Milking The Cable Trend

I believe I have discovered a very profitable system, and I wish to share it with the members of Forex Factory. Special thanks to the many who have contributed so much and helped me along the way.
In addition to helping others, I hope to gain the following:
1. Tweaking of this system. Feel free to contribute, but one of my goals is KISS! Keep It Short and Simple! I probably need the most help in MM
2. This system is a 24 hour job if it is to be done right. I hope to form a posse of 3-5 of us that see the value of the system and agree to have at least one of us "on watch" at all times. As a signal develops, we can SMS the others. It's not as hard as you may think, as we mostly use hourly charts.
The chart setup uses 7 different moving averages:
3, 9, 20, 55 and 89 ema
34 and 170 simple ma
all set to close.
I will attach the template, so I don't have to go into all the colors, ect.
I also use the awesome oscillator, but probably your favorite will do. All of these indicators are standard in MT4, as far as I know.

What I really think you'll like is that this is a system within a system. So first part A, which I'm sure many of you will recognize.
On an hour chart when the gold 3 ema crosses the black 34 sma on a completed candle, go with the trend. Exit on the next cross when you reverse. Pretty simple, eh?
Use a 40 pip stop at first, or place stop over/under last swing low. Take off 25% at 35 pips and move stop to BE. Then based on the remainder, take off 10% at 50, 100 150 ect. Keep 40-50% of original position until we get to either an opposite cross or an exit formation, such as a double top/bottom, or an obvious divergence. We will be discussing this part a lot. I will be back with chart examples, ect, but even without the extra rules I'll be discussing, bring up the template and you will see quite a few runs of 100-300 pips, and sometimes much more. Yes there are some losers, sometimes 2-4 in a row. Is it worth it to be down 100 pips while you wait for the 300 pip move? You will also find many cases of 2-3 or more 100-300 pips wins in a row. Check it out.
I'll be discussing the "A" part of the system first, before I go into the "B" part. Please be patient we will get there. Also, as much as I really do want feedback, please wait until I can reveal what I have so far, as there is much more than what I have shared so far.

Hi Allli

Interesting, I look forward to finding out more about this system.

It sound very simple and amazing... I am waiting for your next explanation.

Look forward to more..

Wow guys, thread management is more than I thought! Here is a chart of a pretty choppy 4 days.
Four profitable trades, requiring a lot of patience, only one 24 pip loser. Except for the last one, the "winners" were close to BE, because of the low amounts we take off at profit points. Sometimes I skip the one at 50 and go for 80. I hope my chart drawing skills improve as we continue!
The rules have not all been published, can you figure them out? Scroll forward on your chart to the last full week and you will see why I take such small amounts off at the targets. But the last trade on this chart made over 94 pips! Why over? Because we took some off at 35, 50, 100, and 150.
Magnify the chart and tell me if it's clear enough.

OK, Here are the next two trades following the chart above. Starting here I will include a 4 pip spread on the buy side. So in the last two weeks we had a little chop but then 3 great winners in a row! In the following days I will post additional rules and eventually get to part B, where I'll talk abolut all those moving averages.

I like the look of this system - it seems like you've developed an effective way of riding the trends based on the sample trades you've posted so far. The key will of course be in Part B.

I'm wondering if you take into account any sort of S&R levels? The fact that you watch for reversal patterns like double top/bottoms, divergence and so on makes it sound like you've got more going on than the usual MA cross "systems" that get posted here all the time.

I'll definitely be watching this thread with interest over the next few days!

Oh also, I would guess you take some profit when the 3EMA crosses the 9 & 20 EMAs.

Thanks Mindsphere,
I do take those things into account, but one thing at a time. My main point is that you could just use the averages and do well. I think I could probably have a better target system, so that part is definitely up for discussion. I have manually backtested for 6 months and this has come out well ahead. I'm hoping some backtesting genius can program an EA for just this part and go back 2-5 years or so. For what is coming I don't think an EA can do it, it will require thinking! And yes, when I am a good amount ahead, I am very likely to take some more off when the 3 crosses the 9 or 20, especially when we have top/bottom formations.

I don't believe any truly mechanical system can work consistently. I just threw together some code which traded the 3EMA cross, and the equity bounces up and down, but overall it's flat. That is not taking into account the concept of scaling out of the position, of course. But I do not think any amount of MM can turn a pure MA cross trading method into a profitable one.

