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  • #153,341
  • Oct 17, 2009 10:48am Oct 17, 2009 10:48am
Quoting SerpentDove
I'm thinking GAP down on open.
hello.. why do u think there is a gap sir?
  • #153,342
  • Oct 17, 2009 10:49am Oct 17, 2009 10:49am
Quoting trading801
"$1.55 versus the euro in three and six months ".. wow.. if goldman is right. thats a 500 pip more to harvest!
who is goldman?
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #153,343
  • Oct 17, 2009 11:01am Oct 17, 2009 11:01am
Quoting CzechTrade
who is goldman?
from wikipedia

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a bank holding company that engages in investment banking, securities services and investment management. Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869, and is headquartered in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City at 85 Broad Street and has its secondary office at 30 Hudson Street, Jersey City, New Jersey.[1] The firm has offices in some financial centers and acts as a financial advisor and money manager for corporations, governments, and wealthy families around the world. Goldman is a major dealer in securities, offers its clients mergers & acquisitions advice, underwriting services, asset management, and engages in proprietary trading, and private equity deals. It is a primary dealer in the U.S. Treasury securities market.

Former Goldman Sachs employees Robert Rubin and Henry Paulson served as United States Secretary of the Treasury after leaving the firm; Rubin under President Clinton and Paulson under George W. Bush.
  • #153,344
  • Oct 17, 2009 11:07am Oct 17, 2009 11:07am
Quoting trading801
from wikipedia

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a bank holding company that engages in
thank you.. and their prediction is 1.55?
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #153,345
  • Oct 17, 2009 11:12am Oct 17, 2009 11:12am
read essenza's link!
  • #153,346
  • Edited 11:47am Oct 17, 2009 11:31am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting trading801
hello.. why do u think there is a gap sir?
Not in in order of importance but this is what I saw going into Friday's close.

1. Positive/Wishful thinking, I have shorts open from 1.8999.

2. While a double bottom was formed Friday on the 4hr, the move up from support was met with selling rather than the slingshot up off of support that has become so expected. It looked to me like distribution of euros on the way back up not accumulation.

3. The profit from the Asian session was in selling the last two sessions.

4. Equities went nowhere but down albeit not far Friday on U.S. and European exchanges.

5. Dollar is finding support in other pairs. Usd/Cad and Usd/Chf. Euro is dastardly in the way it winds up before falling back into correlations, always the last to budge. I've seen in so many times in regards to equities it turns the stomach.

I'm not ruling out 1.5, 1.55, or even 5.00 for that matter. It just doesn't seem like a smart area to get long to me. I wouldn't close longs from below 1.4 if I had them unless equities started diving panic style again.

As a side note: Take trading advice from the enemy with a grain of salt, especially if it's longer term trading advice. Goldman will have to sell their euros to someone to profit now won't they?
  • #153,347
  • Oct 17, 2009 12:07pm Oct 17, 2009 12:07pm
Goldman is also reporting 1.35 within a year.

Could they have it backwards? Something to think about.


Quote
The dollar’s “trough” will be “slightly deeper” than previously estimated, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research report this week, forecasting it will depreciate to $1.55 versus the euro in three and six months before recovering to $1.35 in a year. That compares with previous forecasts of $1.45 in three and six months.
  • #153,348
  • Oct 17, 2009 12:13pm Oct 17, 2009 12:13pm
Interesting read....whether true or not is another story, but interesting none the less.


http://forexquant.wordpress.com/tag/goldman-sachs/
  • #153,349
  • Oct 17, 2009 12:27pm Oct 17, 2009 12:27pm
EUR/USD - daily trading plan - support target 1,4620-40



Since daily two last day gave a bearish look and weekly stochastic 28,7,7 is at level 93,55, we should see a periode with support in area 1,4500-40 (look at chart - big lines in red and green is trading area)



