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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #681
  • Oct 20, 2009 3:16pm Oct 20, 2009 3:16pm
Just check the charts and looks like price is reacting off that resistance at 6500. There has been quite a sharp move back down and price has broken support at 6350 and is now retesting this area. I have placed a sell limit at 6400 for the asian session and will reevaluate in the morning.

The 50% fib of todays move back down is around the 6400 and shorting here will result in a better stop position as this will be at 6500. If it doesn't retest 6400 then i will reasses in the morning.

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Steve
  • #682
  • Oct 20, 2009 4:25pm Oct 20, 2009 4:25pm
hey guys when do you think is a good area to take profit for the GU ?
It would be nice if it went down to the 50% fib however if it dose not. should i close position on any upward pull back and open another at the peak of a pull back?
  • #683
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:20am Oct 21, 2009 12:20am
Well my sell limit was hit at 6400 during the asian so lets see what today brings!

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  • #684
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:36am Oct 21, 2009 2:36am
Stopped out. Wow, i have not taken to this too well so far, 3 out of 3 losses. I can only get better i suppose!
  • #685
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:05am Oct 21, 2009 5:05am
not sure how you are trading. i have seen some of the charts you have posted in the past, but they dont really adhere to dan's system.

dan's system is very very very simple.

check trend on weekly, daily and h4 charts

based on long term trend, drill down to h4 charts

draw trend lines on h4 charts

draw fib from most recent swing high to most recent swing low.

it will be good if the 50% fib coincides iwth a s/r level

check how prices on h1 react to 50%fib, rounded off to nearest XX.50, or XX.00

enter if price closes on or around XX.50 or XX.00 in favour of trend.

as simple as that

based on this system i think castle has made about 800 pips, i have made 500 odd pips and Dan is busy getting his fleet of Jaguars waxed and polished.



yesterday's cable trade was iffy to me and hence i didnt enter it. but i think it was a trade that stuck to the rules of the system and hence if i had taken that trade, i wouldnt have minded that loss



Quoting steveshutts
Stopped out. Wow, i have not taken to this too well so far, 3 out of 3 losses. I can only get better i suppose!
  • #686
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:11am Oct 21, 2009 5:11am
My GU sell at 1.6454 was stopped out a BE.
  • #687
  • Oct 21, 2009 5:29am Oct 21, 2009 5:29am
ricky,
that's good. imo cable is in an uptrend now.

to be honest, cable was always in an uptrend. see the charts on daily for the last 8-9 months. its just that we had a retracement aug onwards. i wil be watchng the 1.64 level for buying opportunities.

usual disclaimer - forget everyting i say the moment you read it.

Quoting RickyRudy
My GU sell at 1.6454 was stopped out a BE.
  • #688
  • Oct 21, 2009 9:49am Oct 21, 2009 9:49am
Yip stopped out JUST LOL.
  • #689
  • Oct 21, 2009 9:52am Oct 21, 2009 9:52am
i got stopped out too.

what are ur thoughts toward an AH trade @ 1.6550 ?? to target 1.6400 ??
  • #690
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:04am Oct 21, 2009 10:04am
Hi, like coolshades said looks like it could be in an uptrend now.
  • #691
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:13am Oct 21, 2009 10:13am
Looks like it has gone to far for my liking to get into a AH trade but thats just my thoughts and i think the bias might be changing to bullish just my thoughts though.
  • #692
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:34am Oct 21, 2009 10:34am
i personally wld use AH only on pairs that are very strongly trendign like AU, NU or EU


Quoting IliaM
i got stopped out too.

what are ur thoughts toward an AH trade @ 1.6550 ?? to target 1.6400 ??
  • #693
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:36am Oct 21, 2009 10:36am
on another note, i am missing too many trades. AU at 9200 was a buy for me and stupidly i missed it.
  • #694
  • Oct 21, 2009 10:43am Oct 21, 2009 10:43am
Quoting coolshades
not sure how you are trading. i have seen some of the charts you have posted in the past, but they dont really adhere to dan's system.

dan's system is very very very simple.

check trend on weekly, daily and h4 charts

based on long term trend, drill down to h4 charts

draw trend lines on h4 charts

draw fib from most recent swing high to most recent swing low.

it will be good if the 50% fib coincides iwth a s/r level

check how prices on h1 react to 50%fib, rounded off to nearest XX.50, or XX.00

enter if price closes on or around XX.50...

