trying to figure out your system and how it coincides with dan's system.

also break even price for eurousd @ 1.5117? have you held that trade for a year?

Quoting Xj8
Did not allow price to take me to break even so I checked out with +74 pips, price did eventually retrace to my break even point at 1.5117. The EU may continue its move down to 1.4800 (close to 50%) or 1.4700 (61.8% and a rising trendline).

38.2% level (1.4850) is a take profit point, so a little stumbling may occur here, not somewhere I would get in though. My preffered area would be the bottom trendline backed up by the 61.8% retrace and 1.4700 round number, I doubt it will reach this soon enough though.

Secondary point later in the week would...
  • #713
  • Oct 26, 2009 8:40pm Oct 26, 2009 8:40pm
Looking at the 1.4700/50 mark for a long if we get the right signals here.
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  • #714
  • Oct 27, 2009 5:45am Oct 27, 2009 5:45am
Quoting coolshades
can i ask how you are trading? trying to figure out your system and how it coincides with dan's system.

also break even price for eurousd @ 1.5117? have you held that trade for a year?
Page 47 Post 703, go back to that post, you will see I have followed Dans system accurately, entry was at 1.4917 (round number was missed, I was out and caught it 17 pips late). Reason I entered as explained in post 703: 50% retrace, Trendline and round number ALL DAN'S METHODS.

I have NOT held this Euro trade for over a year, when you learn context you learn to look at the larger picture, in this case I was looking to see where the retrace had reached from the bigger move down since 2008 in this case 76.4%, looking into a buy might not be wise until that level is broken.

I entered the Euro trade on the 20th October 2009, when price failed to break below 1.4850 I entered at 1.4917, should have been 1.4900 but I forgot to put on an autotrade and nearly missed it. All Dan's rules were adhered to bar one, that was where I recognised price was dropping fast and I pulled out at +74 pips profit, but that part can be subjective, sometimes you just know when price won't stop and it WILL hit your SL.

I hope that answers your last question.
  • #715
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:02am Oct 27, 2009 6:02am
Quoting Xj8
Page 47 Post 703, go back to that post, you will see I have followed Dans system accurately, entry was at 1.4917 (round number was missed, I was out and caught it 17 pips late). Reason I entered as explained in post 703: 50% retrace, Trendline and round number ALL DAN'S METHODS.

I have NOT held this Euro trade for over a year, when you learn context you learn to look at the larger picture, in this case I was looking to see where the retrace had reached from the bigger move down since 2008 in this case 76.4%, looking into a buy might not be wise...
understand that your fibo was drawn from 12th oct. an't figure out why u drew from there? zooming out of the 4h chart the obvious low was from 2oct so why did you not draw from there?

hope you can explain this. thanks
  • #716
  • Oct 27, 2009 6:43am Oct 27, 2009 6:43am
Quoting herzog21
understand that your fibo was drawn from 12th oct. an't figure out why u drew from there? zooming out of the 4h chart the obvious low was from 2oct so why did you not draw from there?

hope you can explain this. thanks
There were two point where I could have taken this fib from. 1. from the 2nd of October to 15th gave a retrace level of 23.6% (profit taking level) or from the 12th (or 9th) which gave a 50% retrace, either way it was confirming a possible area of interest coupled with a trendline and a round number.

The reason I felt the 9th/12th was a good point for a fib, when dropping down to a one hour chart there was a lot more activity at the 1.4700 level, this level was tested 3 times over a 3 day period.

Fibs are not an exact science and are subject to the traders preferrences and personal reasoning, I simply chose that point because it fitted my style of trading.
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  • #717
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:43am Oct 27, 2009 7:43am
am not criticising. was curious about your style. this is dan's thread and not mine.

t

Quoting Xj8
Page 47 Post 703, go back to that post, you will see I have followed Dans system accurately, entry was at 1.4917 (round number was missed, I was out and caught it 17 pips late). Reason I entered as explained in post 703: 50% retrace, Trendline and round number ALL DAN'S METHODS.

I have NOT held this Euro trade for over a year, when you learn context you learn to look at the larger picture, in this case I was looking to see where the retrace had reached from the bigger move down since 2008 in this case 76.4%, looking into a buy might not be...
  • #718
  • Oct 27, 2009 7:50am Oct 27, 2009 7:50am
Quoting Xj8
There were two point where I could have taken this fib from. 1. from the 2nd of October to 15th gave a retrace level of 23.6% (profit taking level) or from the 12th (or 9th) which gave a 50% retrace, either way it was confirming a possible area of interest coupled with a trendline and a round number.

The reason I felt the 9th/12th was a good point for a fib, when dropping down to a one hour chart there was a lot more activity at the 1.4700 level, this level was tested 3 times over a 3 day period.

Fibs are not an exact science and are subject to...
i understand now.
i will wait and see if the price bounce off your 50% fibo. and perhaps i will consider a buy for EU.
else if it drops lower i might redraw the fibo from 2nd oct low to 26th high and buy from there.

thanks...
  • #719
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:16am Oct 27, 2009 8:16am
Quoting herzog21
i understand now.
i will wait and see if the price bounce off your 50% fibo. and perhaps i will consider a buy for EU.
else if it drops lower i might redraw the fibo from 2nd oct low to 26th high and buy from there.

thanks...
Because of the recent move down, I have taken my fib points back a bit to see if there is a clearer picture where price might retrace to, I have redrawn my trendline from the low of 4th Sept, the fib I am taking from 2nd Oct.

Now the trendline and the 50% fib are looking good around 1.4750/1.4800. The reason I have redrawn the trendline, the previous one saw price break and close well below it, invalidating that particular trendline.

Using Fib 2 from the 9th October will take us to 76.4% retrace level, the trendline and 1.4750 round number

Using Fib 1 from 2nd October will take us to a 50% retrace, the trendline and 1.4750 round number, the SAME point of interest.

I'll be looking for some interaction around 1.4750 for a possible buy signal.
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  • #720
  • Oct 27, 2009 8:31am Oct 27, 2009 8:31am
on dailies too same point of interest.

Quoting Xj8
Because of the recent move down, I have taken my fib points back a bit to see if there is a clearer picture where price might retrace to, I have redrawn my trendline from the low of 4th Sept, the fib I am taking from 2nd Oct.

Now the trendline and the 50% fib are looking good around 1.4750/1.4800. The reason I have redrawn the trendline, the previous one saw price break and close well below it, invalidating that particular trendline.

Using Fib 2 from the 9th October will take us to 76.4% retrace level, the trendline and 1.4750 round number

Using...
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