We should be trading in MACDH area near 1,4720 - 1,4620 for some time to consolidate again with small break out, just to fool the enemy
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Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
  • #153,350
  • Oct 17, 2009 1:41pm Oct 17, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting emda
What a wonderful week! I have sold half at 1.4020 expecting a retrace... for almost +600 pips. I wonder where are now those bears in the thread calling 1.19 or less all the time...
Have a nice weekend everybody. and don't go against the FED... if they don't want dollars we don't want dollars... as simple as that.
Anyone know what's happen to emda?He is one of good traders here ,Long time nothing from him!
  • #153,351
  • Oct 17, 2009 3:24pm Oct 17, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting trading801
"$1.55 versus the euro in three and six months ".. wow.. if goldman is right. thats a 500 pip more to harvest!
They said OIL to $200 when it was at $140...how many people did they rob on that recommendation?
  • #153,352
  • Oct 17, 2009 3:34pm Oct 17, 2009 3:34pm
Trading801...

Yes, I have been bullish for USA officially since the 8th of October.....and am still bullish...

Quoting trading801
interesting concept chicky.... btw xoden u put team usa.. r u bullish on the usd
In Charts We Trust!
  • #153,353
  • Oct 17, 2009 4:04pm Oct 17, 2009 4:04pm
Quoting Chicky
I am trading AUD/USD pair for safety reasons. I conclude Australia wants strong AUD. Even if dollar gets stronger AUD may still remain strong against EUR.

Europeans may try to return the ball back into the US court because they too have to protect their economy.

AUD/JPY is another option because Japanese government is supposed to protect Yen at 85.00 level agaist USD.

Since you are aware that currency values are not decided purely on the basis of demand and supply, they are subject to government interventions. I believe this is time for them...
All over the wires at the end of last week was word of E/U 1.5 being the "pain threshold" for EZ economies. We have seen E/U turnbacks due to a variety of purported reasons: Asian sovereigns protecting key levels and, toward the end of the week, a surge in sterling strength. If the ECB talking heads and other EZ beaurocrats are going to start bitching about EZ pain relative to USD weakness then that will move E/U down? And by how much? The fundamentals have not changed and will not until the Fed starts broadcasting about a coming rate hike.

Meanwhile, oil is looking very frothy after about a week of steady gains. 'Tis not the season, though, no? I would expect an oil pullback to go hand in hand with some USD strength in the coming week. A better play on an oil pullback will be USD/CAD - but there is a BOC rate announcement on Tuesday and if nothing changes there and oil falls then U/C could get a big bounce.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #153,354
  • Oct 17, 2009 5:13pm Oct 17, 2009 5:13pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
They said OIL to $200 when it was at $140...how many people did they rob on that recommendation?
They don't discriminate and rob only oil traders. Golden Sacks robs everyone.
  • #153,355
  • Oct 17, 2009 5:51pm Oct 17, 2009 5:51pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
They said OIL to $200 when it was at $140...how many people did they rob on that recommendation?
Good point.

If you want to follow Goldman Sachs's advice, prepare for a burning sensation in your backside. Prepare a large tube of lube and hope to be kissed first.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #153,356
  • Oct 17, 2009 6:37pm Oct 17, 2009 6:37pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
They said OIL to $200 when it was at $140...how many people did they rob on that recommendation?

Well one thing for sure they must be on loss position longing oil. I've been following Goldman vs UBS AG EU forecast in bloomberg, it is very funny seems they are in war to each other. UBS EU Bear while Goldman EU Bull. When the price @ 1.31xx on march i remember it shoot out to 1.37xx in 2 days before coming back to 1.28xx on April and what a coincindence at January Goldman forecast the price to go to 1.35 and UBS below 1.2 (Goldmand 1 UBS 0). And then it sliding up slowly up to 1.35/8 region again. At the time the forecact change to 1.45 by Goldman and 1.33 by UBS and we play at 1.40-1.44 region between July and September too bad Goldman said to investor to close all long position it seems they don't have faith either . And not in a month EU price went up again together with Gold above 1.44 region (Goldman 2 UBS 0). And now the prediction is Goldman 1.55 UBS below 1.43 with 2-0 position. I remember posting up a link to some opinion that price move right now is because big boys killing other big boys so until the loser beat to death this move up will never stop.
  • #153,357
  • Oct 17, 2009 6:48pm Oct 17, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting SerpentDove
Not in in order of importance but this is what I saw going into Friday's close.