Yes you have a point, thanks for pointing out the rules again. I have been mainly trying to trade off s+r areas based on the daily trend. The reason for my short was that the current Daily trend was down but as you quite rightly said, if i was going to short then i should wait for the 4hr to indicate as well. In this case, the 4hr is clearly in an uptrend.

Thanks again, i will be trying to stick to the rules more!

Steve
  • #695
  • Oct 21, 2009 12:36pm Oct 21, 2009 12:36pm
not so much as sticking to the rules of this system, but sticking to a system YOU are comfortable with. lord knows i experimented with enough for the first 2 years of trading. its not as if i am suddenly successful, but this year my account is + ve.



Quoting steveshutts
Yes you have a point, thanks for pointing out the rules again. I have been mainly trying to trade off s+r areas based on the daily trend. The reason for my short was that the current Daily trend was down but as you quite rightly said, if i was going to short then i should wait for the 4hr to indicate as well. In this case, the 4hr is clearly in an uptrend.

Thanks again, i will be trying to stick to the rules more!

Steve
  • #696
  • Oct 21, 2009 2:54pm Oct 21, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting coolshades
on another note, i am missing too many trades. AU at 9200 was a buy for me and stupidly i missed it.
Hi coolshades,

Just a quicky on your aud/usd 92 trade.

Could you hava a glance on my chart?
Maybe im seeing things different to you guys.
I know ive overcomplicated things and something that i get very stuck on is fibs.

I know we use fibs 50 but i always seem to focus on the most "significant· swings which means i see trades at a deeper retracement. Maybe im wrong here since you mention using fibs on the most recent swing points...

Also, do you wait for a CLOSE above your entry price or a touch?

Maybe im sounding daft at this but im learning like you guys and i dont hesitate to ask "daft" questions. just being humble and open on my view points .

cheers and thanks for pointing out the rules. It amazes me how i overcomplicate such a simplistic method
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  • #697
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:20pm Oct 21, 2009 3:20pm
Pip,

i look at how price interacts with my level of interest. below is the h1 chart with the h4 trendlines on it. note how the h1 bars close above the 50% fib (h1 at 12 pm, 1 pm). i would have waited for one h1 bar to close above the 50% fib and then entered at 0.9200.

i am not too fussed about other swings and lows. if the 50% fib coincides with s/r levels then all the better.

i think you should understand the logic of the 50% fib. the key to trend trading as outlined by Dan, and Jacko, is to buy at a discount when price is steeply trending. fibs are used by millions of traders and the 50% fib is a nice mid level discount.

rounding of a buy price to 0.50 or 0.00 is again a 'comfort' number for human beings.

that's how Dan and Jacko have arrived at the 50% fib.



if i had taken that trade i would already be at b/e now.
we are missing too many trades or atleast i am!



Quoting Pipalicious
Hi coolshades,

Just a quicky on your aud/usd 92 trade.

Could you hava a glance on my chart?
Maybe im seeing things different to you guys.
I know ive overcomplicated things and something that i get very stuck on is fibs.

I know we use fibs 50 but i always seem to focus on the most "significant· swings which means i see trades at a deeper retracement. Maybe im wrong here since you mention using fibs on the most recent swing points...

Also, do you wait for a CLOSE above your entry price or a touch?

Maybe im sounding daft at this but im learning...
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  • #698
  • Oct 21, 2009 3:29pm Oct 21, 2009 3:29pm
i just looked at your charts properly.

note that my 50% fib is at 9211, which is rounded off to 9200 as an entry price. if fib had been above 9225 and below 9250, i would have rounded off to 9250.

ps: you flatter me by treating me as an expert!

Quoting Pipalicious
Hi coolshades,

Just a quicky on your aud/usd 92 trade.

Could you hava a glance on my chart?
Maybe im seeing things different to you guys.
I know ive overcomplicated things and something that i get very stuck on is fibs.

I know we use fibs 50 but i always seem to focus on the most "significant· swings which means i see trades at a deeper retracement. Maybe im wrong here since you mention using fibs on the most recent swing points...

Also, do you wait for a CLOSE above your entry price or a touch?

Maybe im sounding daft at this but im learning...
  • #699
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:14pm Oct 21, 2009 4:14pm
Coolshades i think you might be right in missing trades having a look back at some i also missed
  • #700
  • Oct 21, 2009 4:26pm Oct 21, 2009 4:26pm
CR, i might place a speculative long on gbpjpy if price closes above 151.3.. however off to bed now so lets see what happens in the morn.



quote=castlerock;3166740]Coolshades i think you might be right in missing trades having a look back at some i also missed[/quote]
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