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Milking The Cable Trend

  • #21
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:32pm Oct 16, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting Superscalper
ok, it sound ok
i dont belive at all on moving avg -dont take it personely cos its not
show what u discaver
looking forword to see how thise thred developd
i will be patient
heve a nice week end
Thanks for the apology, I think. When you call someone a scam artist it is personal. Apology accepted, have a nice weekend yoursef.
  • #22
  • Oct 16, 2009 3:09pm Oct 16, 2009 3:09pm
Here is an interresting one. The end of last week, if you had entered a breakout entry on the first arrow, you would be in the trade, but the 3ema has not yet crossed. If you used a 40 pip stop, which I recommend, you would not have been stopped out, and would have profited, but you would not have known that until Sunday evening. On Sunday's opening, I would wait for the confirmed cross, as direction can often change on the opening for the week.
Next I will go into part B.....
If you have questions about entering please post and use a chart picture if necessary.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23
  • Edited 4:47pm Oct 16, 2009 3:14pm | Edited 4:47pm
ONE LAST POST FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO BE CHALLENGERS:
I challenge YOU to find any two week period where the part A of this system lost money! Of course, that would require you to actually study the method and do some work. I have only gone back 6 months, as stated before, and just the "Part A" of this system has done quite well.
Also, it seems like it would be easy to build an EA to backtest confirmed crosses, I hope someone more technical than myself will do that.
Thank You
Michael
  • #24
  • Oct 16, 2009 5:02pm Oct 16, 2009 5:02pm
Hi allivemind. I've looked at many technical systems over the past 3 years and moving average crossovers always tend to end up break even over the long run, or so they tell me. My other concerns would be 1. ma's lag price movement so you are naturally late to the market and can miss most of the move and 2. Whipsaws in sideways markets will hurt you.

Not! that I'm trying to put you off or anything as you quite rightly say, we haven't seen part B yet. I tell you what if I get a bit of time I'll go and manually test it Forex Tester, I've got data going back to 2000.

Go and enjoy your weekend.
Keep smiling
  • #25
  • Oct 16, 2009 7:19pm Oct 16, 2009 7:19pm
Alllivemind,

I hope my spelling is up to your level... I'm thinking it won't be

I don't know if this will be of any help but I have been trading the Cornflower system for some time now (can be found on page 1 or 2 of the trading systems fourm) I can see your system is not really same but I have struggled with the same stop and take profit levels. I have attached some charts, chart one show a normal entry for me with price bouncing off the 24 ema, I use this candle and would place an entry order at the top (+5 pips) and a stop order under (-5 pips) Take profit is 1.5 x risk, leaving half to run if I feel like being greedy that day(s).... as you can see nothing new there.

The 2nd chart is something I have been trying, two 12 EMAs set to high and low when a candle closes across the bottom (or if price is just stuck in the middle) then I close and take the pips. also the first circle at the trade entry is to show how long price was stuck in the middle and just moved sideways.. all the same it was a good place to enter.

I know this might not have much to do with your system but maybe it will help... I don't know


All the best

Bob
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  • #26
  • Oct 16, 2009 7:48pm Oct 16, 2009 7:48pm
Hi Allivemind

Still reading this thread and eagerly awaiting part B of this system and what other findings you have found so far.

Regarding entry points, I think I prefer pullbacks due to the smaller SL and looking at recent set ups, it appears that in most of the cases price tests the MAs before continuing in the direction of the signal....just my 2 cents worth http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Have a good weekend everyone.

Cheers
Ezzy
What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #27
  • Oct 17, 2009 12:47am Oct 17, 2009 12:47am
first of all, many thanks.

this is not a regular dumb ma cross system, because human factors are used here.

your system is great on how to enter. however, you have not elaborated your way of exiting, if i got it right.

therefore, there is no way to make an EA to backtest your idea ideally.

however, for a ma cross system, trust me and many others who said same thing before, it won't work in a mechanical way. they siimply don't earn.

for example, a 3 x 34 EA, confirmed entry, then when should it exit? 100pips TP? or 80 pips TP? won't matter, I tell you right away, there is NOT a fixed TP number can be profitable consistently. That's why your human-brain decisions are essential and why your system looks great.

let's focus on how to decide, instead of EA backtesting, hoho.