That said, I think if your system does have discretionary elements I believe it may be profitable. Hence I'm interested to see what else you have to show us

So you have 7 MA's in your system but appear to only use 2 of them? Or are the other 5 MA's in Part B of the system?

Andy

OK guys, I'm back. I had a pretty full day with my business and personal life but I will go on to the next step.
Besides the obvious enemy of the trend trader, a sideways market, our next biggest problem is long candles. When the 3 ema crosses the 34 sma on an hour chart, we want to enter. If we are wrong, we want to reverse when it crosses the other way. We also want to use a 35-40 pip stop. So my feeling is I really don't want my entry price to be more than 25 pips above the 34, and 20 pips or less would be really ideal. It's really disheartening to enter a trade, get stopped out, only to have it continue in your direction!
I have several ways around this problem. Breakouts, retraces to Ma's, or % of length from the 34 retraces.
My favorite is the breakout. The breakout entry requires a certain formation that doesn't always happen, hence the other methods. Retraces happen frequently, but not always. With breakouts, we never miss a trade. I will post some examples below:

You see how opening a trade would have left about 50 pips to the 34? That is too far for my taste. So I would normally choose to enter on the break of the most recent high. We can choose the high of the previous candle (the green line), or the high of the candle 8 hours ago (the red line). Since it was in a range for over 24 hours, the second choice is certainly the most conservative. But after the double bottom, I put half entry on one and half on the other. This is up to the individual trader.
I had my orders in before the long candle happened. I have missed too many good moves and have learned to do this.
Another possibility is to catch the retrace. If we went for having 25 pips to the 34 (remember I like 20 or less a lot better), and we counted even 3 pips of spread, we never would have gotten filled.
Currently Im in a trade at 5823. You can find my entry on your chart 2 and a half days ago. The market is at 1.6360. Well I slept through the breakout, but caught the retrace!
If you need me to post that chart I will. I hope that most of you use your template and do your own homework.

hello!
is this system for cable only?i have attached your template to ej and eu and it looks ok to me

Here is another one. Usually I feel like a genius when I do a breakout entry, because there are so may long candles. This one I would be better off to have waited, but since even the BO entry was ahead 276 pips at it's best I can't really complain.

HI put same real live trads so we could see thet it realy work
to put same piky chart from the past and say look how great thise work
its nothing! its look like scam!

prove u r metod work!

Of course, Maklla. It works on most pairs, although on the E/$ I have not liked the action lately. I like EJ, GJ, and GBP/CHF looks really good lately. I find I cannot watch too many 24/7 and get good sleep. Plus I feel that if I am going to play with one pair, I need to take every signal and go all the way with it.

Superscalper,
First of all you may want to learn how to spell. Secondly, I am not here to prove anything. If I did scam you, how do I profit? I'm simply sharing, looking to improve, and looking for some other traders who like this system and want to team up, as I said in the first post.
I will be posting some live trades before they happen after I get the educational part done. But if I have 5 winners in a row what does that prove? Every system has a good run. I have only manually tested back 6 months and would like some help, as I stated in an earlier post, to go back even farther. You need to prove it to yourself! I'm suspecting you have not even read the entire thread, which is pretty short so far.
If you are looking to challenge me and argue, please go to another thread, or perhaps even another website. I have not even reavealed the second half of the system yet, which I will try to do over the weekend.
Please be patient.
ps: are you really "Super" at scalping?

Sir, so what position have you taken last? short or long gbp/usd and at what price n take profit?
Thanks in advance, i will be following this thread now, its really very interesting n i am all for more knowledge.

ok, it sound ok
i dont belive at all on moving avg -dont take it personely cos its not
show what u discaver
looking forword to see how thise thred developd
i will be patient
heve a nice week end

Seems everyone is so concerned with what position I have. Folks, it's about the long term. Have you ever blown up an account? I have. And in the process I had many winning trades. If you must know, my last popsition I went long at 10/13/09 on the 16:00 FXDD time candle at 1.5823. I am still in the trade at 1.6353. I really would like people to study the last two weeks of trading before asking questions, and to ask questions about the system, not questions that challenge, especially when I have not even finished explaining it yet!
So my policy will be this: I will not even respond to these kind of questions anymore, but I welcome questions about testing, tweaking, improving and understanding. I make money almost every day with this system, but I am not holding myself up as any kind of market guru. I'm just a researcher looking to improve myself and do even better.