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  • #99,681
  • May 22, 2009 3:05pm May 22, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting GastonCorzo
at this time no way there is no liquidity week is over you have to wait till market re open
so what u think about holding 4033 long over the weekend ???
any thoughts or analysis
  • #99,682
  • May 22, 2009 3:05pm May 22, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting samoan
have a great weekend everybody it was a very good week for me booked about 400 pips now i am going to play some golf.

The same to you. I may as well watch this right into the close as its quite revealing.
  • #99,683
  • May 22, 2009 3:06pm May 22, 2009 3:06pm
Somebody's momma didn't wash their child's mouth out when they were young.

Twee has better use of his time but there are rules for a reason.

Who?, what?, where?
  • #99,684
  • May 22, 2009 3:15pm May 22, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting samoan
have a great weekend everybody it was a very good week for me booked about 400 pips now i am going to play some golf.
I'm gonna beat you to the tee...soon as wife gets home I am outa here!
  • #99,685
  • May 22, 2009 3:15pm May 22, 2009 3:15pm
I'm going to do something that I've never done before.
My shorts are in profit now and I'm gonna keep them over the weekend.

Up till now I've never kept winners over the weekend, only losers.

I believe that it will retrace further next week. Maybe a couple 100 pips.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,686
  • May 22, 2009 3:19pm May 22, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I'm going to do something that I've never done before.
My shorts are in profit now and I'm gonna keep them over the weekend.

Up till now I've never kept winners over the weekend, only losers.

I believe that it will retrace further next week. Maybe a couple 100 pips.

Join the club.
  • #99,687
  • May 22, 2009 3:21pm May 22, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting Bling
so what u think about holding 4033 long over the weekend ???
any thoughts or analysis
it may, may try to look for previous high just hope for it i am short since 1.4036 and i will be ading more to my short when the market opens ill be just waiting just in case of a last run but this pair is defenetly going down hard
  • #99,688
  • May 22, 2009 3:21pm May 22, 2009 3:21pm
What a wonderful week! I have sold half at 1.4020 expecting a retrace... for almost +600 pips. I wonder where are now those bears in the thread calling 1.19 or less all the time...
Have a nice weekend everybody. and don't go against the FED... if they don't want dollars we don't want dollars... as simple as that.
  • #99,689
  • May 22, 2009 3:25pm May 22, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting notch
Join the club.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,690
  • May 22, 2009 3:26pm May 22, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting emda
What a wonderful week! I have sold half at 1.4020 expecting a retrace... for almost +600 pips. I wonder where are now those bears in the thread calling 1.19 or less all the time...
Have a nice weekend everybody. and don't go against the FED... if they don't want dollars we don't want dollars... as simple as that.
nice!
  • #99,691
  • May 22, 2009 3:36pm May 22, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting KillerWhale

Okay. I'm happy that it's going down .That's all I wanted to see for last 12 hours. I can now go and get some sleep.

Have a great weekend all and see ya after the long weekend!
  • #99,692
  • May 22, 2009 3:51pm May 22, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting notch
Okay. I'm happy that it's going down .That's all I wanted to see for last 12 hours. I can now go and get some sleep.

Have a great weekend all and see ya after the long weekend!
I expect a retrace to 1.3740 as a first target, if the signs will be there on Sunday, I'll be adding shorts.

Happy weekend all

New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,693
  • May 22, 2009 4:07pm May 22, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I expect a retrace to 1.3740 as a first target, if the signs will be there on Sunday, I'll be adding shorts.

Happy weekend all

might have to go through 4073 area first..maybe close to 4105. week just closed above my retrace number..3966. just a thought.. system im test picked a top today.. within a pip..using 4hr chart.. im using weekly now.. i gotta spread number more.. dont trade it.. just testing it now..just posting to keep me honest
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,694
  • May 22, 2009 4:10pm May 22, 2009 4:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
might have to go through 4073 area first..maybe close to 4105. week just closed above my retrace number..3966. just a thought.. system im test picked a top today.. within a pip..using 4hr chart.. im using weekly now.. i gotta spread number more.. dont trade it.. just testing it now..just posting to keep me honest
Let us know what you think when your done testing.