Quoting alllivemind
ONE LAST POST FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO BE CHALLENGERS:
I challenge YOU to find any two week period where the part A of this system lost money! Of course, that would require you to actually study the method and do some work. I have only gone back 6 months, as stated before, and just the "Part A" of this system has done quite well.
Also, it seems like it would be easy to build an EA to backtest confirmed crosses, I hope someone more technical than myself will do that.
Thank You
Michael
  • #28
  • Edited 1:38am Oct 17, 2009 1:26am | Edited 1:38am
Thanks to all of you above who have posted intellegent feedback and offered help. I will try to answer you individually soon. Bob in a bottle, dont worry about spelling that much, I actually don't. I was simply responding to someone who obviously didn't even check out what I was trying to say or look at the charts dumping negativity and making accusations.
Although the Avatar I have chosen has quite a scowl, I'm actually a fun even tempered guy with a huge sense of humor.
And thanks to those who have observered that this is by no means a simple ma cross system. I was just curious how it would come out if we tested the 3ema over the 34 sma.
Have a great weekend, all!
(Maybe I need to change that Avatar!)
  • #29
  • Oct 17, 2009 8:28am Oct 17, 2009 8:28am
I wasnt going to post to somebody else's system thread, but this system is very familliar to me so... I'm gonna say a few words. Hope you don't mind. I also am a trend trader, and did something very similar to yours a year ago. This system did really well at the beginning. but...unfortunately, my account got killed during the series of huge volatilities that just start the postions and snap the other way against me. Hope your part B has some solutions for this. Please be careful.
Now Im working on with a new trend system which I am currently testing but still have some suspicions.

Maybe you also want to check this thread too.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=68181

By far I think this is the best that a trend system can get... but still cannot solve their problem perfectly. Maybe you will.