1. Positive/Wishful thinking, I have shorts open from 1.8999.

2. While a double bottom was formed Friday on the 4hr, the move up from support was met with selling rather than the slingshot up off of support that has become so expected. It looked to me like distribution of euros on the way back up not accumulation.

3. The profit from the Asian session was in selling the last two sessions.

4. Equities went nowhere but down albeit not far Friday on U.S. and European...
Yeah that is so true from psychological insight, bulls need to worry if 2008 happen again. But right now bears must worry even more because people are dumping dollar. Unless someone will take The Taking of Pelham 123 seriously
  • #153,358
  • Oct 17, 2009 6:57pm Oct 17, 2009 6:57pm
For a while, many people have been speaking of the 1.5000 barrier, right? Many people have been buying expecting the PA to reach that level, me included until recently. Now, for me, my long was set to TP at 4985 rather than 1.5000 due to the possibility that others would be doing the same, and therefore 1.5000 would be even harder to achieve. Who cares about leaving 15 pips on the table? What if instead of people taking profits at 4985, took profits at 4965? The profit taking dropped the PA back to the 4850 area, where others bought again. Profit taking once again occured at 4965, giving us the double top and dropping the PA to 4980.

I think that 1.5000 may now be out of reach and we may see a triple top, but that's as far it goes. Could it be that a reversal is immenent? I don't expect to see the Euro 'tanking', or the dollar 'going into lift off mode', but I do see a gradual rising of the dollar/decline of the euro, from here on in.

Of course, this is just a theory and I may be way wrong, but the closer we get to the green area on my chart, the more I am on the sidelines spectating.

5c

RJ
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #153,359
  • Oct 17, 2009 9:17pm Oct 17, 2009 9:17pm
hi rj,

but why will we fail to reach 1.5?

s&p500 oil gold seems still rather bullish now and they add to the pressure of a weakening dollar.
  • #153,360
  • Oct 17, 2009 10:10pm Oct 17, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting trading801
hi rj,

but why will we fail to reach 1.5?

s&p500 oil gold seems still rather bullish now and they add to the pressure of a weakening dollar.
Hi,

Well like I say, I could be wrong, and now that I have put this online I probably will be!

However, I see 1.5 as a tough nut to crack, and if it isn't cracked soon, I doubt that it will be. The reason I think that it may not get broken is that 1.5 may just be a self fullfilling prophesy.....once 1.5 is reached, job is done and profit taking will remove whatever momentum is available. Perhaps we have seen just that already, a couple of times.

So much for that theory!

On a fundamental side, many of the worlds countries are seeing the 'light at the end of the tunnel' as far as this recession is concerned, and some countries posting a small growth percentage. For example....everything here in NZ was 'doom and gloom' for the past 8-12 months or so. Yet at the last quater we posted a 0.1% growth. Because the growth is on the plus side, however small, people now have more confidence and optimism....which is beginning to spread into the general feeling that the worst is over and we are on the up.....slowly but surely. This is beginning to happen to other countries too. My opinion is that sooner or later USA will experience this, and the dollar will slowly recover.

So, will we reach 1.5 and beyond? Who knows? I am not takng any position (long) until I see 1.5 convincingly broken. I am similarly hesitant to go short becaus I might be wrong, and I don't want to get caught out.

It's a difficult time for me to trade because I truely don't know what to make of this.....other than my theory which I have posted above and expanded on a bit here.

RJ
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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