Have a good weekend-- Later Gator

Edit: and a good weekend to everyone else that doesn't have me on ignore
  • #99,695
  • May 22, 2009 4:18pm May 22, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting knuckledrag
and a good weekend to everyone else that doesn't have me on ignore
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,696
  • May 22, 2009 4:21pm May 22, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Let us know what you think when your done testing.

Have a good weekend-- Later Gator
ill never be done.. im 1 for 1 at least.. but it never dropped much after. i posted earlier below 3966 was what we needed for retrace..it didnt happen so mooooo. those new numbers dont mean much yet.. but if they work it will kinda show how the big boys think to me..

those numbers from yesterday we both had did work some, they were respected a little while..even after the news..we could not fight the rating bs. i believe we were rite still. the news was unforseen. the numbers held up till bill gross of pimco ran his mouth..oh well its forex..

bad time to test anything with holiday and all other bs..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,697
  • Edited 5:28pm May 22, 2009 4:25pm | Edited 5:28pm
I spent some time looking at several COT sites and decided I could figure out the math of the calculations they used, so I did. If No one minds, I thought I would post every Friday three chart describing EURO FX commitments.

This is all information available to the public from the CTFC and I have written the algorithms I am using.

The first chart is a normalized net of longs - shorts to a scale of 0 to 100, for a significant length of time, (1.5 years)

Some sites state that a value of extremes (100 and values of 0) indicate Commercials have just become maximum net long or maximum net short and a Reversal in price is likely soon.


Note: check out what happened just after the two extremes listed on the chart.

The Second chart is the Actual Net Positions. For Further information on this, see the article by Kath Lien titled

" Using COT Report To Forecast FX Movements"
from July 20, 2005

The Third chart is the net open interest of COTs.


I know there are lots of sites that have COT information in CFTC and other formats, but this is my take on it and so I have decided if it can be useful to anyone, I will post it. If people find it useful, I would consider opening a new thread with the majors and setting the response level to 10+ to keep it clean and easy to navigate.

If people want this, please just let me know and if there is enough demand, I will set the thread up this weekend and keep it updated every Friday.

Regards, Scott
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 05 19 2009 Open Interest.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #99,698
  • May 22, 2009 4:33pm May 22, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting smjones
I spent some time looking at several COT sites and decided I could figure out the math of the calculations they used, so I did. If No one minds, I thought I would post every Friday three chart describing EURO FX commitments.

This is all information available to the public from the CTFC and I have written the algorithms I am using.

The first chart is a normalized net of longs - shorts to a scale of...
thanks man.. could you give a explanation of third chart for dummies like myself please? ill read later.. have a good wekend folks later..

if u build it they will come
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,699
  • May 22, 2009 4:36pm May 22, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
ill never be done.. im 1 for 1 at least.. but it never dropped much after. i posted earlier below 3966 was what we needed for retrace..it didnt happen so mooooo. those new numbers dont mean much yet.. but if they work it will kinda show how the big boys think to me..

those numbers from yesterday we both had did work some, they were respected a little while..even after the news..we could not fight the rating bs. i believe we were rite still. the news was unforseen. the numbers held up till bill gross of pimco ran his mouth..oh well its forex.....

The numbers we had did work Gator. Short below long above

I'm still holding one long from 3870 or something like that. I've closed my platforms so I may be off. A plan works two ways up and down. Just putting all our eggs in one basket works, but only if you don't trip.

I've got chicken on the grill, so later
  • #99,700
  • May 22, 2009 4:36pm May 22, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
thanks man.. could you give a explanation of third chart for dummies like myself please? ill read later.. have a good wekend folks later..

if u build it they will come
Please google a copy of the article by Kathy Lien I listed above for the explanation.

I have a copy, but am not sure if it is ok to post it. I will email Kathy and see if I can post the article. Until then you can get it through a Google search.
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