Hope you have a great weekend.
K
  • #30
  • Oct 17, 2009 10:04am Oct 17, 2009 10:04am
have some results with TF Diary?
  • #31
  • Oct 17, 2009 12:18pm Oct 17, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting The K
I wasnt going to post to somebody else's system thread, but this system is very familliar to me so... I'm gonna say a few words. Hope you don't mind. I also am a trend trader, and did something very similar to yours a year ago. This system did really well at the beginning. but...unfortunately, my account got killed during the series of huge volatilities that just start the postions and snap the other way against me. Hope your part B has some solutions for this. Please be careful.
Now Im working on with a new trend system which I am currently testing...
Great K,
This is the kind of feeback I'm looking for. I will study the thread when I get a chance. My closest stop is 40, and in the last 3 months I have not seen more than 3 losses in a row, and have not yet seen 3 full 40 pip losses in a row. The system consistently makes runs of 100-500 (the last trade went over 500 pips), so we have to be prepared to lose 100-150 or maybe more. There are many two week periods that make over 800. I have not talked of MM yet, but will get to it. Hope you keep coming in, and we will work out the kinks together.
  • #32
  • Oct 17, 2009 3:39pm Oct 17, 2009 3:39pm
Please pm me. I would like to talk to you about a couple of things. I use Skype, MSN or Yahoo sometimes.
  • #33
  • Oct 18, 2009 1:28pm Oct 18, 2009 1:28pm
OK, here is the beginning or part B. This is all about re-entering and doing shorter term daytrades once the trend has established. We are looking for pullbacks to the moving averages, especially ones that go near the 20 and the 34. We are also looking for price rejection from the area which usually appear in the form of wicks on the candles, so the first example on the chart below is not our perfect setup, but the second example is pretty much the perfect setup: Long wick, right up to the 20, plus the fact that it was jut before the London opening. I only take these trades during times when the market is known to move.
I usually take these trades by putting a buy/sell stop above/below the low/high of the closed candle. We can go into Money management later, but please examine the examples and see if you can find others in the last month or more.
In this first example, imagine that you entered by the part A rules, and then milked the trend by adding in on the pullbacks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34
  • Oct 18, 2009 9:01pm Oct 18, 2009 9:01pm
Hi Everyone,
I will be back soon to go into more detail about the above chart, but I wanted to post because a trade is setting up right now. Will it be a winner? I have no idea. Please use a demo account unless you are a seasoned trader. If price stays where it is right now or goes lower, we will have a cross of the 3 ema over the 34 sma. I use a 40 pip stop at first.
OK, the candle closed, I'm short at 1.6298
Because there was a huge rally last week, I am vigilant in case of reversal.
  • #35
  • Edited 11:42pm Oct 18, 2009 11:01pm | Edited 11:42pm
OK that one was a loser. -40, full stop. Now I'm long at 1.6341
If you think I'm worried read the rules, get my template and look at the last 3 trades. They made over 850 pips! Yes, I took some off at lower numbers but if you take my advice and left at least half in until the reverse cross you would have made well over 450!
I'm looking for the long runs and don't mind losing a few along the way.
edit: I put a reversal stop at 1.6306. This thing seems to want to yo yo for awhile.
  • #36
  • Oct 18, 2009 11:39pm Oct 18, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting The K
I wasnt going to post to somebody else's system thread, but this system is very familliar to me so... I'm gonna say a few words. Hope you don't mind. I also am a trend trader, and did something very similar to yours a year ago. This system did really well at the beginning. but...unfortunately, my account got killed during the series of huge volatilities that just start the postions and snap the other way against me. Hope your part B has some solutions for this. Please be careful.
Now Im working on with a new trend system which I am currently testing...
Dont see the point K. He is not sharing the system. Meanwhile I'm making money. Always wanting to do better though!
  • #37
  • Oct 19, 2009 12:15am Oct 19, 2009 12:15am
He actually says that he gave everything out to make the exact same system (Calculations, etc). But its like the hardest math problem I've ever seen lol. Still not sure if he really gave out the answers. However, I understand why he is not sharing his system. Because once people find out that his system works, then everyone will follow it. And then, the system won't work anymore. Its like the birth-death cycle of almost every great system.
  • #38
  • Edited 8:52am Oct 19, 2009 1:03am | Edited 8:52am
I believe that Murphy's law states that the moment I start posting trades after a nice winning streak I'll have some losers. OK, so now I'm short at 1.6306, with a 35 pip loss. Down 75 total. If it keeps whipping like this I will draw channel lines and take Breakouts only.
edit: looks like we have some good commitment to the downside although you never know. I will update this trade here as I want to post how to do my daytrade system all in one place.
First target is 1.6271, 35 pips.
edit #2: 10:21 (FXDD time) Ok, the short trade hit T1, for 35 pips. I only took off 20%. I moved the stop to BE.
edit #3: stopped at BE
  • #39
  • Oct 19, 2009 1:52am Oct 19, 2009 1:52am
Hi Allli and all

Finding this system interesting!

Alllivemind, I hope you don't mind me posting a chart and commenting on it.

First post is daily time frame. We see price approaching a nice trendline, also it has reached 50% fibs.

On the hourly price is crossing emas backwards and forwards at the moment, price may be indecisive at this stage.

I think I may wait for either a cross of emas closer to the trendline, or enter if emas cross, retrace and continue down.

Just some thoughts Allli, please comment. I'm still learning.

Cheers
Ezzy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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What you do is a reflection of you....what I do is a reflection of me.
  • #40
  • Oct 19, 2009 2:09am Oct 19, 2009 2:09am
Dear alllivemind,

Please do not mind for my foolish question, where do I put the milk.tpl file? I have been reading your post from start to end and I'm very much interested in following you. I like to know how to enter a trade using your system. Sorry for being pest, I have lots of FX dream but very less knowledge, I'm willing to learn!
Holding my candle high up, my mentor lit it up once!!
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